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Domestic Textile Demand Is Good, Cotton Price Hit Annual High In August

2021/9/14 13:08:00 0

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In August, there was a slight increase in the output of reserve cotton round, and the enterprises were actively bidding, and all transactions continued to be completed, and the transaction price rose. Relevant departments issued policies, reserved cotton rotation trading is limited to textile enterprises. During the month, textile production remained normal, new orders decreased slightly, yarn and other textile products inventory pressure was large, and the price increase was reduced. Affected by the above factors, the domestic cotton price rose in the first ten days, fell slightly in the last ten days, and the monthly average price rose sharply. Over the same period, international cotton prices rose sharply, higher than domestic cotton prices, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed compared with last month.

1、 Changes in spot prices at home and abroad

1. Domestic spot prices rose sharply month on month

In August, the turnover of reserve cotton was hot, with a turnover rate of 100% and a rise in transaction price. Driven by the rising prices of futures and reserve cotton, the spot price of cotton rose all the way, reaching an annual high on August 18, with the price of 18542 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the state issued policies to restrict non textile enterprises from bidding for reserve cotton, and the transaction price of reserve cotton and spot fell. Textile enterprises demand better in the month, especially in the late ten days of the month, textile enterprises purchase more. At the end of the month, China's cotton price index (ccindex3128b) was 18127 yuan / ton, up 396 yuan month on month; The average monthly price was 18016 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1071 yuan and a year-on-year increase of 5540 yuan.

2. The price of long staple cotton goes up

In August, the price of domestic long staple cotton rose sharply due to the rising price of fine wool cotton, the gradual scarcity of resources and the better textile demand. At the end of the month, the 137 grade transaction price was 28300 yuan / ton, up 800 yuan month on month, higher than the same period of China cotton price index (ccindex3128b) 10173 yuan, and the price difference was 404 yuan larger than that at the end of the previous month.

3. The international cotton price rises, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices shrinks

In August, the spot price of international cotton rose sharply, but the average price was still lower than the domestic cotton price. China's import cotton price index fcindexm was 105.05 cents / pound, up 5.34 cents month on month; At the end of the month, it was 107 cents / pound, up 5.08 cents month on month. The 1% tariff was reduced to 17037 yuan / ton, which was lower than 1090 yuan of domestic spot in the same period. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton was reduced by 590 yuan compared with the end of last month.

4. The price of cotton yarn products tends to be weak

In August, the new orders of textile enterprises decreased slightly, most textile enterprises prepared for the traditional peak season, and the downstream sales conductivity was slightly poor, which led to the high inventory pressure of yarn products. Cotton yarn category of textile products increased slightly, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber prices fell to varying degrees. Specifically, the transaction price of pure cotton yarn kc32s and combed jc40s was 27300 yuan / ton and 31350 yuan / ton at the end of last month, which increased by 150 yuan and 50 yuan respectively compared with the end of last month; Polyester staple fiber was 6930 yuan / ton at the end of the month, 470 yuan lower than that at the end of last month, while viscose staple fiber was 12700 yuan / ton at the end of last month, down 150 yuan from last month.

2、 Analysis of the factors influencing the price changes at home and abroad

1. In August, the turnover of reserved cotton was 206400 tons

In August, the total volume of reserved cotton was 206400 tons, an increase of 15300 tons compared with the previous month, and the total transaction volume was 206400 tons, with a transaction rate of 100%. The average transaction price was 17408 yuan / ton, up 624 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, or 18683 yuan / ton at 3128 yuan / ton, and 703 yuan / ton on a month on month basis. Among them, the turnover of Xinjiang cotton was 147700 tons, an increase of 211 thousand tons on a month on month basis, with an average transaction price of 17461 yuan / ton, or 18797 yuan / ton converted into 3128 yuan / ton; The transaction volume of real estate cotton was 58600 tons, a decrease of 5900 tons on a month on month basis, with an average transaction price of 17275 yuan / ton, or 18395 yuan / ton at 3128 yuan.

2. Only textile cotton enterprises can participate in bidding

On August 23, the relevant departments issued an announcement that from August 24, 2021 to the end of the current year's rotation, only textile cotton enterprises can participate in the bidding, and non-textile cotton enterprises will be stopped from participating in the bidding.

3. Cotton export volume decreased, highway freight increased

In August 2021, a total of 233900 tons of cotton were shipped from Xinjiang, a decrease of 27200 tons or 10.4% on a month on month basis. Among them, 106900 tons were transported by road, 49800 tons were decreased on a month on month basis, and 57800 tons were increased on a year-on-year basis. The total transportation volume of Xinjiang specialized storage cotton exported through railway was 127000 tons, with an increase of 22600 tons on a month on month basis and a decrease of 11300 tons on a year-on-year basis. From the perspective of transportation price, the highway freight rate of cotton in August increased month on month; In terms of railways, the floating standard adjusted on July 6 still remains unchanged.

4. Zheng cotton futures closed down at the end of the month and registered warehouse receipts decreased significantly

In August, Zheng cotton futures rose first and then fell, and the overall average price rose sharply compared with the previous month. As of August 31, the settlement price of the main contract cf201 at the end of the month was 17440 yuan / ton, down 245 yuan or 1.40% from 17685 yuan / ton at the end of last month. At the end of the month, 8467 warehouse receipts were registered, which were converted into 338700 tons, a decrease of 200900 tons compared with the end of last month, and a significant decrease in registered warehouse receipts.

5. Textile yarn inventory increases

In August, the overall production situation of textile enterprises remained normal, new orders decreased slightly, the start-up rate of enterprises was still high, and the demand for cotton raw materials was still good. Textile enterprises to prepare for the traditional peak season, yarn inventory increased.