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India: How Much Cotton Is Expected To Export This Year

2021/11/2 16:57:00 28

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? ? ? ? According to the latest forecast of CAI, the total cotton output of India in 2021 / 22 will reach 6.122 million tons, an increase of 2.03% over the previous year; In late September, the Ministry of agriculture and farmer welfare of India estimated that the cotton production would still be 36.22 million bales (170 kg / bag, about 6.157 million tons), an increase of 2.4% over last year. According to the latest USDA report, India's total cotton output in 2021 / 22 will be 6.096 million tons, and the gap between the three prices is obviously narrowed.

? ? ? Some private cotton enterprises in Gujarat, Punjab and other places believe that India's cotton production in 2021 / 22 is unlikely to exceed 6 million tons, or in the range of 5.9-5.95 million tons. On the one hand, the actual yield of seed cotton harvested by farmers is 3% - 5% lower than the measured yield, which is mainly affected by excessive rainfall in September / October and insect attack in main cotton producing areas; On the other hand, the cut-off date of the three machine survey was before the end of September, which did not fully reflect the changes of yield per unit area in some cotton producing areas of India.

? ? ? ? With the data of cotton output and final inventory of India gradually coming to light this year, the issue of how much cotton India can export in 2021 / 22 has aroused concern and fierce debate. According to the latest USDA report, there are about 1.263 million tons of cotton. Cai, CCI and other government agencies predict that India's cotton export volume will be about 1-1.1 million tons in this year, while some Indian cotton enterprises and international cotton merchants look down on Indian cotton export and think that it can only reach 5-5.5 million bales (about 85-935 million tons).

It is judged that there is little hope that India's cotton export will exceed 1 million tons or even 900 thousand tons. The reasons are as follows: ?

? ? ? ? First of all, driven by the soaring purchase price of seed cotton, the strong rebound of domestic demand and the 10% tariff imposed by the government on imported cotton, the property price of Indian cotton is lower than that of American cotton and Brazilian cotton, and the export competitiveness is weakening. From the quotation, the basis price difference between Indian cotton and American cotton has shrunk to 6-8 cents / pound since late October.

? ? ? ? Secondly, the S-6 in Gujarat, which is attractive to buyers from China and Vietnam, has declined in color grade and quality index due to prolonged rainfall. S-6 may not be the S-6 expected by purchasers. Recently, some international cotton merchants and domestic cotton import and export companies have dropped a large part of Indian cotton resources quotation for 2021 / 22 shipping period in January / March, which may be related to insufficient quality and delayed delivery.

? ? ? ? Thirdly, recently, the Indian Textile Association and other institutions have asked for policies to restrict India's cotton exports, so as to meet the domestic demand, which makes Indian cotton export enterprises, international cotton merchants and buyers from China, Bangladesh and Vietnam worry about warming up and operate cautiously. Once the contract cannot be executed, or they may face claims. In addition, according to statistics, at present, China's main ports bonded, customs clearance, India's cotton supply in 2020 / 21, 2019 / 20 is still relatively sufficient, forming a certain pressure on the signing of long-term shipping.