Report Of Securities Companies: Foreign Demand Of Textile And Clothing Has Bright Spot, Domestic Demand Has Toughness

Industry review in 2021: (1) textile manufacturing: the improvement of external demand environment + the influence of Southeast Asia epidemic situation, and the return of orders is beneficial to the domestic export industry chain. In the second half of the year, external disturbance factors increased, leading bargaining power improved. (2) Brand clothing and fashion consumption: domestic consumption showed a trend of high before and low after, and the growth rate in the second half of the year was significantly slowed down due to multiple factors. Among them, sportswear and cosmetics performed better, home textiles and medium and high-end women's wear performed steadily, while public leisure and men's wear were relatively weak.

The secondary market performance of the board in 2021: the overall performance of the board is between CSI300 and gem index. The characteristics of bull stocks in the industry in 2021 are as follows: (1) the leading companies in the high prosperity sub sectors are stronger. (2) Since the second half of the year, the consumption structure of "hot outside and cold inside" appears, and the performance of export manufacturing leader is stronger than that of brand consumption.

Industry outlook in 2022: (1) textile manufacturing: foreign demand certainty is high, export manufacturing orders are expected to grow steadily. Some manufacturing leaders with a high proportion of overseas production capacity are expected to achieve more flexible growth in 2021 on a low base. After the baptism of the epidemic, the domestic leading manufacturing companies are expected to further increase their market share in the global segment. (2) Brand clothing: the K-type differentiation of domestic consumption is further highlighted, anti-monopoly accelerates online traffic migration, and the rise of content e-commerce has become the breakthrough point of differentiated competition. Through the changes of inventory digestion, channel upgrading and customer group iteration, local top brands will continue to move forward on the road of youth and high-end, and the product innovation ability and business efficiency will continue to improve.

Important industry catalysts and variables: (1) national self-confidence is the strongest basic factor for the rise of local brands. In 2021, a series of internal and external events strengthened the recognition of local brands by domestic consumers. For example, the short-term topicality and explosive growth of hongxingerke reflected the huge market share potential of local brands. (2) Under the background of dual carbon, the green upgrading of industry is a new opportunity for the development of the industry. (3) The epidemic situation is still an important factor affecting the recovery of domestic consumption. In 2022, we need to continue to pay attention to the expectation of changes in epidemic prevention and control policies brought about by vaccine and drug research and development. With the recovery of social activities, the demand for clothing, cosmetics, jewelry and other optional consumption will increase.

Investment proposal and investment target

Looking forward to 2022, the consumption structure of "hot outside and cold inside" superimposed on China's more recognized, more stable and powerful supply chain capacity, it is expected that the prosperity of export manufacturing will be better than that of brand clothing focusing on domestic demand, and some leading manufacturing companies that have gradually verified the logic of sustained growth of current performance are expected to enjoy a certain valuation premium. In terms of brand clothing and fashion consumption, considering China's huge population base, consumption upgrading in low-level cities and national tide, the overall development is still resilient, showing a trend of low-end before high-end throughout the year. In view of the current low position of the plate and the consistent pessimistic expectation of the market, we believe that the current time point is a good left layout time point for the industry leaders in the subdivision industry. To maintain the "optimistic" rating of the plate, the industry will still focus on structural opportunities in 2022. In terms of sub industries, our medium and long-term first choices are still high prosperity sports apparel and big beauty (cosmetics and medical beauty). Among them, sports apparel recommends Li Ning (02331, buy), Anta sports (02020, buy), Huali group (300979, buy) and Shenzhou International (02313, buy), etc., and suggest paying attention to Tebu International (01368, buy) and taobo (06110, increase Holdings), In the medium and long term, the big beauty sector is optimistic about pelaia (603605, buy), betaine (300957, increase), Shanghai Jiahua (600315, increase), Maru (603983, increase), Huaxi Biology (688363, not rated) and aimike (300896, not rated). In the traditional clothing sector, Weixing shares (002003, buy), bosden (03998, buy), Zhejiang nature (605080, buy), Luolai life (002293, increase), Senma clothing (002563, buy), etc. It is suggested to pay attention to baoxiniao (002154, not rated) and Shengtai group (605138, not rated).

Risk tips: repeated outbreaks and macroeconomic fluctuations, trade friction, the impact of cotton price and exchange rate fluctuations on export-oriented enterprises, the evolution of e-commerce pattern and the possible impact of flow redistribution on brand companies.