Economic Situation In The Year Of The Tiger

In 2021, China's high-quality economic development has achieved new results and achieved a good start to the "14th five year plan". In 2022, how should we look at the macroeconomic situation? How to look at the hot issues concerned by the market.

Relevant experts believe that China's macro-economy is in a stable and good trend, the steady growth policy is expected to continue to be issued, more investment opportunities will emerge in the high-quality development of China's economy, the real estate market will maintain stable and healthy development, and the development prospect of China's capital market will be good for a long time.

There is no change in the trend of China's macroeconomic stability and improvement

Q: at present, economic development is facing more difficulties and challenges. How should we look at this year's macroeconomic situation?

Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China: Although China's economy is facing the triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations, the trend of stable and good macroeconomic growth this year has not changed. The continuously decreasing unemployment rate, basically stable price level, stable macro leverage ratio, continuous strengthening of scientific and technological innovation, continuous improvement of international competitiveness and comprehensive strengthening of human capital all determine that China's economic growth potential is constantly strengthened, and China's economy is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2022.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC: in the medium and long term, our confidence in China's economic development potential remains unchanged. At present, China's economic development is facing some challenges. However, the central economic work conference put forward the idea of "taking economic construction as the central task" and "making progress while maintaining stability". This shows that the policy level has made adequate preparations. Generally speaking, there is a time lag from the policy introduction to the effect, but it will not be too long. Therefore, the economic growth rate in 2022 will be low before and high after.

Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Jingdong group: in the second half of 2021, with multiple shocks interwoven, the downward pressure on China's economy will increase. However, China will still achieve 8.1% economic growth in the whole year, ranking first among the major economies in the world, showing great development vitality and resilience. Looking forward to 2022, exports, foreign investment, green investment, high-tech investment and digital economy will still provide solid support for China's high-quality economic development. In the medium and long term, with the deepening of the important tasks of reform and opening up in the outline of the 14th five year plan, the construction of a new development pattern is accelerated, and the vitality of China's economy will continue to increase, achieving steady improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity.

Stable growth policy is expected to continue

　　 Q: at present, the market pays more attention to the introduction of policies in the economic field. What should we do about it?

Liu Yuanchun: the central economic work conference stressed that the adjustment of policies and the promotion of reform should grasp the time and efficiency, adhere to the principle of "establishing first, then breaking down" and "playing steadily". From the current situation of policy introduction, the signal of "stability" is obvious: first, the connotation of prudent monetary policy has been moderately adjusted, policies such as reducing reserve rate and interest rate have been implemented, and Inclusive Finance has been further strengthened; Second, proactive fiscal policies were launched ahead of schedule, and the new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022 was issued to all localities in advance; Third, the investment growth rate in 2022 announced by most provinces and cities in the work report of local governments is higher than that of GDP, and the scale of infrastructure investment is moderately advanced; Fourth, the general office of the State Council issued the "opinions on doing a good job in cross cycle regulation and further stabilizing foreign trade", and the Ministry of Commerce determined 2022 as the "year of consolidation and promotion of foreign trade", and further issued relevant policies to stabilize foreign demand.

Peng Wensheng: the probability rate of monetary policy will be adjusted flexibly according to the economic operation, and there is still room for further reduction of reserve rate and interest rate. Besides traditional infrastructure construction, green investment, tax reduction and fee reduction, and transfer payment are also important directions for policy development. It is believed that policies conducive to economic stability will continue to be introduced and implemented with effective results. The introduction of contractive policies will be cautious, and the possibility of overlapping regulatory policies of related industries will be greatly reduced.

Shen Jianguang: under the guidance of firmly adhering to the "two unshakable" principle and correctly understanding and grasping the characteristics and behavior rules of capital, the regulatory system of platform economy, which pays equal attention to both standardization and development, will be gradually improved, which will contribute to the long-term and healthy development of the platform economy and boost the enterprises' expectations and confidence.

More investment opportunities will emerge

Q: as China's economy continues to move towards high-quality development, what new investment opportunities will all parties usher in?

Liu Yuanchun: first, China's self-reliance in science and technology must break through various "neck sticking" problems and focus on scientific and technological innovation and basic research and development; Second, the construction of the new development pattern needs to supplement the domestic industry chain and supply chain; Third, the outline of the 14th five year plan has determined 102 major projects, which will be implemented in an orderly manner; Fourth, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, China will cross the middle-income trap, and the demand in the consumption field characterized by high-quality, new varieties and service-oriented will rise rapidly; Fifth, the vast central and western regions will further complete industrialization and urbanization. These aspects are pregnant with strong investment demand.

Peng Wensheng: China is moving towards high-quality development. Industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading are investment opportunities worthy of attention. Driven by scientific and technological innovation, China's manufacturing industry will continue the momentum of industrial upgrading, and gradually move from low and medium value-added industries to medium and high value-added industries; Under the policy framework of common prosperity, residents' income will grow more balanced, and the trend of Rural Revitalization and consumption upgrading should be paid attention to.

Shen Jianguang: in recent years, investment in high-tech industries has maintained a good growth momentum. Investment in new infrastructure such as 5g base station construction, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and urban rail transit, new energy vehicle charging pile, big data center, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet will continue to increase, and the transformation of digital economy, informatization and intelligence will be accelerated, Investment in advanced manufacturing industry is expected to continue. For example, in the field of digital economy, investment opportunities in digital infrastructure construction, data element sharing, industrial digital transformation, digital industrialization upgrading and smart city construction will continue to emerge.

The real estate market will maintain a stable and healthy development

Q: how should we look at the risk situation and future development of the real estate market?

Liu Yuanchun: in 2022, China's real estate will show a stable trend under the readjustment of a series of policies, and the real estate market established on the basis of long-term mechanism will maintain stable and healthy development. Housing rigid demand is still strong, improvement demand is strong, the long-term stable and healthy development of real estate has fundamental support.

Peng Wensheng: since the fourth quarter of last year, the financial support for real estate has been continuously increased, the normal financing needs of real estate enterprises have been met, the housing mortgage investment has been significantly increased and accelerated, the decline of housing sales has been stabilized, and the decline rate of house price on a month on month basis has also narrowed. All kinds of signs show that the policy is helping the real estate market to develop healthily. The credit default events of individual problem real estate enterprises will not have systematic influence, and the risks are clearing out orderly.

Shen Jianguang: "no speculation on housing and housing" will still be the main line of China's real estate policy. In the future, the policy regulation will better coordinate the steady growth and prevent risks, and implement policies according to the city, so as to promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of real estate.

Opportunities outweigh challenges in capital market development

Q: with the increase of uncertainty in global financial market operation in 2022, what is the development prospect of China's capital market?

Liu Yuanchun: in 2022, although the global financial market has strong uncertainty, China's capital market still has the basis and conditions for relatively independent, sustained and healthy development. First, China's economy is stable and improving, laying the foundation for the healthy development of the capital market. According to the prediction of some institutions, the growth rate of China's GDP in 2022 will still be 5.2% to 5.6%, 1.3 to 1.5 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of developed countries; Second, the liquidity support in 2022 will be more abundant, and the overall liquidity environment of capital market is expected to be better than that in 2021; Third, the continuous reform has laid a solid institutional foundation for the smooth operation of the capital market; Fourth, China's macroeconomic and financial cycles are not synchronized with those of the United States, and China's macroeconomic and financial markets will remain relatively independent.

Peng Wensheng: we judge that opportunities outweigh risks in China's capital market in 2022. China's steady growth policy is gradually developing and its growth is gradually improving, which is opposite to the cycle of tightening overseas policies and downward growth; The overall valuation of the stock market is not high, and the liquidity environment is relatively abundant; Policies such as encouraging scientific and technological innovation and vigorously developing the capital market will help stimulate vitality and release potential. At the same time, under the reform and opening up of the capital market, the proportion of household financial assets allocation increased, which is conducive to the long-term healthy development of the capital market.

Shen Jianguang: in recent years, with the continuous implementation of the policy of "system building, non intervention and zero tolerance", the market ecology has been constantly improved and the number of institutional investors has been increasing. There are many foreign investment institutions. In the future, China's market conditions and institutional environment will be further improved, China's capital market will be more attractive for investment, and RMB will become a more valuable asset in the world.