March Report On Prosperity Monitoring Of Circulation Branch Of China Textile Federation

The prosperity monitoring results of circulation branch of China Textile Federation show that in March 2022, the prosperity index of national textile and garment professional market managers is 45.75, which is 4.20 percentage points lower than 49.95 from January to February; The business climate index of professional market was 47.84, down 2.04 percentage points from 49.88 in January February. In March, affected by the epidemic situation, textile and garment professional markets in some regions were delayed to open and business was suspended, and the overall prosperity index declined.

　　 1、 Managers boom, merchant boom

According to the data, in March, the business climate index of the national textile and clothing professional market managers and merchants decreased as a whole compared with January February. Affected by the epidemic situation, the business climate index of the professional market declined significantly.

　　 1. The business climate index of managers dropped by 4.20 percentage points

Chart 1 list of managers' index

Data source: circulation branch of China Textile Federation

From the perspective of manager climate index, in the total index, the manager climate index in March was 45.75, down 4.20 from 49.95 in January February; The business environment index was 45.48, down 4.52 percentage points from 50.00 in January February.

Among the sub indexes, the total business index was 44.84, 4.84 percentage points lower than 49.68 in January February; The logistics delivery index was 44.52, 5.48 percentage points lower than 50.00 from January to February; The passenger flow index was 44.19, 5.16 percentage points lower than 49.35 from January to February; The opening rate index was 46.13, 3.87 percentage points lower than 50.00 from January to February; The rent index was 47.10, down 2.58 percentage points from 49.68 in January February; The e-commerce sales index was 47.74, down 3.23 percentage points from 50.97 in January February.

　　 2. The business climate index decreased by 2.04 percentage points

Chart 2 list of merchant index

Data source: circulation branch of China Textile Federation

In terms of the business climate index, the business climate index in March was 47.84, down 2.04 percentage points from 49.88 in January February; The business environment index was 45.96, 6.21 percentage points lower than 52.17 from January to February.

In the sub index, the sales index was 45.14, 4.02 percentage points lower than 49.16 from January to February; The average price index was 45.27, 5.36 percentage points lower than 50.63 from January to February; The profit index was 45.27, down 4.24 percentage points from 49.51 in January February; The comprehensive cost index was 52.53, up 2.53 percentage points from 50.00 in January to February; The inventory index was 52.26, up 2.26 percentage points from 50.00 in January February; The e-commerce sales index was 46.58, down 3.42 percentage points from 50.00 in January February.

　　 2、 Data analysis

　　 1. The total market operation, logistics delivery and passenger flow index declined as a whole

In March, 58.06% of the total amount of selected market operations decreased, 48.38% higher than that of January February; 29%, 54. 84 percentage points higher than that of January February; The decrease proportion of selected market passenger flow was 64.52%, which was 51.62 percentage points higher than that of January February; The total market operation index, logistics delivery volume and passenger flow index decreased as a whole, while the sales of textile and clothing professional market were relatively cold.

　　 2. The total sales volume and profit index of merchants decreased as a whole

In March, the total sales volume of selected merchants decreased by 48.63%, 31.85 percentage points higher than that of January February; The proportion of decrease in the profits of selected merchants was 47.95%, 35.36 percentage points higher than that in January February; The total sales index and profit index of merchants decreased as a whole, and merchants and professional markets entered the off-season.

　　 3、 Forecast index decline

Data shows that for managers, the business climate index of managers in the next period is 46.13, down 4.52 percentage points from 50.65 in January February; The next business environment index was 46.45, down 3.87 percentage points from 50.32 in January to February. In terms of merchants, the next business climate index was 45.89, down 6.14 percentage points from 52.03 in January February; The next business environment index was 46.10, 6.00 percentage points lower than 52.10 from January to February. In terms of prediction index, affected by the epidemic situation, the national textile and garment professional market has insufficient confidence in the next stage of operation.

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　　 1. Monitoring methods

"Textile and clothing professional market prosperity index" consists of "manager index" and "merchant index". Using the sampling method, we selected markets and merchants of different business categories such as clothing, fabric, home textiles and small commodities, and filled in the questionnaires of managers' prosperity index and merchants' prosperity index respectively.

　　 2. Monitoring samples

The sample of managers' prosperity consists of 32 specialized textile and garment markets, including Guangzhou Baima clothing market, Beijing Tianya women's clothing building, Jiangsu Dieshiqiao home textile market, Shanghai xinqipu clothing market, Liaoning Xiliu clothing market, etc. The sample of business prosperity is composed of more than 150 merchants, such as Taotao clothing, Muzi thatched house, Ruili Hanshi, zhedi clothing, etc.

　　 3. Monitoring period

The business cycle is monthly, submitted at the end of each month and released at the beginning of the next month.

　　 4. Index composition

In the "textile and clothing professional market prosperity index", the "manager index" consists of four first-class indexes: the current manager prosperity index, the next management prosperity index, the current business environment index and the next business environment index; The "current manager climate index" consists of six secondary indexes: total business index, logistics delivery index, passenger flow index, opening rate index, rent index and e-commerce sales index.

"Merchant index" is composed of four first-class indexes: the current business climate index, the next business climate index, the current business environment index and the next business environment index; "Business climate index of this period" is composed of six secondary indexes: Sales Index, average selling price index, profit index, comprehensive cost index, inventory index and e-commerce sales index.

　　 5. Exponential analysis

The positive index includes manager's total business index, logistics delivery index, passenger flow index, merchant opening rate index, rent index, e-commerce sales volume proportion index, merchant sales volume index, average selling price index, profit index and e-commerce sales proportion index. If the positive index exceeds 50, it indicates that the business situation is optimistic, and the larger the value, the more optimistic it is; The positive index is lower than 50, indicating that the business situation is not optimistic; The smaller the number, the more pessimistic.

The reverse index includes merchant cost index and inventory index. When the cost index is over 50, it means that the merchant's cost pressure decreases; If the cost index is lower than 50, it indicates that the cost pressure of merchants increases. The smaller the value, the greater the cost pressure. When the inventory index exceeds 50, it indicates that the inventory pressure of merchants decreases, and the larger the value, the smaller the inventory pressure; If the inventory index is lower than 50, it indicates that the merchant's inventory pressure increases, and the smaller the value, the greater the inventory pressure.

(source: circulation branch of China Textile Federation)