Industry Data: Analysis Of Information Data Of Textile And Garment Industry In March

Brand clothing: the epidemic in March affected logistics and demand, dragging down Q1 textile and clothing company. In March 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were - 3.5% year-on-year (month on month growth rate was - 10.2 PCTs), the total retail sales volume of social consumer goods in Q1 was + 3.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 3.4 PCTs Among them, the textile and clothing category was - 12.7% year-on-year (month on month growth rate was - 17.5 PCTs). From the accumulated retail sales from January to March, the textile and clothing company had zero year-on-year growth of -0.89.

From the perspective of different channels, the sales volume of online clothing goods in China from January to March 2022 was + 0.9% year-on-year, and further narrowed by 3pcts Offline, due to the suspension of business district business under the epidemic situation in several first tier and second tier cities, the cumulative retail sales of department stores, exclusive stores and professional stores in 2022q1 were - 3.3% / + 1% / + 6.6% year-on-year (the growth rate was - 15 / - 11 / - 6.2pcts respectively).

Textile manufacturing: the export volume of textile and clothing reached a new high in the same period, and cotton prices at home and abroad remained high. Price situation: as of April 22, 2022, the cotton 328 price index closed at 22525 yuan / ton, with a month on month / year-on-year change of - 189 / + 6943 yuan.

Supply and demand: in April, USDA estimated that China's cotton supply in 2021 / 22 will be 7.882 million tons, and the demand will be 8.508 million tons. The gap between supply and demand will be 626000 tons, which will be reduced by 44000 tons compared with the forecast in March. The warehouse to sales ratio will be - 4pcts to 93.08%.

From the perspective of the global market, in 2021/22, the supply-demand gap shrank by 168000 to 85000 tons month on month, and the inventory sales ratio was -7.2pcts to 49.07%. The increase in supply was mainly from the increase in output (+75000 tons) in Pakistan and Greece. At the same time, the decrease in China's consumption led to a decline in global cotton demand (-109000 tons), and the global cotton import and export volume was basically flat.

From the export data, the cumulative export amount of textile and clothing from January to March 2022 was +11% year-on-year. In terms of categories, the total export amount of clothing / textile products in March was + 7.2% / + 15% year-on-year, and that of single month was + 10.5% / + 22.2%. Among them, the monthly / cumulative growth rate of textile exports in March continued to expand, and the cumulative export amount of clothing and textiles reached a new high.

Vietnam Textile: as of April 23, 2022, there were 41734 / 1422061 new / existing confirmed cases in Vietnam on that day. On the whole, the epidemic situation in Vietnam has tended to be stable, and the new measures for epidemic prevention may reduce the impact of the epidemic on Vietnam's textile industry in the future. In terms of exports, in March, Vietnam's textile exports amounted to US $3.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of +18.5%, a record high in the same period, and the textile production capacity is continuing to recover.

(2) the long-term development of sports brand in China should be improved; 2) For textile and weaving, it is suggested to pay attention to the fact that the production capacity of peers is concentrated in South Vietnam, which has been seriously affected by the epidemic situation in Vietnam, while the company is less affected by the epidemic situation in Vietnam and has strong orders, so Huali group (24x in 2022) is the leading manufacturer of high-quality sports shoes; And because of the technological breakthrough to break the overseas monopoly pattern, and through the differentiated products to cast high barriers and high growth, the civil nylon integrated leader Taihua new material (15x in 2022). As well as Jiansheng group (2022 9x), which was greatly affected by the epidemic situation at home and abroad last year, had full orders this year, rapidly recovered overseas production capacity, and continued to expand production.

N risk tips: the risk of slowing down macroeconomic growth rate; The terminal consumption demand slows down; Change risk of cotton price; The third-party data credibility risk, research report use information data update not timely risk.