Economic Watch: Focus On The Growth Data Of Textile Supply Chain In Southeast Asia And South Asia

Since the second half of 2021, with the increase of vaccination rate of new crown vaccine, the relevant epidemic prevention measures in Southeast Asia and South Asia countries have been gradually relaxed, trade and manufacturing industries have recovered rapidly after the severe impact of the epidemic in 2020, and the economic recovery process of emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and India has accelerated. In April this year, the World Bank (WB) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released the 2022 East Asia and Pacific Economic semi annual report and the 2022 Asia Development Outlook report respectively. According to the report, the average economic growth of East Asia and Pacific countries in 2021 will reach 7.2%, and Vietnam's economic growth has exceeded the level before the epidemic. The strong recovery of domestic demand market and the sustained growth of export trade have become the core support for the sustained recovery of manufacturing industry in Southeast Asia and South Asia, and driven the international trade of textiles and clothing to achieve good growth for several months in a row.

Vietnam's import and export of major textile products rebounded year on year. Since 2022, driven by the strong rebound of manufacturing industry, Vietnam's textile and clothing export value has achieved a substantial growth. According to Vietnam customs data, Vietnam exported yarn, other textiles and clothing to the world in the amount of 13.77 billion US dollars from January to April, up 21.4% year on year. Among them, the export amount of yarn was 1.94 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 14.9%; The total export value of other textiles and clothing was 11.83 billion US dollars, a substantial increase of 22.2% year-on-year. The sustained recovery of overseas terminal demand has accelerated the recovery of Vietnam's textile supply chain, and the demand for textile raw materials and finished products has rebounded significantly. From January to April, Vietnam imported 7.17 billion US dollars of cotton, yarn and fabrics from the world, up 14.4% year on year. Among them, the import amount of cotton, yarn and fabric was US $1.22 billion, US $900 million and US $5.05 billion, respectively, up 22.2%, 3.4% and 14.8% year-on-year.

Figure 1-1: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth rate of Vietnam's textile and garment exports

Source: Vietnam customs

Figure 1-2: Monthly cumulative year-on-year growth of Vietnam's cotton, yarn and fabric imports

Source: Vietnam customs

Bangladesh's textile and clothing import and export continued the high-speed growth level since September 2021, and the growth rate of major categories of products reached more than 20% in 2022. Since 2021, when Vietnam, India and other neighboring countries are still constrained by the choice of epidemic prevention and control policies, the Bangladesh government has relaxed the isolation policy and strengthened financial support for the manufacturing industry to ensure the normal operation of the clothing industry. At the same time, the instability of Myanmar's political situation, the outbreak of the war in Ethiopia, and the adjustment of purchasing layout by international purchasers and other factors led to a large number of European and American garment orders flowing into Bangladesh, which provided positive support for Bangladesh's textile industry chain supply chain to walk out of the epidemic trough and achieve stability and recovery. According to the data of Bangladesh Bureau of statistics, from January to March 2022, the export amount of Bangladesh's textile products and clothing to the world is about 11.79 billion US dollars, a sharp increase of 46.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate is 46.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year. Among them, the export value of textile products was about 460 million US dollars, an increase of 46.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 22.1 percentage points compared with the same period of last year; The export value of clothing was about 11.32 billion US dollars, a sharp increase of 46.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 47.1% compared with the same period of last year. Driven by the rapid recovery of clothing industry, Bangladesh's import demand for yarn, fabric and other supporting products showed a steady upward trend. From January to March, the amount of raw cotton and various textile fabrics imported from the world was about 1.31 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, and the growth rate increased by 19.5 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. Among them, the import value of raw cotton and textile fabrics increased by 26.2% and 27.3% respectively year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 18.9% and 78.6% respectively compared with the same period of last year.

Figure 2-1: Monthly year on year growth of Bangladesh textile and garment export amount

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

2. Monthly growth of raw cotton imports in Bangladesh

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

India's textile industry has gradually stepped out of the impact of the epidemic on production and trade, and the supply chain has shown an accelerated improvement trend. Since 2022, India's economic fundamentals have recovered steadily, the manufacturing industry is booming, and consumer confidence has continued to rise. According to the Statistics Bureau of India and the Central Bank of India, the PMI of Indian manufacturing industry reached 54, 54.9 and 54 respectively from January to March, which continued to be in the expansion range; The current consumer confidence index (CSI) in March continued to rise by 5.3 points to 71.7 compared with January this year, continuing the upward trend since July 2021. Under the environment of stable production and restorative growth of domestic and foreign market demand, the import and export trade of Indian textile industry has rebounded strongly. According to the data of the Ministry of industry and Commerce of India, in March 2022, India exported a total of US $3.82 billion in cotton yarn, fabric, clothing, hemp and carpet, with a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. According to the fiscal year, from April 2021 to March 2022, India's cumulative export value of various cotton yarn, fabrics, clothing, hemp and carpet totaled 39.23 billion US dollars, a significant increase of 41.3% over the same period of last year. Among them, the export value of cotton yarn, fabric, clothing, hemp and carpet increased by 55.7%, 47.5%, 30.5%, 36.7% and 20% respectively. In terms of import, from April 2021 to March 2022, India imported a total of US $2.06 billion in textile yarn, fabric and finished products from the world, with a significant increase of 37.5% year-on-year.

Figure 3: export amount and year-on-year growth of Indian textile and garment products (calculated by fiscal year)

Source: Ministry of industry and commerce, India

(source: Niu Shuangxin, China Textile Industry Economic Research Institute)