Market Dynamics: Cotton Prices Constitute A Strong Support Point For Spinning

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According to the survey conducted by the data service provider of the bulk commodity industry My Iron and Steel Network, as of June 9, the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide had reached 2.5814 million tons, 167900 tons lower than last week (down 6.11%). Among them, commodity cotton in Xinjiang market was 1.7597 million tons, with a decrease of 156900 tons (8.19%) on a weekly basis. At the same time, the market expects that cotton supply will be tight in September.

The China Cotton Price Index (new standard) released by the China Cotton Association shows that the price of 3128B was 17505 yuan/ton on June 15, an increase of 14% month on month. On the same day, the closing price of Zheng Mian's main futures was 16670 yuan/ton, up 7.98% from the beginning of the month. The rise in cotton prices also directly drove cotton yarn prices. The closing price of cotton yarn futures was 23570 yuan/ton, up 5.39% from the beginning of the month.

In the near future, the market has focused on the reduction of cotton production in the new year, and the expectation of rush to harvest is superimposed on the low commercial inventory, and the cotton price has risen significantly. In the new year, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is estimated to be reduced by about 8%, and the cotton output is estimated to be reduced, but the specific extent is still uncertain. If the weather is normal in the later period, there is still a chance to remedy. In addition, in 2022 and 2023, the processing profit of ginning plant is relatively considerable, and the cotton production rate in the new year is likely to rush to harvest.

The news of new cotton production reduction and low inventory in the domestic market continued to ferment, supporting the cotton price. However, on the other hand, the downward transmission of cotton price is blocked, and the textile mills' purchasing of yarn has weakened, which may exert some pressure on cotton price in the short term. Pay attention to the downstream orders and whether the growth of new cotton has recovered under the rising temperature.

As an important agricultural product, cotton has obvious seasonal regularity. Since April, the temperature in most cotton regions in Xinjiang is low, which affects the development of cotton seedlings; In addition, the strong cold air invasion in the first ten days of May made cotton production worse, and the severe weather in the last ten days of May caused cotton disasters.

The tight expectation on the supply side in the short term has formed a strong support for cotton prices, maintaining a strong trend; Once the price rises further, it may lead to stronger negative feedback from the downstream demand side, bringing stronger resistance above the price. It is expected that cotton prices will remain high and volatile.

However, at present, there are some differences between many empty parties in the market. The tight cotton inventory in Xinjiang and the expected reduction of cotton production, rush to harvest and delayed listing of cotton in the new year are the reasons for this round of cotton price rise. However, the current downstream market has insufficient capacity to undertake, and the accumulation of cotton yarn finished product inventory and the slight decline of textile enterprises' start-up also limit the cotton price to continue to rise, The recent cotton prices continue to fluctuate as a whole.

From the downstream of the cotton industry chain, as the price of raw materials moves up and the cost rises again, the profit space of textile mills is compressed, and new orders may be affected. How should enterprises cope with the double "pinch" of price and inventory?

Short term cotton prices are rising rapidly, textile enterprises are not enthusiastic about purchasing raw materials, downstream orders are weak to follow up, and finished goods inventory is gradually increasing, which is difficult to improve in the short term. It is suggested that textile enterprises should build a business model of fast feeding, fast production and fast sales, lock in processing profits, reduce product backlog as much as possible, and ship products according to the market.