Industrial Cluster: Data Analysis Of Cotton Planting Yield Information Around The World

According to the prediction of the U.S. Department of Agriculture in January, the global cotton output in 2024/25 will be 26.01 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.41 million tons and a month on month increase of 450000 tons; The global cotton consumption was 25.23 million tons, an increase of 340000 tons year on year and an increase of 20000 tons month on month; Production exceeded demand by 770000 tons, an increase of 430000 tons month on month; The global cotton inventory consumption ratio was 67.23%, up 2.36 percentage points over the previous year. 　　

Global cotton supply situation

Cotton picking and finishing in the Northern Hemisphere. After cotton picking in the United States, cotton farmers prepare for spring sowing. Cotton harvesting in northern India has ended, while cotton harvesting in central India is in progress. According to the data of Indian Cotton Association, as of January 20, the cumulative market volume of Indian cotton was 2.603 million tons, an increase of 24% year on year; As of January 8, Indian Cotton Company has purchased more than 6.3 million bales of cotton at the lowest support price, about 1.07 million tons. The cotton yield in the southern hemisphere is expected to increase. The planting area of Australian cotton further increased. According to the January Global Agricultural Output Report of the US Department of Agriculture, the Australian cotton harvest area in 2024/25 is expected to be 600000 hectares, up 9% month on month and 19% year on year, 41% higher than the average in the past five years. Brazil has a continuous high yield of cotton, and the increase of rainfall has led to the delay of cotton planting. According to the data of Brazil National Commodity Supply Company, Brazil's new cotton output in 2024/25 is 3.7 million tons; By January 19, 2025, 39.1% of Brazilian cotton had been planted, an increase of 5.6 percentage points month on month and a decrease of 17.5 percentage points year on year. The weather forecast agency said that there may be more rainfall before the soybean harvest in Brazil, which will lead to the delay of cotton planting. At the same time, if the La Nina climate strengthens in February, the soybean harvest may be further delayed, or even affect the cotton planting.

The global cotton export supply is mainly American cotton and Brazilian cotton. In 2024/25, the weekly contracted export volume of American cotton will be around 40000 tons, and in the second week of January, the contracted export volume will rise to 72000 tons, but it does not support the ICE cotton price; As of January 9, the cumulative shipment volume of American cotton was 740000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 143000 tons, accounting for 30.9% of the export volume predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The export shipment of Australian cotton ended, and the focus turned to the planting of new cotton. From August to December, Brazilian cotton exports totaled 1.215 million tons, an increase of 94000 tons year-on-year, accounting for 43.6% of the predicted export volume.

Global textile consumption situation

The final clothing consumption is resilient, and the replenishment of stock will drive the market demand, and the textile export volume in Southeast Asia will increase. According to the data of the US Department of Commerce, the inventory of US clothing and clothing fabric wholesalers in November was 2.86 billion US dollars, down 7.97% year on year, up 0.82% month on month, and increasing for two consecutive months month on month, reflecting that US wholesalers continued to replenish inventory; In December, the retail sales of American clothing and accessories reached 2.67 billion dollars, up 1.52% month on month and 2.4% year on year, maintaining a positive year-on-year growth trend for nine consecutive months. From the perspective of consumption, the resilience of American clothing retail will support the consumption of the global cotton textile market; From the perspective of replenishment cycle, additional tariffs will stimulate import demand in advance. This round of replenishment by American businesses may come to an end, and the pulling effect on demand is expected to weaken. However, before the implementation of the US tariff increase policy, wholesalers and retailers are still likely to continue replenishing their stocks. Vietnam Textile and Garment Group said that the current orders of textile and garment enterprises have been scheduled to the end of the first quarter of 2025. In December 2024, Vietnam's textile export value increased by 20.5% year on year, and the annual cumulative growth was 19.0% year on year.