Global Perspective: Brazil'S Cotton Output Is Expected To Reach A Record High

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Driven by the exchange rate, Brazil's cotton exports in January reached 415600 tons, an increase of 66% over the same period last year.

In addition to the record harvest and demand from Asian countries such as China, Vietnam and Bangladesh, the favorable exchange rate against the US dollar in December also boosted Brazil's cotton exports in January.

There are many reasons for Brazil's strong exports... but the most important factor to explain this trend is the exchange rate. In December, the real depreciated significantly, and the manufacturers saw the advantage of improving exports. In addition, the port situation was relatively calm, and the export volume increased

According to the export data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), the previous record high was 370500 tons in December 2020. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the real has dropped from about 6.30 in mid December to about 5.80 at present.

Secex said that cotton exports in the first week of February remained strong compared with the same period last year. Secex data shows that Brazil exported 77880.24 tons of cotton in the first week of February, with an average daily export volume of 15576.05 tons, 15% more than the average daily export volume of 13589.21 tons in the whole month of February last year, but lower than the average daily export volume of 18892.18 tons in January.

The new crop in 2024/25 is being sown, and the cotton planting area is expected to expand, and the yield is expected to reach a record high.

StoneX's latest estimate shows that the planting area is 2.1 million hectares, which may bring the domestic production to 3.79 million tons.

The consulting company said: "If the estimate is realized, it will be a new record of cotton production in Brazil."

The February supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday shows that Brazil's cotton output in 2024/25 is expected to be 17 million bales and its export volume is expected to be 12.8 million bales. The US cotton export volume in 2024/25 is estimated to remain unchanged at 11 million bales.