Market Observation: China'S Anti American Cotton Rebounded After Falling; Market Sentiment Turned Stable

The US cotton bottomed out and rebounded, basically recovering the huge decline caused by China's counter measures the day before yesterday, while Zheng Mian remained at a low level, shaking 24/25 The annual import contract signing of China has been at the lowest level in nearly a decade, which has weakened the impact of tariff disputes. Market sentiment has stabilized from the fear of trade war, and the impact on Zheng Mian may be limited. The recent increase in domestic cottonseed prices has moved down the lint cost line, and the hedging pressure has restricted cotton prices; The expansion of the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has also brought restraint to domestic cotton prices. 　

The USDA report predicts that due to the low absolute price and the relatively low price of competitive crops, the cotton planting area in the United States is expected to decrease by nearly 11%, and global output is expected to decline by more than 3%. The domestic market has expectations for gold, silver and four, but has not yet been verified by the order quantity. The downstream textile enterprises have accumulated yarn inventory. It is expected that in the near future, the market will be mainly driven by macro factors, showing a weak pattern. The speculation about new crop yield, weather, moisture content and other hot spots may be delayed until the end of the month USDA planting forecast report.

China is an important cotton importer in the world. Although the number of imports has declined in recent years, China is still highly dependent on the international market. This high dependence on the international market makes China's cotton industry vulnerable to fluctuations in international market prices and changes in trade policies. In order to reduce international market risks, China needs to implement a diversified import strategy, actively expand new import source countries, and avoid excessive dependence on a few countries.