There Are Signs Of Weakening In The Fermented Cotton Textile Market After The US Tariff Policy

In the traditional peak season of textile, domestic orders were issued in spring and summer, but mainly small orders and loose orders. The export showed signs of weakening due to the US tariff policy. The startup of enterprises remained relatively high, the output and cotton consumption increased month on month, and the inventory of yarn and grey cloth declined.

This month, the output of pure cotton yarn increased by 31.2% month on month and 2.9% year on year. The proportion of pure cotton yarn in the survey sample was 50.7%, up 0.5 percentage point month on month; Blended yarn and chemical fiber yarn accounted for 49.3%, with a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the previous month. The output of pure cotton increased by 35.4% month on month and 3.5% year on year, of which, the proportion of pure cotton increased by 0.4% month on month. The yarn sales rate was 76%, up 3 percentage points month on month. At present, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises is 19.2 days, 3.2 days less than that of last month. Gray cloth inventory was 28.7 days, 0.7 days less than that of the previous month.

Generally speaking, there is a saying that cotton is golden, three silvers and four silvers. Generally, March and April are the peak seasons for downstream demand. From the data, the output of cotton yarn and cotton cloth in March has increased significantly, both month on month and year on year, and the sales rate of yarn has also increased month on month. The overall production and marketing performance is good. In addition, the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth in textile enterprises also declined month on month, which shows that Jin San's statement is still tenable. April is still the peak season, and the production and sales data is expected to remain at a certain level, but whether it can remain high or doubtful.

The production and marketing data in March may have some factors of "preemption". According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 14, in RMB: In March, the export of textile and clothing was 167.85 billion yuan, up 12.4% year on year and 78.3% month on month, including 86.44 billion yuan of textile exports, up 16%, 91.1% month on month, 81.41 billion yuan of clothing exports, up 8.9% and 66.4% month on month. In March 2025, China's textile and clothing exports will grow rapidly year on year, driven by the combined efforts of foreign trade enterprises to avoid higher tariffs, focus on "competing for exports", and low base in the same period last year. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether downstream consumption can be maintained in the later period due to the impact of trade tariffs.

At present, the peak season is still coming, and the domestic production and sales data are good, but whether it can be maintained or doubtful. Because of the impact of Sino US trade tariffs, many enterprises in March ran away, and this part of consumption was against the background of high tariffs, which was difficult to sustain in the later period. So far, the production and sales data in March is not durable, and the data in April may decline.