Three Industries That Should Not Be Touched By The Crisis

IT industry: the risk index of layoffs, the development of the company, the IT industry in 2009 and even the next few years may not be very good.

Faced with the financial crisis, PC giants have announced layoffs to reduce costs.

In February, TechCrunch, the famous technology blogger, said that the total number of layoffs of global technology companies has surged to 300 thousand.

TechCrunch said that since the total number of layoffs reached 200 thousand in late 1, global technology companies have announced another 100 thousand layoffs.

The financial crisis has led to bad overall business.

Zhao Lichun, general manager of the Zhongguancun Beijing wing Kai Weiye Technology Co., Ltd., the largest distributing center and wind vane of China's consumer electronics products, said that the layoffs in the IT manufacturing industry had already affected computer sales. At present, the turnover of the company has dropped by about 30% over the previous years.

The first thing is to get goods difficult.

Zhao Lichun said that Beijing Rong Kai Weiye Technology Co., Ltd. belongs to the brand computer agent. The financial crisis first affected the manufacturing industry, because the manufacturers did not ship the goods, so the company had to get goods at higher and higher prices.

For example, the price difference between a computer with the same price and performance ratio will be very large before and after the year. If the goods were picked up 3800 yuan a year ago, the price of the goods could rise to 4500 yuan after a year because of shortage.

The problem is that the official website that consumers see, or the same cost-effective computer in Zhongguancun online, the Internet price may still be maintained at 3800 yuan, resulting in many computers that we can not sell and lose money to sell.

The second is the increasingly competitive environment.

Zhao Lichun revealed that the financial crisis has led to increasingly fierce competition among agents, and Zhongguancun's sales model is becoming more and more malformed.

At a cost of two to three square meters, the monthly rent is between 30 thousand and 40 thousand, or even between 45 thousand and 55 thousand.

If a computer earns 300 yuan and sells 100 units a month, it will make 30 thousand yuan, and even the rent will not be paid.

In order to survive, Zhao Lichun said that the agents broke their prices and used various covert means to guarantee prices.

In addition, the financial crisis has reduced consumer spending and consumers are becoming more rational, and related consumption may be pushed back.

Hailong building is open at 9 o'clock in the morning. In 2005 and 2006, at eight o'clock in the morning, there was a long queue outside the store waiting for the door to open.

It's also open at 9 o'clock, and not many people have turned around at 10 o'clock.

Zhao Lichun's frustration is that the market environment of IT is not good enough.

After peaking in the past few years, the IT market is now on the downhill trend.

The only support point is that the era of notebook replacing desktops has arrived, but this age of popularization will soon be over.

The prospect of the company is expected to continue.

CEO John Cha Linzhe of Challenger, a outsourcing consultancy company, believes that the outlook for technology companies in 2009 is not optimistic: because there is no indication that the economy has reached the trough of this economic cycle, the number of layoffs may be higher this year.

The Challenger report predicts that American Technology Corp will also have a significant number of layoffs in the coming months.

In addition to layoffs, HP, Seagate and AMD have already taken salary reduction measures.

The future of IT enterprises will be even more sad, and winter will be more obvious next year.

In 2009, the budget cuts will become more obvious. The financial crisis in the United States will have a more prominent impact on Chinese enterprises.

Zhao Yazhou, vice president of Beijing limited, said before.

I feel that the IT industry may reach the worst level in June this year. From September, there should be a corresponding policy or mechanism to save the situation. Maybe the impact of the financial crisis on the IT industry will be reduced correspondingly.

Zhao Lichun said.

Textile and apparel industry: the risk index of the weak area with weak external demand: the current situation of the development of China's economy and trade. As an export oriented industry, the textile and garment industry has been in the predicament of the national economy since the RMB appreciation and factor price increase began in 2007.

The growth rate of China's textile and garment exports slowed down in 2008.

Since February 1, 2009, China has raised the export tax rebate rate to 15%, but customs data show that in the first quarter of 2009, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 34 billion 67 million US dollars, down 6.52% from the same period last year.

In the early March, at the China Fair held in Shanghai, the textile and garment category only closed 1 billion 245 million dollars, down 32.47% from the previous one. This also reflects the pressure on the textile industry's exports from one aspect.

Although statistics show that the added value of textile industry in the first quarter of 2009 increased by 6.1% over the first quarter of last year, the increase was 5.5% higher than that of the lowest level in December last year.

However, some experts in the industry believe that when the stock market in Europe and the United States is low to no longer low, it is necessary to reset the stock. The resetting of orders brought by inventory reset may help China's exports improve in March or even in the next few months, but it is not a rebound of final demand.

As for the phenomenon of export warming in March, it is a normal practice in the past years, and the textile industry has not yet passed the difficult period.

In addition, the media said that after the abolition of the quota of the EU and the United States of China's textile and clothing exports, the major export target countries were alert to the export of Chinese textile and clothing.

It has been reported that the number of Chinese spinning and clothing products increased by nearly 2 in the recall notice issued by the US Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) in 1~3. The number of notifications to Chinese clothing, fabrics and other products announced by the European non food quick alert system (RAPEX) increased by 633% over the same period last year.

It is even more worrying that the international financial protectionism is becoming more and more intense.

It is learnt that the US economic stimulus package puts textiles and clothing into the purchase of American goods; the European Union puts forward new and higher requirements for the three aspects of textile fiber names, textile label contents and other markings; Indonesia compelled national civil servants to buy domestic products; Ecuador imposed a 10~12 yuan tax on imported textiles per kilogram.

In the past, the European market could achieve about one hundred thousand pieces, so far only about 2/10. In previous years, the market was at least 6/10.

Sun Mingchi, general manager of Shaanxi Eide Weiss Cashmere Products Co., which has been involved in the foreign trade industry for more than 20 years, said in an interview that in the field of foreign trade, the textile industry had too little profit, and there was no room for price reduction.

After deciding that the international market is not good, Sun Ming Chi's company started to expand the domestic demand market this year.

Now there's no other way out, just push it out, for example, sell yourself on the Internet.

The forecast for the future of the company is: "China's textile enterprises are facing great difficulties since last year, due to the rising labor costs, the appreciation of the renminbi and the weakening of external consumption demand," said the head of the foreign trade division of China's Ministry of Commerce, April 23rd.

From the current economic development situation, the negative impact of these factors will continue. It is expected that the overall growth rate of China's textile exports will continue to slow down this year.

Fan Min, editor in chief of the textile business week of the Ministry of Commerce, predicts that in 2009, the European and American orders for Chinese textile and clothing may drop by more than 20%.

Ping An Securities issued an investment report before saying that it maintained the annual growth rate of -10% in the textile and garment industry.

Wang Qian, editor in chief of the first textile net, believes that the biggest uncertainty of China's textile exports lies in the external environment, and the import and export should be reversed, provided that the economy will recover.

Although tax cuts and other stimulus measures have been introduced in developed economies such as the US and Europe, the recovery of global demand is far from attainable.

Sun Mingchi's point of view is that, with his years of experience in foreign trade, he believes that things will be better in the future.

But from the current international market, this time may be one or two years, it is hard to say.

In 2009, the export furniture industry had to try to expand the domestic demand market.

In view of the fierce competition in the one or two tier market and relative saturation, many people in the industry have turned their attention to the three or four level market.

People in the industry believe that the gap between the rural and urban areas will be smaller and smaller. Farmers will also have a change in the consumption concept of living furnished furniture. But the industrialized furniture market is mainly concentrated in large and medium-sized cities, and the sales terminals have yet to reach the vast rural market.

Public information shows that local governments such as Tibet and Guangdong have proposed their own furniture to the countryside.

With the call of the state to expand domestic demand and open up the vast rural market, more and more furniture manufacturers have begun to enter the rural market.

Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2009, retail sales of urban consumer goods amounted to 19834 billion yuan, an increase of 14.1%, and the retail sales of consumer goods under county and county level reached 956 billion 400 million yuan, an increase of 17%.

Furniture sales increased by 24.1% year-on-year in wholesale and retail businesses above designated size.

However, based on the fall of furniture industry data in March, industry experts said that the domestic furniture consumer market needs to be further observed.

The financial crisis has had a great impact.

Wang Jianye, a furniture store owner who works in the rural market in Shenzhou, Hebei, said it was good at the end of last year. In the first spring of this year, it was found that the situation was particularly serious. He predicted that sales in 2009 would be 1/3 less than that in 2008.

Wang Jianye's factory has been forced to close down, and no one in the shop has been patronized. Occasionally, he comes to see himself. Only when he marries does he buy furniture.

The problem is that the number of clients after marriage is limited.

In order to expand sales, Wang Jianye has done all kinds of unique skills.

In a furniture exhibition at the beginning of this year, Wang Jianye's furniture price cut was around 400 yuan, almost zero profit, but it was not set yet.

In market research, Wang Jianye is trying to develop new markets, and is busy studying whether furniture has bright spots, but there are no achievements.

According to Wang Jianye, the small and medium-sized furniture enterprises in Shenzhou are closed at present.

If the situation does not improve in two or three months, there should be a group of small and medium-sized furniture manufacturers facing closure.

Wang Jianye said that in Hebei, farmers did not earn money in 2008, and the expected earnings in 2009 declined, and farmers' income decreased.

Wang Jianye divides Hebei farmers into three parts.

In the first half of 2008, some of the agricultural materials such as fertilizers, pesticides, seeds and other agricultural materials went up like a roller coaster.

The other part is pig raising households. In the 2008 year, pigs were cheap to hurt farmers.

The third part is a large number of migrant workers.

In 2009, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the "green paper on rural economy" (hereinafter referred to as the green paper) released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 15. It also proved Wang Jianye's judgement.

According to the green paper, according to a sample survey of 68 thousand rural households in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), the per capita net income of farmers in 2008 was 4761 yuan, an increase of 621 yuan compared to 2007, an increase of 15%, and the actual growth rate was 8% after the deduction of price factors, and the rate of increase was 1.5 percentage points lower than that in 2007.

The forecast of the future is: "the biggest potential of expanding consumption demand in rural areas is in China, but the consumption level of rural residents is still relatively low.

In 2009, the per capita net income of farmers will continue to increase, but the growth rate will be lower than that of 2008, and the actual growth rate may be reduced to 6%.

In addition to the pressure on the price of agricultural products and the reduction of non-agricultural employment opportunities, the green book expects that the per capita wage income growth of farmers in 2009 may be only 5%, and the growth rate will drop 10 percentage points from 2008, possibly the lowest growth rate since 1984.

According to the understanding, it is obvious that the furniture manufacturers that have achieved great success in the rural market are still few.

Under the impact of the financial crisis, many factors, such as low income and lack of confidence, have led to the fact that farmers who are not rich enough to re cover their pocketbooks.

Even if the price factor is eliminated, there are still many obstacles for furniture to go to the countryside.

A furniture industry member who asked not to be named before told an interview with our reporter that on the one hand, furniture itself contained certain culture, and the aesthetic standards of urban and rural areas were different.

On the other hand, brand recognition is not obvious in furniture industry.

These two aspects have led to the furniture going to the countryside can not be compared with the vigorous home appliances to the countryside.

The turning point is: no one can wait until the financial crisis is over.

Everyone is watching now.

Wang Jianye said.

Xu Qiyun, editor in chief: