Savings "Cage Tiger" Can Not Go Back To "Cage"?

"Cash is king now!"

It's not the institutional investors in the stock market, but the small boss in Zhejiang.

Some of them are engaged in the production of luggage and leather goods, some are engaged in clothing, lighter production, or are engaged in pawn guarantee.

Zhejiang businessmen have always been the most sensitive to investment business, but in such a place where they are most unwilling to let their money idle, the savings rate has now risen sharply.

Household savings grew for 7 consecutive months

According to statistics of Wenzhou branch of the central bank, in the first quarter of this year, Wenzhou's RMB deposits rose steadily, and household savings became the main force of deposit increase again.

At the end of 3, the balance of savings deposits in Wenzhou was 188 billion 472 million yuan, an increase of 24 billion 670 million yuan over the beginning of the year, accounting for 73.8% of the total increment of deposits. In 2007, the increase in household savings accounted for only 29% of the total disadvantaged situation.

The analysis of Wenzhou branch of the central bank is representative.

They believe that the reason why household savings have become the main force of saving deposits again is the increase in personal settlement.

At present, the willingness of foreign currency holders to settle foreign exchange is strong. In the first quarter, Wenzhou's personal foreign exchange earnings amounted to 1 billion 548 million US dollars, up by 58.55% over the same period last year.

Personal settlement of $1 billion 980 million, an increase of 4.13% over the same period, with the housing market and the stock market downturn, the willingness of residents to invest significantly reduced.

Time deposits in savings deposits increased by 16 billion 870 million yuan in March, accounting for 68.4% of savings deposits, an increase of 30.1% over the same period last year.

In addition, the stock market shocks discouraged investors, and savings became the first choice for residents. In the first quarter of the year, the depositors' questionnaires showed that "the most cost-effective way to spend at current prices and interest rates" was 27.75% of the most cost-effective residents who chose to buy stocks and funds, down 5.75 percentage points from the previous quarter.

It is believed that the proportion of the most cost-effective residents choosing "more savings" is 36%, up 4.75 percentage points from the previous quarter, the highest level in two years, and it is the first choice to surpass stocks and funds again.

In addition, due to the influence of the Spring Festival, a large amount of money was remitted from the field, and with all kinds of year-end bonus payments, savings deposits increased rapidly.

Selling stocks and selling houses

The high level of bank savings in China has attracted wide attention.

However, since the second half of 2006, the amount of savings has slowed down. On the one hand, the real interest rate is negative. On the one hand, the return on the financial capital market is higher.

Residents save trillions of savings from "tiger", leaving the banking system to enter the equity and money market, the property market and so on, which has become an important factor to increase excess liquidity.

From historical data, the growth rate of household savings deposits in October of 2006 dropped sharply, and the balance of RMB savings deposits was 15 trillion and 800 billion yuan, the lowest point since April 2005.

Savings deposits decreased by 7 billion 600 million yuan in the month, the first time since June 2001, the monthly savings deposits have declined.

Among them, demand savings deposits decreased by 2 billion 160 million yuan over the same period last year, while regular savings deposits increased by less than 60 billion 790 million yuan over the same period last year.

In 2007, household savings continued to decline.

Financial disintermediation has become a hot topic in the industry.

But this phenomenon has weakened in 2008.

Several small bosses in Hangzhou say they have sold stocks since last year and now want to sell more of their homes.

They are not operating difficulties, but think that the price of stock market and property market is at its peak.

"This year's economic difficulties, we also feel very deep, Zhejiang's economy has slowed down, we can not think the country's economy will be good.

What support does the stock market rely on?

The boss of the luggage factory is not optimistic about the stock market. He has already realized the stock in his hands.

"Housing prices in Hangzhou can't last that high."

Although there are several houses in hand, they have made a lot of money because they bought early.

Consumption under the background of high inflation

It is noteworthy that the money of these residents did not return to the bank completely.

Wang Jun, the owner of leather garments, has always been frugal, but he has just replaced Santana, which has been running for many years, for the latest Mercedes Benz.

In Wenzhou, Audi Q7 and Mercedes Benz can be seen everywhere.

At the same time, Private Equity Investment Firm is popular in Wenzhou.

Whether VC or PE is very popular, a lot of funds are eagerly looking for new investment projects. It is said that a pig farm in Deqing has been seen by several investors for several rounds.

The central bank's Wenzhou central sub branch report pointed out that social consumption maintained a relatively fast growth in the first quarter.

The total retail sales of consumer goods in the city were 24 billion 975 million yuan, up 17.9% from the same period.

From the commercial perspective, the retail sales in the retail industry increased considerably, and the retail sales reached 19 billion 960 million yuan, up 19.1% over the same period last year. Some large department stores and comprehensive supermarkets increased by more than 30% over the same period last year.

The most noteworthy thing is that the catering industry is unusually hot.

In the first quarter, Wenzhou restaurant retail sales reached 31.77%, an increase of 17% over the same period, with an average monthly retail sales exceeding 1 billion yuan.

From the national data, the retail sales of nominal consumer goods grew by 21.6% in May, down from 22% in April, and in May, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding price factors increased by 12.9% over the same period last year, unchanged from April.

Considering the decline in inflation in the month, Goldman Sachs believes that the drop in nominal retail sales in May is expected.

At the same time, the retail sales of real consumer goods, which deducted price factors, increased steadily.

In the case of higher real wage growth, it is expected that the actual retail sales will continue to grow strongly in the near future.

Song Guoqing, Professor of China Economic Research Center of Peking University, said that according to his specific research on the first quarter of the macroeconomic data, China's demand structure is undergoing tremendous changes.

Domestic demand showed a strong growth momentum in the first quarter.

According to Song Guoqing, the trade surplus of goods in the first quarter of this year dropped by 17.8% compared with RMB.

While the trade surplus is declining, aggregate demand is growing rapidly.

According to Song Guoqing's research, the aggregate demand growth in the first quarter was the highest since 1996.

"The year-on-year growth rate of nominal GDP has reached the highest level since 1996 when the surplus in trade in goods has dropped substantially. The growth rate of domestic demand can be predicted to increase substantially over the past year."