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Euro Devaluation And Trade Challenges

2009/1/7 11:27:00 23

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The financial crisis has brought the biggest challenge to the euro in the past 10 years, and the depreciation of the euro against the yuan has cast a shadow over the prospects of Sino EU trade.

In the first half of 2008, the euro rose sharply against the yuan, and the euro's central parity reached 11.1714 in March 17th. However, the "good prospect" was not long. With the full outbreak of the subprime crisis, the dollar began to strengthen in the international market in August, the euro weakened, and the euro's exchange rate against the renminbi began to fall sharply since then. In September, the euro's exchange rate against the renminbi fell below the 10 integer mark, and in October, the central parity of the euro was further reduced from 9 to 8.

If the euro is the highest and lowest in the middle price of the euro in 2008, the appreciation of the RMB against the euro from the first half of the year will be as high as 31.60%.

The yuan appreciated by 7.4% against the dollar in 2008.

It can be said that the focus of RMB appreciation has shifted from the US dollar to the appreciation of the European currency in the second half of last year.

In the context of the financial crisis, Europe is facing an economic downturn. The appreciation of the renminbi against the euro will bring more challenges to China EU trade.

Some traders have shown that the trend of RMB against the euro in 2008 has been very passive, and they believe that the situation in 2009 may continue to deteriorate.

It is understood that trade companies imported raw materials from Europe in the first half of this year, when the renminbi depreciated against the euro, then exported to Europe in the second half of the year, and then suffered RMB appreciation against the euro. Coupled with the weakness of the overall external demand, many of the orders were defaulted. For them, 2008 was probably a bad year of ten.

Some enterprises say that if the exchange rate environment does not change well, 2009 may be more "battered".

The exchange rate between the euro and the RMB is crossed by the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar and the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB. But so far, most of the views are that the euro is unlikely to improve in 2009, and the euro is still empty in 2009.

"The trend of the euro depends largely on the trend of the euro against the US dollar. If the US dollar continues to rise against the euro, then the renminbi will continue to appreciate against the euro.

In my view, the US dollar may be on the upswing against the euro in 2009, and the renminbi may also appreciate in the concussion against the euro.

Liu Dongliang, a foreign exchange analyst at China Merchants Bank, said.

He also stressed that the possibility of "rising" could not be seen for the time being.

However, when asked about the Yangtze River Delta region's main foreign trade companies in Eurasia, the reporters found that the low price commodities are very popular now, especially those exported to foreign supermarkets.

"There are no orders in France. Now there are many lists in Turkey, which are cheaper and not much."

A foreign trade practitioner said.

It seems that the market is indeed more sensitive to the price of commodities. Perhaps depreciation of the exchange rate is indeed a good way to save exports.

What is worth mentioning is that the middle price of the pound sterling against the European currency was also broken for 102008 years in late 2008 12.

In December 31, 2008, the foreign exchange center announced the euro's central parity of RMB 9.6590 yuan. Liu Dongliang said that the euro would continue to operate in 8 direction in 2009, and did not rule out the possibility of breaking 8.