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Textile Industry Exports More Pressure For More Than 09 Years

2009/1/17 9:25:00 26

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In the process of economic downturn, the cyclical industry is the most obvious.

Although some of the stocks of nonferrous metals, automobiles and machinery and equipment have performed well recently, in the view of analysts, these cyclical industries still face multiple difficulties in 2009.

The most anticipated thing for listed companies is to get rid of the shadow at the early stage of policy support.

　　汽車行業：車企冀望政策

Recently, a series of plans to revitalize the auto industry and iron and steel industry have been published. The contents are mainly focused on the reduction and exemption of purchase tax, the development of automobile consumption, the support of merger and reorganization of large automobile enterprise groups, the support of technological innovation, technological pformation and the development of new energy vehicles and spare parts, and the support of independent brands and the improvement of automobile consumption credit.

"The new auto industry revitalization plan is a great help for us," said Mr. Wang of Changfeng Motor (600991, 600991.SH). "In 2009, we developed and built a complete vehicle with independent intellectual property rights. In the future, we plan to have one or two new cars on the market.

This new plan puts forward three years' 10 billion yuan policy capital support, hoping that our enterprises can get some support from it.

The background of the new plan is a sustained decline in the level of auto sales.

Statistics show that in 2008, China's automobile production and marketing (including exports) 9 million 345 thousand and 100 and 9 million 380 thousand and 500, an increase of 5.21% and 6.70% compared to the previous year, respectively, down 16.81 percentage points and 15.14 percentage points over the previous year.

Hengtai Securities researcher Wu Wenzhao believes that as of now, passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle sales growth has been negative for several consecutive months.

At the enterprise level, the performance index of the major listed companies has been significantly worse, the income growth has slowed down, and the profitability has also declined.

"At present, some automobile related enterprises are also cautious about this year. Many automobile companies have not worked out a detailed plan for car sales in 2009, because the trend of the future is not clear."

A securities company automobile industry researcher said.

"For the growth of car sales in 2009, our company is also meeting to study the sales plan for 2009, which is expected to grow more than in 2008. The listing of new models is expected to effectively boost sales of the company."

"We have reached the Euro III emission standards this year, so this reduction will help boost production," Mr. Wang said.

Third, the massive investment of 4 trillion yuan issued by the government will also drive the sales growth of our entire automobile industry chain.

Machinery and equipment: property related construction machinery involvement

For the industry development of the construction machinery industry in 2009, Zhu Yanhui, a researcher at ajian securities, said: "the growth rate of construction machinery this year will probably slow down, and real estate related industries, such as concrete machinery and mixer, may be affected more."

Zhu Yanhui also believes that in contrast, other industries which are not affected by real estate are likely to perform relatively well, such as earthmoving machinery, bulldozers and excavators.

Niu Jigang, a researcher at debbond securities, believes that, under normal circumstances, the machinery industry will have an advanced reaction period of about half a year, that is, the growth rate of fixed asset investment will fall ahead of the profit of the machinery industry.

It is estimated that the growth rate of fixed assets investment in 2009 will be around 19%, much lower than that of 26% in 2008, which will greatly affect the machinery industry.

Debbond Securities Research Report shows that the machinery industry is a strong cyclical industry. When the economic growth slows down, the sales and profits of the whole industry will have a larger drop. It is expected that the downlink cycle of the machinery industry will be bottomed out when the economic downturn is bottoming out in 2009.

In the field of electrical equipment, a woman from Dongyuan electrical appliances (002074.SZ) securities affairs department told reporters on the phone: "in the past two years, our company has done a good job in the early development of the provincial market and the provincial market. The infrastructure construction has been completed in the three quarter of 2008, and the capacity is expected to be released in 2009."

The lady also said that in the face of funds, the early fund-raising has been fully utilized, so the next step of fund-raising is in progress, "but the completion time depends on the management's opinion."

"The industry attributes of electrical equipment are also investment driven."

Zhu Yanhui said, "in November last year, the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid responded to the call for expanding domestic demand, increased investment and led to a big increase in the electrical equipment industry.

Therefore, we believe that the growth of the electrical equipment industry this year may be relatively clear. "

　　有色金屬：上半年最艱難

Debbond securities released Research Report: due to the United States subprime mortgage crisis caused by the international economic turmoil, the non-ferrous metal industry boom in the industry is in a rapid decline, the industry boom needs to pick up domestic and foreign economic recovery, and there is no turning point.

Analyst Li Xiaogong believes that due to the sharp decline in demand and price, the non-ferrous metal industry has seen a huge loss in the fourth quarter of 2008. It is expected that the industrial losses will expand in the first quarter of 2009.

"In the most optimistic situation, the price of major metals will stabilize or recover gradually in the first half of 2009, and the nonferrous metals industry will get through the most difficult period of the crisis in the first half of 2009, but the industry profits will recover at least in the second half of 2009," he said.

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