Appreciation Of RMB Pains Chinese Export Shoe Enterprises

·Foreign trade export is one of the three driving forces of China's economic development. This year, China's export situation has undergone tremendous changes. ?
·For most Chinese enterprises with meager profits, the appreciation of the RMB is like "breaking the last straw on the camel's back". ?
·China should maintain the "independent, controllable and gradual principle" of RMB exchange rate, and give enterprises a certain time and space to adjust export strategy and product structure and transform export growth mode. ?
Pessimism pervades Chinese export enterprises. The latest data shows that since 2008, China's export surplus has declined for the third consecutive month. The combination of complex factors at home and abroad has cast a huge shadow on China's foreign trade industry in 2008. ?
Internal and external factors challenge China's foreign trade
At the 103rd China Canton Fair, which opened on April 15, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming analyzed four major factors that currently affect China's foreign trade: the US subprime mortgage crisis has had a negative impact on the markets and consumer confidence of developed countries; The price of raw materials in the international market increased; RMB exchange rate changes greatly; Since last year, relevant departments have implemented a series of macro-control policies and measures, such as lowering export tax rebates. "The combination of multiple factors has an impact on the export of enterprises."
On April 1, CLSA released China's Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in March. The PMI index aims to reflect the health of the manufacturing industry and is an internationally prevailing leading indicator system for macroeconomic monitoring. PMI higher than 50 indicates that the manufacturing industry is in an expansion trend, and vice versa. Worryingly, China's order export index, which accounts for 30% of the PMI, has fallen for two consecutive months, only 50.9, a 14 month low. This means that the demand for export orders continues to decline, and the analysis shows that this export slump may last for a long time. ?
On April 30, the Ministry of Commerce released the Spring Report on China's Foreign Trade Forms. The report points out that China's foreign trade is facing a tightening domestic and international environment, and the uncertainties are further increasing. China is mainly faced with three major uncertainties. The slowdown of world economy and trade growth is the biggest uncertainty facing China's export situation. The impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is deepening into the real economy such as consumption and investment. In 2007, the EU, the United States and Japan were China's largest trading partners. Among them, the United States accounted for 17.5% of China's direct exports. From the perspective of world trade structure, if the US economy falls into recession, the economies of the EU and Japan will be affected to varying degrees. ?
At the same time, primary products in the international market continue to rise. As a major manufacturing and trading country, China has become the main undertaker of the rise of raw materials. The profit space of export enterprises has been squeezed, the profit level has declined, and the operating pressure has increased. According to the data provided by the Ministry of Commerce, in the first quarter, the import prices of crude oil, refined oil, iron ore, soybeans and edible vegetable oil in China increased by 66%, 60.6%, 80.6%, 77% and 69.9% respectively. However, due to the sluggish demand and fierce competition in the international market, the price increase of industrial manufactured products lagged far behind that of primary products, and it was increasingly difficult to transfer the cost of raw materials by raising prices. ?
In addition, domestic RMB appreciation has accelerated, raw material prices have risen, labor and environmental protection costs have risen, interest rates have increased, and foreign trade policy adjustments have had a superposition effect. Since this year, China's export growth has been slowing down. If the export growth declines too fast, even slower than the GDP growth rate, it is likely to affect employment and tax revenue in some regions. The negative multiplier effect brought about by the contraction of external demand will inhibit domestic demand. ?
Export enterprises are in urgent need of survival
Foreign trade export is one of the three driving forces of China's economic development. This year, China's export situation has undergone tremendous changes. Among them, the experience of the textile industry is very representative. ?
"In 2008, one third of textile enterprises were on the verge of bankruptcy." At the beginning of January, this news was reproduced among the media, which attracted the attention of the government. The high-level instructions of the State Council required the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce to investigate. Therefore, various relevant institutions conducted a lot of research. Textiles are one of China's most representative export commodities. Last year, the foreign trade surplus was 150 billion US dollars. ?
After the Spring Festival, the China Textile Industry Association carried out a thorough investigation on the textile industry of six provinces. The export volume of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong, Fujian and Hebei provinces surveyed accounted for 85% of the whole industry, concentrating the most powerful textile enterprises and industrial clusters in China. ?
It is understood that in 2007, one third of textile enterprises accounted for 80% of the profits of the whole industry. Most of these enterprises' profit margins were 6% - 10%, while the average profit margin of the whole industry was only 3.9%. Affected by all aspects, it is difficult for textile enterprises to obtain long-term orders. Even one third of the enterprises that create profits are experiencing the most difficult days; At present, the profit margin of two-thirds of enterprises in the textile industry is only 0.62%. ?
The rapid appreciation of RMB is considered by many export enterprises as the primary factor leading to the dilemma of the textile industry. In the first quarter of 2008, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar reached 4.49%, surpassing the growth of the whole year of 2006 and January July 2007. China's textile exports are basically in the form of settlement. The appreciation of RMB against the US dollar in the first quarter has made the export enterprises in this industry generally encounter great difficulties. In addition, the delivery date is generally 3-5 months. When pricing, enterprises should consider the exchange rate level several months later. Most enterprises use the level of 6.6 to 6.7. The 103rd Canton Fair showed that existing customers often could not accept the US dollar offer to raise prices, so orders shifted to Vietnam and other countries, while the profit space of Chinese enterprises basically disappeared. ?
"The appreciation of the RMB has a certain impact on the auxiliary material industry. Due to this impact, the prices of raw materials have generally soared, but the profits have not increased accordingly. Now, every percentage point of the appreciation of the RMB, textile export profits have declined to varying degrees." On April 12, at the conference of the official establishment of the China Open Economy Research Institute of the University of International Business and Economics, Wang Yu, vice president of China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, told reporters. ?
Unlike the textile industry, China's mechanical and electrical products are export industries supported and encouraged by the government. Even so, the export of mechanical and electrical products is not immune from the rapid appreciation of the RMB. ?
According to the data provided by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, the export growth of mechanical and electrical products in 2007 was 27%, but this year's growth has declined significantly. It is predicted that the export growth of mechanical and electrical products in 2008 will decline by about 5 percentage points. ?
Objective analysis shows that the main factors that lead to difficulties in the operation of export processing enterprises, in addition to the factors of RMB appreciation, are as follows:
First, the prices of raw materials and upstream products rose significantly. According to the comprehensive calculation, the production cost of domestic enterprises has increased by 20% - 30% due to the rising prices of raw materials and upstream products, which has become the first factor driving the rise of enterprise costs. ?
Second, changes in domestic and foreign trade policies. In recent years, due to the growing international trade surplus, China has been forced to adjust its export policy for foreign trade. The basic direction of the adjustment is to restrict the export of labor-intensive and low processing industries, which creates a lot of costs for enterprises. In particular, it has a great impact on traditional advantageous industries such as textile shoes and hats, jewelry, leather, processing, feed, etc. These enterprises are concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region. ?
Third, the impact of monetary tightening policy implemented by the central bank. The central bank has strictly restricted the scale of loans, further aggravating the financial difficulties of export processing enterprises. ?
Fourth, the impact of the US subprime crisis. The subprime mortgage crisis has hit the US economy and also hit the US demand for Chinese goods. Since the second half of 2007, the orders of textile and clothing enterprises in the Pearl River Delta region from the United States have decreased significantly. In January 2008, the growth rate of China's exports to the United States dropped significantly to 22.7% compared with the same period last year. ?
Fifth, the rising labor cost of export processing enterprises is an important factor. Since 2002, the widespread "shortage of migrant workers", including the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, has led to an increase in the price of labor in short supply. ?
In 2004, the "shortage of migrant workers" broke out in the Pearl River Delta, especially in the electronics, toys, clothing, computers, manufacturing and other industries. In 2006, the number of migrant workers in the Pearl River Delta reached 2 million. The essence of the "shortage of migrant workers" is the "shortage of cheap migrant workers". In order to retain workers, enterprises have increased wages. At present, due to the low relative income of workers, the internal imbalance has been caused, which has promoted the increase of external imbalance and formed a vicious circle. The internal demand is insufficient, the products are heavily dependent on external demand, the dependence on foreign trade is increasing, the foreign trade surplus is expanding, and the foreign exchange reserves are increasing. At the same time, in order to gain international market competitiveness, export products can only further reduce labor costs at home, and the internal and external imbalances are further exacerbated. ?
This development mode will also be restricted by laws and regulations. Reducing the level of labor welfare and security, and reducing labor rights, not only goes against the worldwide wave of progress of people-oriented and corporate social responsibility, but also is restricted by China's Labor Contract Law. ?
Export dilemma brings factory closure and increased unemployment
Under the superposition effect of policies such as reducing surplus, RMB appreciation, reducing tax rebates, and levying sliding standard tax, some brand enterprises with high added value of products and long industrial chain have strong adjustment tolerance, but most small and medium-sized enterprises will be squeezed out. ?
There are more than 3000 textile enterprises in Zibo, Shandong. At present, about 30% of export orders have been transferred to surrounding countries. If this situation continues, more than 100000 people are expected to be unemployed; ?
More than 60 of the 600 textile enterprises in a town in Jiangyin, Jiangsu, have closed down; ?
According to a recent survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, 17% of enterprise members intend to transfer their enterprises in China to neighboring countries. ?
More importantly, if these textile enterprises fall into a desperate situation, it will endanger the employment of 15 million people. The labor-intensive textile industry is truly a livelihood industry. China's textile industry has more than 20 million workers, of which 13 million are migrant workers. If two thirds of enterprises have the risk of bankruptcy, it will pose a great threat to social stability. ?
On the other hand, China is in a critical moment of fierce competition with India, Vietnam and other countries in the international market. At present, many domestic enterprises, including some foreign-funded enterprises, have transferred to these countries, forcing us to give up our market share after years of hard work. ?
The situation of other export industries is also not optimistic. Recently, the China Open Economy Research Institute of the University of International Business and Economics conducted an investigation on the export situation of enterprises in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Guizhou and other places, as well as the Chamber of Commerce for Importers and Exporters in textile, light industry, mining and chemical industries. The survey results show that with the deepening of the US subprime mortgage crisis and the continued downward trend of the world economy, China's exports are facing serious difficulties under such a deteriorating external environment, coupled with the accelerated appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, the adjustment of export tax rebate rate, the implementation of the new labor law and the increase in interest rates and other factors. At the same time, the problems of factory closure and increased unemployment caused by export difficulties are becoming increasingly prominent. ?
There is a view that China's economic development should increase domestic demand and reduce dependence on exports. The reason is that US private consumption accounts for about 70% of GDP, while China's final consumption accounted for only 39.2% of GDP in 2006. But these two statistical methods are different and incomparable. In the United States, only one third of private consumption involves physical products. In 2006, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4307.73 billion US dollars, accounting for 32.6% of the GDP of that year (13194.7 billion US dollars); In 2007, China's share was 36.2%, actually higher than that of the United States. ?
Because exports only involve physical products. Therefore, there is little room to expand the proportion of domestic material consumption in GDP, and thus slow down exports, so as to stimulate economic development. ?
At present, the total volume of China's manufacturing industry ranks second in the world, and the output of 172 types of products ranks first in the world. The complete industrial system has created the foundation for China to be a big manufacturing country. However, the possible tide of product transfer has given India, Vietnam, Cambodia and other countries with more labor cost advantages more development opportunities. ?
In early May, the Hong Kong Trade and Development Council, together with the Hong Kong Garment Association and the Hong Kong Footwear Association