Analysis And Prospect Of Sino US Textile Trade In 2008

American consumers are facing multiple pressures of mortgage pressure, stock market shrinkage, depreciation of the US dollar, rising prices and threat of unemployment. Consumer spending is expected to decline significantly.

The consumption demand of textile products will inevitably be negatively affected. The overall consumption and import level of US textile products in 2008 will probably be the first negative growth since 2001.

Judging from the current situation, CAFTA, which has been implemented for more than a year, has not recovered the unfavorable situation of textile exports to the US surrounding countries. Canada, Mexico and Central American countries may continue to reduce exports to the US. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other South Asian countries will continue to struggle to expand their share in the US market. Vietnam, which is emerging from the WTO after 2008, is expected to maintain a rapid growth momentum. It directly threatens India's position as the third largest textile product import source in the United States.

The favorable factors are mainly the further increase of quota categories and the expansion of market share. The main disadvantages are: 1, the RMB appreciation relative to the US dollar; 2, the implementation of the new labor law has increased the production cost; 3, the profit margins of domestic textile enterprises are low, and the ability of market fluctuation is weak; 4, the products of the non restricted categories have been increasing for 3 consecutive years, and the growth potential is limited in 2008; 5, before the end of the bilateral agreement, the US textile industry may again apply to the US government for trade protection measures to undermine the stability of Sino US textile product trade policies.

Despite the snow disaster in the southern part of China, this sign is still worthy of great attention.

At present, major textile groups in the United States have put forward various plans, including countervailing investigations, anti-dumping investigations, self initiated anti-dumping measures by the government based on monitoring plans, and safeguard measures for specific products (Clause 421).