Earthquake Catastrophes Again Test The Economy And Stock Market.

From the current perspective, the impact of the earthquake on the real economy is mainly in the southwest and northwest regions, but it does not exclude the impact on other areas.

The short-term impact on the overall economic operation is not yet clear. It can be determined after the announcement of specific figures, but it has a certain impact on the psychological expectations of investors. The market estimates that this reaction will have a process, and the extent of the impact may be released along with the gradual acquisition of information.

We must not underestimate the impact of earthquakes on the real economy.

In general, catastrophic areas will devastate the most affected areas.

According to relevant information, from the domestic point of view, the economic losses of the Tangshan earthquake accounted for 3.8% of the gross national product of that year.

From the international perspective, such as the 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan and the magnitude of the Tangshan earthquake that occurred in China in 1976, the economic loss of Hanshin earthquake is estimated to be 2% of the gross national product of Japan.

Short term impact on CPI (consumer price index).

Mainly based on the April CPI growth rate of 8.5%, mainly due to the promotion of food and housing prices, a slight rebound.

However, from a small point of view, the main driving force is a rebound in meat and poultry prices.

According to the information of Nong Bo network, the supply of live pigs will begin to increase greatly before and after 5-6 months in 2008, and the price of pork will keep decreasing.

Sichuan is an important pig producing area. In 2006, pork output accounted for about 10% of the country's total, and grain accounted for 8.5%.

Impact on the stock market plate (1) currently 66 temporary suspension of Chengdu Chongqing plate, but do not rule out the impact of other areas of enterprises.

What is the impact of these on the relevant enterprises? If it is the impact of stoppage and shutdown, this impact is temporary; if the loss of assets and personnel is caused to some enterprises, then the impact will be relatively large, but it is not well evaluated at present.

(2) we should also pay close attention to the impact of Chengdu Chongqing plate on related industries, that is, the impact of related industries on the middle and lower reaches and the same industry. If the relevant enterprises are affected, they will reduce the supply and bring opportunities to the relevant industries.

(3) there may be related plates benefiting from medicine, building materials and steel after disaster reconstruction, but insurance may be adversely affected.