Overheating Alarm Has Lifted The Relaxation Of Macroeconomic Regulation And Control.

Last week, the National Information Center issued the "China Economic Monitoring and early warning report" (hereinafter referred to as the "early warning report"), which reflects the macroeconomic performance of the composite index (seen as the leading indicator of China's economic trend) has dropped slightly for 7 consecutive months, which means that China's future economy will continue downward.

The report also concluded that the risk of overheating in China has basically been lifted.

Some economists believe that China's economy has been overheating since 2003, and if the rapid economic decline is a good thing.

But this view is strongly opposed by some others. They believe that China is still in the stage of industrialization and if the speed of economic growth is too fast, it may arise from the window.

On the surface, the risk of overheating in China has been eliminated, but the corresponding worry is: is there any risk hidden in our economy?

Should macro-control be relaxed in the future?

On these issues, we interviewed Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the National Information Center's Economic Forecasting Department, and Chen Xing, chief economist of Paris Peregrine securities, France.

Chief macroeconomic analyst Zhu Jianfang.

　　經濟過熱已經過去

Economic Observer: do you think China's economy has been relieved from overheating alarm?

Zhu Baoliang: according to the early warning report, the index of synthetic synthesis reflecting the macroeconomic performance has dropped slightly for 7 consecutive months, which means that the Chinese economy continues to descend.

Based on the trend of these indicators, we make a judgement: the main macroeconomic indicators have been restored to the average level of reform and opening up in the past 30 years, and China's economy has begun to show a more obvious decline.

Chen Xingdong: I don't think China's economy is overheated this year. The Chinese economy has not overheated this year, and the current Chinese economy is likely to go cold.

This is because, although the growth of the production law is about 10%, the economic growth in China has dropped very large and is too large, which will cause a great blow to the Chinese economy and may cause unnecessary harm.

As for the early-warning report, I think there is no problem in the investigation itself, but I feel different about the information collected from the survey, because the investment in fixed assets is also rising, which is definitely not in line with the actual situation.

Zhu Jianfang: the peak of this economic growth is over. From the direction of China's economic operation, it is going down.

The performance is: investment, in the first and second quarters, although nominal investment has not changed, but because inflation is serious, the actual investment growth is relatively low; on the export side, if we exclude some factors that can not be compared, and consider the RMB appreciation factor, the export growth is relatively low; in terms of consumption, the early economic slowdown will also have an impact on the latter consumption.

I judged that the economic growth rate in the two quarter was around 10%, which may actually be less than 10%, because the economy was moving down from 12%, so this growth rate is relatively slow.

In the future, exports will continue to slow down, imports may exceed exports, and the scale of the surplus will shrink, because the slowdown in economic growth will have an impact on the income of residents, and consumption expectations will be worse, so consumption will not continue to rise.

In short, the risk that our economy faces now is not the risk of overheating, but the downward risk of the economy.

If the tight policy continues to maintain, the intensity and contraction of economic contraction will become more obvious.

　　微觀經濟風險加大

Economic Observer: Recently, the relevant ministries and economists have gone to the enterprise to conduct research. Has our micro economic level accumulated a lot of risks?

Zhu Baoliang: when the economic growth slows down, the enterprises will be greatly affected and financial risks will appear.

For example, there will be a jump in corporate profits. Some major industries may have excess capacity. In addition, investment and consumption will be affected. Accordingly, the real estate market and stock market will also be depressed.

Zhu Jianfang: at present, the tightening of monetary policy to curb economic growth is more obvious. Under the condition of tight funds, enterprises have already had difficulties, such as slowing export of foreign trade enterprises, tight funds of real estate enterprises, the deteriorating business environment facing enterprises, and the gradual slowdown of corporate profits.

Now the risk of hard landing will increase.

But after the policy adjustment, the economy will not be hard landing.

Chen Xingxing: the risk that the microcosmic level needs to guard against is the bankruptcy of large scale enterprises, especially the bankruptcy of export enterprises, and the bankruptcy of large scale real estate enterprises. If these enterprises fail, there may be repayment problems. The bad loan rate of banks will rise and the banks will appear to be restricted. After this series of problems arise, there will be employment problems.

　　宏觀調控可能放松

Economic Observer: is there any sign of relaxation at present? Will the future relax?

Zhu Baoliang: now, macroeconomic regulation and control will not relax immediately, because prices are still at a high level, especially the prices of manufactured goods and raw material purchase are still on the rise. Tight monetary policy will not change greatly, and fiscal policy will be a little looser.

In the second half of the year, macroeconomic regulation and control must grasp the balance point of maintaining stable and rapid economic development and curbing inflation. Focusing on "inflation control, stable demand, structural adjustment and risk prevention", tighter monetary policy should be more flexible in grasping implementation intensity, emphasis and rhythm, and a stable fiscal policy should increase support for structural adjustment and support for people's livelihood, so as to avoid a major economic fluctuation.

Zhu Jianfang: there is another important aspect of future inflation, because inflation is still in contradiction with growth.

Looking at some cases, there may be a signal of relaxation in the macro policy, because before the policy is anti inflation, we all worry more about inflation and suppress it. This will reflect the profits of enterprises, and the economic slowdown will be more serious.

But if inflation is low, policy easing will accelerate the economy.

Chen Xing movement: we have seen obvious signs of relaxation in some ways. For example, the first is that the price control is relaxed and the price is adjusted. This is what everyone can feel.

Second, the Sichuan earthquake, the amount limit of bank loans to Sichuan has been abolished, so that money is bound to increase, because the material needed for Sichuan reconstruction is not produced in Sichuan, but also in other places. If enterprises can say that production is for disaster areas, they need funds, so that when they go to bank loans, banks will lend.

Third, on the export side, we see that the export tax rebate has begun to operate in opposite directions. The government has also increased the tax rebate rate for some textile enterprises and garment enterprises, and the central government has also made investigations in the local areas. This is a sign.

The direction of macroeconomic regulation and control in the second half of this year must be relaxed, but the degree of relaxation will be worth studying.

　　記者分析

Compared with mainland investors, foreign investors are more aware of the signs of loosening of China's macroeconomic regulation and control.

In July 9th, a Hongkong investor told me, "I feel that China's macro-control has been relaxed."

I can not comment on this because we have only seen some cases.

For example, three weeks ago, the interest rates on mortgage loans of some Shenzhen banks were reduced, and some large scale real estate loan companies got loans. In the past few years, leaders at all levels of the central government had personally investigated the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises all over the country, and even some private enterprises had obtained loans.

But some of these cases have not yet been confirmed.

Earlier this year, due to the relatively strict macroeconomic regulation and control policy in China, some private economic development in China was greatly affected. Some economists concluded that China's macroeconomic regulation and control had already hurt the private economy, such as the collapse of tens of thousands of enterprises in Guangzhou, the annual interest rate of Jiang Zhe's private usury increased to more than 100%, and some foreign enterprises and joint ventures in Shandong were relocating.

The deterioration of corporate earnings will be gradually reflected in the second quarter of macroeconomic data. Before the National Information Center "China Economic Monitoring and early warning report" has shown: China's economic growth has begun to decline, and in the next few years, China's economy can be a sharp downward trend.

"The risk of our economy now is not the risk of overheating, but the downward risk of the economy."

The views of CITIC Jian Fang represent some of the views of macroeconomists.

The former is what we like to see, and the latter is what we try to avoid.

So we see the swing of policy in economic development and change.

In May, Pan Xiangdong, chief macroeconomic analyst of Everbright Securities, said he felt that China's macroeconomic regulation and control was tight and loose, and that it was tight to control expectations.

Now, more cases prove that there is a sign of relaxation in policy.

Therefore, although economists are still debating whether or not monetary policy should be kept tight, we can see from the government's action track that in the past, the way of increasing exchange rate and tight credit is conducive to controlling domestic inflation and adjusting economic structure by reducing foreign trade surplus and investment, but at the same time, the risk of economic downturn may be accompanied by the slowdown of global economy.

Maybe China is beginning to reflect on the risk of economic downturn.