In The First Half Of The Year, The Trade Surplus Decreased By 11.8% Compared With The Same Period Last Year.

Statistics from customs showed that China's foreign trade import and export value continued to grow in the first half of 08 years.

The growth rate of imports significantly outpaced export growth, dragging down the trade surplus by 11.8% compared to the same period in 07 years, and a net decrease of 13 billion 210 million US dollars.

Because of the continuous expansion of "China's demand", the monthly import of primary products has been more than 100 billion US dollars for three consecutive months. In the first half of this year, the import growth of primary products has reached nearly 70%.

I believe that even considering the possible short-term drop in China's economic growth, the total import volume will also be enlarged again and again, and its trend of growth exceeding export will continue and become the norm.

In this way, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the favorable balance of trade, and the effect they may have once they resonate, deserve a rainy day.

As we all know, the foundation of China's economic miracle comes from the export oriented strategy under cost control.

Nowadays, the land gate is closed, land price and land rent are high, the labor protection system is put on the agenda, and the labor cost is no longer cheap; after the reorganization, the banks pay more attention to the quality of loans, and it is not easy for enterprises to raise capital by indirect financing channels.

Under such circumstances, it is not surprising that the slowdown in the export of traditional commodities, mainly textiles, clothing and footwear.

After all, this is the structural adjustment mechanism of the economy itself playing its role.

Electronic and electrical equipment, machinery and equipment and high-tech products have also become new "three carriages", helping to maintain the growth rate of China's exports.

According to the mainstream, it is not easy to get the above results in the context of the rapid appreciation of the RMB.

But we must see that the total trade value between China and Europe is the first place for all trading partner countries, and the trade growth rate between China and Europe is more than twice that of that between China and the United States.

The secret is that the renminbi has been running on a downward trend against the euro since 2005, and the trade with Europe has been running smoothly.

Obviously, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has great influence on trade.

Fortunately, at the beginning of July, the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the purpose of curbing inflation, which reduced the short-term trend of the euro against the RMB, and once again tightened the environment of China's foreign trade.

But if we relax our vision and take into consideration the interest rate and monetary links between the three largest economies in China, the United States and Europe, I am afraid it should not be too optimistic.

At present, the people's Bank of China is still reluctant to raise interest rates. I am afraid the main reason is to wait for the signal to increase the interest rate in the United States.

After all, global warming is the same as inflation.

If China first increases interest rates in the US, it will directly increase the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, further weaken the already weakening trade surplus between China and the United States, and cause the RMB to break through the lower reaches of the euro exchange rate.

In the three quarter, if the world economic environment is still not alleviated, China's proud trade surplus may even be lower than US $200 billion in the second half.

Is the decline in surplus growth really worth worrying about?

In the turbulent environment of international economic environment, the emerging market countries represented by China are located in the middle and lower reaches of the economic chain. The international monetary weapon, which is neither a central country, can export economic problems, nor can it imitate the resource-based countries to carry out the cycle arbitrage of the wealth of the countries such as "oil dollar" and so on.

If we want to maintain economic resilience, China will rely on fiscal surplus and foreign exchange reserves to prove its internal and external strength and maintain confidence in its internal and external prosperity.

If there is a lack of profit contribution from the export enterprises in the micro level, the balance of the current account surplus is diminished in the meso scale. Does the financial and external savings at the macro level become a "no wood" and "a passive water"?

Such worries are not impossible.

If China's inflation spreads, forcing the monetary authorities to take a long cycle and a big increase in interest rates, it may drag China into the "double high" pattern of price and interest rates, and repeatedly push up the RMB exchange rate, so that the trade surplus will continue to shrink. At that time, the foundation of economic security, foreign exchange reserves and fiscal revenue, will also face severe challenges.

Obviously, the trade surplus is the "lifeline" of the current Chinese economy.

Shen Hongpu (researcher of XinDa Asset Management Co Research Center, China)

Related news

Ministry of Commerce Studies export promotion policy

The reduction of relative surplus is more concerned about export.

As exports grew by 17.6% in June, compared with the 28.1% increase in May, it was obvious that many experts believe that the government should relax control over exports, such as raising export rebates and canceling some restrictions on exports.

From every single month, the monthly export growth in the first half of the year was significantly different, for example, in February, exports increased by only 6.5%, but in March, exports increased sharply to 30.6%, and in June it was only 17.6%.

Ma Xiaoping, a macroeconomic analyst with HSBC in Beijing, said that since last year, the export trend of every month has seen a trend of turbulence. This is mainly because, since last year, China has promulgated some trade policies for some specific industries, such as the adjustment of export tax rebates.

This kind of shock can be verified by industry. It can be corroborated with the export situation of some labor-intensive industries, such as textiles and clothing.

The export of clothing and accessories products increased by 3.4% in June, the lowest in the first half of this year, lower than that in February, which was affected by the Spring Festival and early snowstorm and freezing disasters. 2.3%.

Ma Xiaoping said that improving the export tax rebate of some industries is feasible. Under the current export environment deterioration, there should be some policy tilt and adjustment for certain industries.

In view of the current form of foreign trade, there are claims that tightening credit policies should be slowed down. Ma Xiaoping said that domestic inflation is still worth paying attention to. The central bank's monetary policy will still solve this problem in a targeted way, and relax credit, and those small and medium enterprises that are really facing crisis will still not get credit support.

In view of whether the government will introduce some preferential policies, Liu Haiquan, deputy director of the comprehensive Department of Commerce, said that the relevant policies are being studied, but there is no conclusion yet.

Petroleum

Imports of refined oil to increase supply

Yesterday's customs statistics showed that 90 million 530 thousand tons of crude oil imported in the first half of this year increased by 11% from 81 million 540 thousand tons a year ago, but the increase was unchanged from 11.2% last year.

In addition, due to tight domestic supply to ensure supply, in the first half of this year, refined oil imports increased by 16.4% to 21 million 10 thousand tons, compared with the same period last year, while imports of refined oil decreased by 1%.

PetroChina related sources said that in the first half of the year, the international crude oil prices rose sharply, the domestic crude oil imports to maintain 11% growth is not easy, we can see that the rapid growth of domestic oil demand.

However, he believes that crude oil imports may decline in the second half of this year due to seasonal demand and falling international oil prices.

Data show that crude oil imports last year amounted to 1.631 billion tons, of which 81 million 540 thousand tons in the first half, almost flat in the first half of the year, and China's dependence on crude oil imports was 47.1%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the 45% in 2006.

The above figures believe that, according to the situation of last year, even if the import volume decreased in the second half of this year, the total import volume of crude oil could increase by nearly 20 million tons this year. In general, the import of crude oil is in steady growth.

On the price of imports, the average price of imported refined oil reached US $758.9 / ton in the first half, up 77.3%, and the average import price of crude oil rose by 67.3% to 717.7 US dollars / ton.

Last year, 18 million 50 thousand tons of refined oil imports fell by 1% compared with the same period last year, PetroChina said, mainly because the international oil price in the first half of last year was only 55 dollars, and now it is as high as 136 dollars. Until last year, oil refineries still had profits in May, so the enthusiasm of domestic refineries has not been hit, so the pressure of protecting imported products is far less than that of this year.