Affected By Many Factors, Guangdong'S Foreign Trade Enterprises Are Facing Severe Winter.

The RMB appreciation, raw material prices, overseas demand growth decline, labor costs rise, export tax rebate rate reduction, many bad factors cumulative effect in the middle of the year, China's large number of foreign trade enterprises are pushed into the cold deep sea, no shore.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in July 10th, China exported 666 billion 600 million US dollars in the first half of this year, the growth rate was 5.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. In June, it exported US $121 billion 530 million, and the growth rate was 10.5 percentage points lower than that in May this year.

As the largest province of China's exports, the situation of Guangdong's foreign trade enterprises has always been the test of the cold and warm export of China.

Now, the south is going through the coldest summer.

Wen Changfen recently rejected a large order from WAL-MART, USA, worth 1 million 500 thousand yuan, worth 75 million yuan.

"What is the 1 million 500 thousand concept?

The world's similar manufacturers, except us, do not have an annual output of more than 2 million pieces, which is enough for them to eat for one year. "

Wen Changfen is the world's largest ironing board manufacturer Guangdong Xinxin daily products Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Xinxin daily") chairman, more than 99% of the company's products are used for export.

No, it's not WAL-MART's purchasing price that is too low, but the cost of producing raw materials is rising too fast.

Taking steel as an example, in 2007, the average price of steel in 30 major cities and five varieties of the country was 4316 yuan / ton. In January this year, the price rose to 4966 yuan / ton, and by the end of 5, the price rose rapidly to 6207 yuan / ton, up nearly 5 percent over the same period last year, and the absolute ton price increased by 2053 yuan.

Just because steel prices rose, Wen Changfen would spend more than 2 million yuan a month.

Besides steel, the cost of plastics, wood, packaging paper, labor and so on is also rising. The new production cost of new daily use has increased by about 38%. compared with the end of last year. "At the beginning of 07, 45 yuan was still earned, and now the cost price was more than 55 yuan.

The price of WAL-MART was reported at the end of last year, 50 yuan per piece, and it could still be done at that time.

But now, the raw materials are on a new high for one month. Do you dare to answer the job?

Wen Changfen became the only enterprise in China to win the anti-dumping lawsuit in Europe and the United States.

Wen Changfen told reporters that before and after the Spring Festival this year, he raised the price of 20%-25%. on the whole line, but because the delivery cycle of ironing board was usually 3-6 months, the product had not been delivered after the price was raised, and the price of raw materials had partly covered the price increase.

Melancholy is also the chemical fiber industry.

Products sold to more than 30 markets at home and abroad, a large class of textile raw materials enterprises in Henan Xinxiang chemical fiber (000949, SZ), the first quarter net profit growth of 797%, but in the first three months of this year, the company's net profit growth dived, negative growth 89%. its half year performance also greatly reduced.

The announcement shows that since 2008, the prices of main raw materials for production have generally risen, and the price of products has declined considerably. After preliminary calculation by the Ministry of finance, it is estimated that the net profit of 1-6 months in 2008 will decrease significantly compared with the same period last year, and the decrease will be between 50%-95%.

It is understood that the price of sulfuric acid and sulphur dioxide in the main raw materials of chemical fiber industry has increased by 496% and 145%. respectively compared with the same period last year.

Compared with other foreign trade enterprises struggling on the line of life and death, Wen Changfen felt fortunate that he took decisive measures in November last year to lock in the US dollar exchange rate, and settled all the export places settled in US dollars in the middle price of RMB exchange rate 1:7.569 in August 24, 2007.

When the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar enters "head 6", it can save hundreds of millions of yuan per year for Wen.

As the renminbi is devalued in the euro area, sterling area and Australian dollar area, Wen Changfen also requires clients to settle in local currency to reduce exchange rate effect.

"Because we already have enough overseas market share and compete with overseas manufacturers, overseas orders for Metro and Tesco are almost shipped from us, so we have the bottom line to lock in the exchange rate until the RMB depreciate," Wen Changfen said.

Lao Zhang, who is engaged in leather shoes production in Baiyun District, is not so lucky.

Last year, the EU anti-dumping against China's leather shoes had left the old Zhang badly injured, and it happened to catch up with the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar.

This makes the old OEM who has made the initial OEM completely lose his temper, and he still has some benefits when he receives the order. After two months, the collection has become a losing proposition.

Data show that in the past three years, the cumulative increase in the RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 21%., especially in the first half of this year. The RMB has appreciated by 7.22% against the US dollar.

More overly, some overseas buyers have been able to see the trend of RMB appreciation and deliberately default on their payments, leading to hundreds of thousands of dollars in every business done by Lao Zhang.

Lao Zhang felt that he could not pass the day. He shut down two factories not long ago.

"I've been working hard for six years, but I haven't had a few months."

If the price of raw materials and the appreciation of the renminbi are much more than expected, the contraction of overseas demand caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis is unexpected.

This is also evident in the notice of a number of listed companies.

The production of viscose staple fiber Australia (002172, SZ) decreased its net profit growth in the first half of July 9th in order to make a deficit.

The company said that the US subprime mortgage crisis has slowed down international economic growth and affected the export of its products, which is an important reason for the failure of the company's total revenue to achieve the desired results.

In an interview with reporters, the Xinxiang chemical fiber securities department also said that the subprime mortgage crisis and other factors led to a slowdown in the export of downstream textile and garment enterprises, which indirectly affected the demand for upstream products.

The decline in the performance of export oriented enterprises is not an isolated phenomenon.

According to statistics from Guangzhou customs, Guangdong exported $35 billion 560 million to the US in the first half of 2008, an increase of 5.6% over the same period last year, far below the overall growth rate of 13% of Guangdong's foreign trade exports in the same period, which is also lower than the 13.4% growth rate of Guangdong's exports to the US in the first half of 2007.

Among them, following the February of this year, in June, Guangdong's exports to the United States again showed a year-on-year decline.

Exports in the single month amounted to US $6 billion 450 million, down 1.9% from the same period last year, down by 0.6%.. In terms of industry, clothing and accessories, plastic products and toys exports showed a significant decline, down 27.3%, 12.8% and 3.7%. respectively.

According to Wen Changfen's judgment, the foreign trade environment is hard to improve in the past one or two years, and the RMB may not stop after the "6 era".

Overseas buyers have shown impatience with raising prices.

Wen Changfen said he plans to raise the price again after September. 25%. some European buyers complain that the price will be almost the same as those of Ukraine and Czech when the price is raised again.

"If our enterprises can not do overseas business, it will be more difficult for other enterprises of the same kind".

In order to avoid putting eggs in the same basket, Wen Changfen also tried to shift some of his energy into the domestic market last year.

However, because of the unfamiliarity with the market environment, Wen is still at the stage of exploration. In addition to the bulk purchase of hotels in cash, multinational corporations in China's hypermarkets or department stores have not set up a complete distribution system.

More primary and small-scale foreign trade enterprises, which only earn some processing fees, have no time to take account of market pformation.

Life or death, closing this month or clenching your teeth is all the options in front of them.

Last week at the 2nd anniversary celebration of the China Textile Association, the owner of a cloth factory who did not want to reveal his name was hard to swallow.

In the past, a row of lorries stopped at the door waiting for the goods to be delivered.

In fact, before and after, it is at most 8 years.

Today, his factory only makes short-term orders.

Zhu Qingguo, President of the chamber of Commerce, said at the celebration scene that the difficulties faced by the textile industry this year are unprecedented.

Collective crying has brought the warm breeze of policy.

At the beginning of this month, ministries and commissions were concentrating on research in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other export intensive industrial provinces. After that, rumors about the export tax rebate rate were rising, and the Ministry of commerce did not deny this.

The latest rumor is that the Ministry of Commerce has formally recommended to the State Council that the pace of RMB appreciation should be slowed down so as to slow down the pressure of export enterprises.

"Policy formulation should be forward-looking, especially industrial policy. How can it be concentrated last year?"

Cheng Jiansan, deputy director of the Institute of macroeconomics of Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, has always believed that the government intervenes too much in the real economy and often delays the opportunity.

In Cheng Jiansan's view, a guiding policy similar to the export tax rebate rate reduction and strengthening environmental protection requirements should be introduced in the first two years when inflation was not present, instead of concentrating on one side last year.

The current industrial pformation pains, belongs to the market in its own way, the survival of the fittest.

The new policy signal is only a temporary policy and can not see where its long-term direction is.

The Orient Securities Industry Research Report thinks that from 08 years, the domestic textile and garment industry will enter a downward trend of short-term growth. The industry growth mode mainly based on capacity expansion and homogeneous primary products OEM export is gradually being abandoned, and the industry development mode mainly based on technological innovation, brand cultivation and channel construction is being nurtured and will become the mainstream mode in the future.

In the growth process of the industry's survival of the fittest, the polarization between enterprises will also become increasingly significant. In the short term, the decline of industry growth and the elimination of a large number of low-end products manufacturing and export enterprises will become inevitable.

But in the medium and long term, it is conducive to the improvement of the overall competitiveness of the industry, and the excellent enterprises that survive in adversity will also get a better development environment.

Some enterprises are already in pition.

Huafeng spandex (002064, SZ) securities affairs representative told reporters that although the company's performance in the first half of this year has been slightly reduced, the company has found a way to achieve high efficiency in energy conservation and environmental protection.

Taking energy consumption per unit as an example, at present, the international level of comprehensive energy consumption per unit GDP of spandex industry is 0.5 tons of standard coal / 10000 yuan, while Huafeng spandex has achieved 0.35 tons of standard coal / 10000 yuan.

Xinxiang chemical fiber has ordered 24 TF2003B continuous spinning machines and 2 sets of spinning machines to send exhaust air to major shareholder Xinxiang egret chemical fiber group, and build "differential viscose filament technology pformation project" to enhance the technical content of products.

While Wen Changfen made 20 million technical improvements from the bank loan to the production process, the next step will be to improve the mechanization level, which is expected to be effective in two years.

On the one hand, it can reduce the production cost, and on the other hand, it can increase the production efficiency.

However, with the improvement of mechanization, Wen Changfen's factory only needs more than 400 people to meet the production requirements.

At present, the total staff of the factory have more than 1200 people.

So how do more of these people solve employment?

This is another difficult problem that plagued Wen Chang fan.