Economic Half Year Report Focuses Only On Inflation And Tight Policy To Find A Balance.

On the 17 day, the "semi annual report" of the macro economy was released and the result was neutral.

GDP dropped 1.8 percentage points to 10.4% in the first half of this year, making the speculation that the growth of the economy dropped sharply.

In addition, the CPI growth rate in June dropped by 0.6 percentage points to 7.1% compared with May, but it still rose by 7.9% in the first half of the year, much higher than the 4.8% target set at the beginning of the year, and the inflation pressure became even more obvious.

"The regulatory policy will continue to be tight, and the main objective will be to stare at inflation and find a balance to prevent the economy from falling sharply."

Fan Jianping, director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, said in an interview.

Although the central economic analysis's regulation policy has not yet been released in the second half of the year, the market has responded to the tightening policy ahead of time. Last Tuesday and Wednesday, the A share market changed a lot last week, and even the two day after the release of the "semi annual report" on Thursday, it is still in a weak shock.

In fact, international crude oil prices this week set a record of a three week drop of 11% in a single week.

Under this influence, the decline of A shares has not changed, indicating that the market is very scary about inflation pressure.

Economic downturn worries about slowing down

"Enterprise profits shrink by more than 90%."

Wen Jiabao, the Propaganda Department of the first cotton mill in Wuxi, has described the difficulties they encountered in the first half of the year.

Mao Xiahua, director of the Ministry of trade and management of Shanghai Pegasus import and export company, also told reporters: "RMB appreciation and export tax rebate reduction and so on, any factor may cause enterprises to go bankrupt."

Consistent with the voices from the public, Zhao Xiao, Professor of economics and management at University of Science and Technology Beijing, concluded that "because of the decline in exports, this year's economic growth will slow down by at least 2.7 percentage points, which is already less than 9%."

For a while, the announcement of the "semi annual report" and the second half of the central economic regulation were held on the eve of the meeting.

Based on this, the relaxation of the policy of regulation and control is heard one after another.

On the 17 day, the latest macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that economic growth has indeed dropped. But Li Xiaochao, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, was quite optimistic when answering reporters' questions at the press conference.

Li Xiaochao believes that the current economic growth rate falls in line with the macroeconomic regulation and control expectation of "preventing economic growth from becoming overheated".

At the same time, the one or two quarter dropped 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from the previous quarter, and the situation is mild. Moreover, the current economic growth rate is still relatively fast.

"The fundamentals of China's economic situation will not be too big in the second half of the year."

Jia Kang, director of the Fiscal Science Research Institute of the Ministry of finance, said that China's economy is experiencing a gradual decline process, which is one of the goals of the central macroeconomic regulation and control policy to achieve sound and fast goals.

In fact, the reporter interviewed found that even the fixed investment large real estate industry shouted cold, its development momentum is still strong.

Ministry of land and resources recent research report shows that the first half of the national land price still has a relatively large increase.

In June, the sales price of 70 cities still increased by 8.2% over the same period last year.

Prevent inflation from ending

Compared with the slowdown in economic growth, the contradiction between inflation is more obvious.

Semi annual report shows that CPI rose 7.1% in June, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, but the increase in CPI 7.9% in the first half of the year is still far from the 4.8% year target.

Moreover, as a leading index of prices, PPI runs faster.

In the first half of the year, the ex factory prices of manufactured goods rose by 7.6% over the same period last year, up 8.8% in June.

Zhu Baoliang is worried that the upward pressure on upstream product prices is increasing and the inflationary pressure is still breathless.

"The price of resource products will definitely increase in the second half of the year, because no price adjustment does not conform to the laws of the market, which will result in a shortage of supply."

Ma Qing, Beijing's economic consulting analyst, said.

In fact, after the oil price and electricity price were raised in June, the price index rebounded in July, which is hard to avoid.

In this regard, Li Xiaochao believes that inflation test is still grim, the second half of the year to strictly guard against price factors.

He believes that the overall environment of international price rise will have a substantial impact on China, and the pmission factor of producer price will become more and more obvious.

At the same time, according to preliminary estimates, the price rise factor in the second half of the year will affect CPI by 1.8 percentage points.

Looking for a tight balance point

The dilemma of macroeconomic regulation is no longer a new topic. For the reasons for the current predicament, Bao Yujun, President of the Chinese people's (private) Research Association, even stressed the need to blame the central bank, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the securities and Futures Commission when interviewed by our newspaper.

Accountability is not an end. The key now is how to balance the contradictions in regulation.

"Now it is not only to seek a balance between inflation and economic growth, but also to adjust the export structure, so as to strike a balance between the three."

Liu Shangxi, deputy director of the Financial Science Research Institute of the Ministry of finance, said.

Zhang Wenkui, deputy director of the Enterprise Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, explained in an interview with our reporter: "from a macro level, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are closed down, shut down and closed down, which will bring pressure on employment, and the situation of blue collar workers from shortage to excess."

Li Xiaochao made a statement at the conference: the next step is to maintain the stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies.

Market speculation, regulatory policies continue to be tight, but will adjust the future economic growth.

"The primary objective should be to achieve an appropriate balance between growth and price pressures as far as possible."

A few days ago, Xia Bin, director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, made clear in a speech at a forum that tight monetary policy can not be changed, and markets and enterprises should not have illusions about monetary policy easing.

The 15 word policy proposals put forward by Xia Bin are: tight money, stable exchange rate, price adjustment, loose finance and the poor.