The Prospect Of Export Rebound In July Is Still Uncertain.

When people are worried about China's export situation this year, the July statistics are very clear.

However, experts believe that it is too early to say that export growth will go up again.

The General Administration of Customs announced yesterday that the total value of China's imports and exports was 248 billion 70 million US dollars in July, an increase of 29.8% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports amounted to 136 billion 680 million US dollars, an increase of 26.9%.

The monthly surplus of $25 billion 280 million was the highest monthly surplus this year.

Prior to June, export growth dropped from 28.1% in May to 17.2%.

Sherman Chan, an economist at Moodie investors service, said yesterday in an e-mail interview with "First Financial Daily": "strong trade data in July show that China's trade prospects are not as pessimistic as those in June."

However, China's export prospects are also uncertain, because at present, Europe and the United States face obvious economic slowdown, which makes external demand weakened.

Customs data show that in the first 7 months, the EU is China's largest trading partner, China's trade surplus of US $86 billion 940 million, an increase of 24.9%, an increase of 29 percentage points. During the same period, the United States was the second largest trading partner of China, China's trade surplus of US $91 billion 670 million, an increase of 3.8%, an increase of 15 percentage points.

Li Jian, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce and Trade Research of China's foreign trade research department, said in an interview with Xinhua news agency, "the fluctuation of individual monthly data is related to last year's base and some occasional factors. We should focus on long-term trends."

In fact, according to the data of the General Administration of customs, the performance of our exports in the first 7 months of the year was US $802 billion 910 million and increased by 22.6%, though the export growth rate slowed down by 6 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

In the first 7 months, clothing and accessories, footwear export growth has dropped, the former dropped by nearly 20 percentage points.

In July 31st, the state decided to raise the export tax rebate rate of some textiles and garments from August 1st, and textile and garment export enterprises generally welcomed this.

But the outside world believes that it is difficult to completely change the situation of the industry's export obstruction.

Chen Yingjia believes that the July export figures do not mean that the Chinese government will change its policy direction for trade in the coming months.

In addition, due to the early signing of foreign trade orders, the bad external environment will also be reflected in China's export data later this year or even early next year.

In an interview with Xinhua news agency, Li Jian also said: "at present, China's foreign trade situation is generally good, although export growth has dropped, but it is in line with regulatory expectations.

The state attaches great importance to maintaining the steady growth of foreign trade. However, from the measures taken, the basic foreign trade policy will not be adjusted. "

Global Insight forecasts the financial times that China will overtake the US as the world's largest producer next year due to the rapid weakening of the US economy.

According to forecasts, China will account for 17% of the world's $11 trillion and 783 billion manufacturing value next year, while the United States will account for 16%.

According to economic historians, this will enable China to return to its position of about 1800 by about 1840.