The Export Rebate Rate Is Up, And The Advantages And Disadvantages Are Two Accordingly.
In terms of export supply, as the largest supplier of labor intensive products in the world, China's terms of trade tend to deteriorate at the present stage, and the export competition of labor-intensive products has become increasingly fierce internationally. In addition, the scale of production of such products has increased too fast, causing the prices of such commodities to decline year by year. Because export oriented enterprises are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region, some enterprises in recent years have experienced bankruptcies and bankruptcies.
These negative impacts on China's real economy. For the time being, it is necessary to adjust the fiscal policy appropriately to prevent the real economy from being affected by the sharp decline in exports. The export tax rebate rate adjustment to China's clothing and textile industry, toys, machinery and electrical industry and high value-added pharmaceutical industry to a certain degree of positive.
The US subprime financial crisis has seriously affected China's foreign trade export. China should seize this opportunity to adjust the export oriented strategy. We should appropriately reduce the dependence on foreign trade, expand domestic demand, make full use of the advantages of big countries, accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure, and avoid developing in the direction of long-term product dependent growth mode. We should abandon the single export oriented strategy, encourage and support the export of high value-added industries and products, and go to the large and medium-sized economy with internal and external demand equilibrium, and move towards the technology led economic growth mode.
Adjustment of export tax rebate rate and its background
The export tax rebate adjustment in October 21st involved a total of 3486 commodities, accounting for about 25.8% of the total number of goods in the customs tariff. It mainly includes two aspects: first, the export tax rebate rate of labour intensive commodities such as textiles, clothing and toys should be appropriately raised; and the two is to raise the export tax rebate rate of high technology and high added value commodities, such as anti AIDS drugs. Because domestic export enterprises are affected by many unfavorable factors, profits decline significantly. Since the beginning of this year, domestic inflation pressure has been greater, raw material prices have been more severe, and the pressure on labor costs has been relatively large, which has brought greater cost pressures to domestic enterprises. The appreciation of the renminbi has also brought greater export pressure to domestic export enterprises. At the same time, the global economy is on the verge of recession, and the shrinking market demand has also brought greater obstacles to China's exports. The biggest impact of these adverse factors is domestic labor intensive industries, such as the most representative textiles, clothing, toys and other enterprises.
The number of losses in textile, clothing and toy enterprises has been increasing. Quite a few enterprises have to close down and close down. According to the statistical results released by the small and medium enterprises Division of the national development and Reform Commission in early August, under the influence of the slowdown of the international economic situation and the adjustment of the domestic macro-control structure, a considerable part of the SMEs in 2008 were faced with the difficulties of breaking up the capital chain. In the first half of this year, about 1/10 of the small and medium-sized enterprises in the whole country grew at a rate of nearly 30%, representing a decrease of 15% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of this year, more than 6.7 small and medium-sized enterprises went bankrupt in the first half of the year. As a result of the labor intensive industry, the small and medium-sized enterprises in the textile industry had closed down more than more than 10 thousand, and 2/3 textile enterprises were facing restructuring.
Statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that the growth rate of exports of textiles, clothing and toys continued to decline from 1 to September this year. Among them, the growth rate of clothing and accessories, footwear and toys exports were the most significant, and the export growth rates in the first 9 months showed a significant decline. Data show that in 1-9 months, the growth rate of clothing and accessories exports increased by 21.2 percentage points, while the total growth rate of toy exports also reached 16.3 percentage points. At the same time, the profits of such enterprises have declined sharply. Data show that in the 1-8 months, the gross profit of textile industry increased by 12.69% year-on-year, 17.86 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. During the same period, the gross profit of textile, clothing, shoes and cap manufacturing increased by 10.10% compared with the same period last year, a 18.98 percentage point drop compared with the same period last year.
Since 2008, the export growth rate of our country has decreased considerably compared with the same period last year. The data in the first 9 months showed a decline of varying degrees compared with the same period last year, of which the export growth rate in September was 22.3%, down 4.8 percentage points from the same period last year. As the global financial crisis gradually spread to the real economy, the global economy will fall into recession. The shrinking market demand and the deterioration of China's terms of trade will make China's export growth continue to decline. In addition, from the new export orders index, the index rose slightly in August, but it is still less than 50% in the third months since July, compared with August. Overall, China's export growth is facing a rapid downside risk.
The downward trend of the global real economy has become clear. In the real economy, a large number of enterprises have lost a lot of profitability and financial pressure. As the Federal Reserve issued the announcement, "the latest economic data show that the pace of economic activity has slowed down in recent months, and the aggravation of financial market turbulence is likely to further suppress expenditure, partly because it will further reduce the ability of families and enterprises to obtain credit." Coupled with the continued fall in US house prices, this will have a negative effect on consumer spending and stock investment and will have a negative impact on the real economy. Because of the close relationship between the US economy and Europe and Asia, the slowdown of the US economy is being pmitted to non US regions, which will directly impede exports from Asia and Europe and thus impede global economic growth.
On the whole, in terms of export supply, China is the largest labor intensive product supplier in the world. China's terms of trade tend to deteriorate at this stage, and the export competition of labor-intensive products is becoming increasingly fierce internationally. In addition, the scale of production of such products has increased too fast, causing the prices of such commodities to decline year by year. Because export oriented enterprises are mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region, some enterprises in recent years have experienced bankruptcies and bankruptcies. These negative impacts on China's real economy.
Export oriented strategy still needs to be changed
With the deterioration of the US subprime mortgage crisis and the spread to the world, China's economy is also facing a rapid downside risk. Under this situation, the government's regulation goal has gradually changed from "one insurance one control" in the past to "ensuring growth". Under such a severe situation, the inflation pressure is expected to slow down. Therefore, preventing the rapid decline of China's economic growth has become the main objective of the current government's macroeconomic regulation and control.
The government has raised the export tax rebate rate for some of its labor-intensive small and medium-sized enterprises. Although our government is trying to change the export-oriented economic mode at the present stage, it has caused negative consequences. Many small and medium-sized enterprises in China (especially Guangdong and Zhejiang two provinces) have gone bankrupt and bankrupt. Although most of the down businesses are highly polluting, high energy consuming and labor-intensive enterprises, because of the fact that these enterprises absorb more labor force and have a wide range of employment, it is necessary to adjust their financial policies for the time being to help enterprises establish confidence and tide over difficulties and prevent the real economy from being affected by the sharp decline in exports. However, at the same time, the government raised the export tax rebates of some high technology and high added value commodities at the same time, in order to encourage industrial upgrading, change the past simple low value-added, simple processing products export, and try to guide enterprises to optimize the structure of export products and speed up the pace of industrial upgrading. From the perspective of sustainable economic growth, technological progress is a key element.
Overall, the export tax rebate rate adjustment to China's clothing and textile industry, toys, machinery and electrical industry and high value-added pharmaceutical industry to a certain degree of positive.
However, at this stage, when the US sub debt crisis has seriously affected China's foreign trade exports, our country should seize this opportunity, adjust the export oriented strategy in a timely manner, and turn pressure into motive force. We must recognize the basic fact that China has become a big trade and economic power. We should reduce domestic dependence by expanding the domestic demand, make full use of the advantages of big countries, accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure, and avoid developing towards the long-term product dependency growth mode. To abandon the single export oriented strategy, though it can maintain the export scale in the short term, we must promote the optimization of export commodity structure, encourage and support the export of high value-added industries and products, and go to the large country economy with internal and external demand equilibrium, and move towards the technology led economic growth mode.
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