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    2009 Analysis Of The Development Form Of Textile Industry

    2008/12/4 0:00:00 32

    The textile industry is a traditional industry related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. It must maintain a certain scale of investment and sustainable development, and it is also related to the overall situation of employment and social stability.

    In the face of the current situation, we believe that the downward trend of the textile industry will be maintained in 2009, the decline in exports will be more obvious, investment will weaken and the negative impact of pre tightening will be released. Domestic consumption will remain stable overall, and it is expected to achieve steady growth in the growth rate.

         

    The impact of domestic macroeconomic regulation and control policies

         

    Stabilize capital market expectations

    The Standing Committee of the State Council has ten measures to expand domestic demand and promote economic growth.

    These policies will help stabilize the expectations of the capital market and gradually eliminate panic in the stock market and the economy, and help to boost investor confidence.

    This is crucial to the expectations of the capital market.

         

    Tax reform, enterprise burden reduction 120 billion

    VAT reform has become a consensus among enterprises. At present, China has carried out pilot projects for the pformation of value-added tax in some parts of Northeast China.

    The full implementation of the VAT pformation will certainly be beneficial to the increase of business and profits, which can reduce the burden on enterprises in the short term, stimulate investment in the long run, and is good for the stock market.

         

    Increasing domestic demand and insufficient external demand to prevent a sharp decline in growth rate

    Fiscal policy has changed from "steady" to "positive". Monetary policy has shifted from "tight" to "moderately loose". This is to increase domestic demand and supplement external demand, so as to prevent a sharp decline in growth rate. In the next two years or so, about 4 trillion of the new arrangement of investment is most direct to the economy.

         

    Expanding investment and optimizing structure

    The positive fiscal policy is to make fiscal policy play an important role in starting economic growth and optimizing the economic structure by expanding fiscal expenditure.

         

    Increasing money supply and expanding credit scale

    This year's monetary policy has been flexibly prudently adjusted. After September, the central bank lowered interest rates for three times and reduced the deposit reserve ratio for the two time.

         

    Investment, consumption and consumption to promote growth

    From the ten measures, we can see that investment in infrastructure can create conditions for consumption, while increasing the income of urban and rural residents and increasing poverty alleviation and development are more direct measures to stimulate consumption.

         

    Impact of international economic and trade environment

    The global financial crisis indirectly affects China's economy. It may face the weakening of external demand, the aggravation of international market competition, the turbulence of international financial market and the negative impact of overseas investment losses.

    China's foreign trade, especially its exports, is not optimistic. The cumulative trade surplus in 1-9 months was US $180 billion 900 million, a decrease of 2.6% compared with the same period last year and a net decrease of US $4 billion 920 million.

    50% of the world economy comes from emerging economies such as China, India and Russia.

    Among them, Asian developing countries represented by China, India and Pakistan are becoming the main production and supply bases in the international textile market.

    ASEAN is still the main area of China's foreign trade, but the competition of export products will become increasingly cruel.

    This year, India's economic growth is expected to be 6%, 5.4% in Malaysia, 5.2% in Singapore, 6% in Philippines, and 5% in Thailand.

    Factors affecting textile industry

    Under the global financial crisis, there will be a global credit crisis.

    International market demand for textile and clothing imports will be significantly blocked.

    Editor: vivi

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