What Is The Trend Of Internal And External Troubles In The Domestic Cotton Market?
At present, the domestic cotton There are two main directions of consumption: one is downstream textile enterprises, the other is state reserve cotton warehouse. The price of storage and purchase is as high as 12600 yuan / ton, while the price of downstream textile enterprises is only 10300-10500 yuan / ton. The same grade, but the price is very different. Why is that so?
Policy to protect cotton farmers' interests and support countries cotton The reform of quality inspection system supports the 400 type cotton processing enterprises. The cotton processing enterprises of the 400 type baler used to feel the warmth of the national policy in this cold cotton city this year, while the 200 type cotton processing enterprises struggled on the life line. What will this bring to domestic cotton market with internal and external troubles? The author thinks:
1, at present, the price of seed cotton in each cotton area has generally reached 2.45-2.60 yuan / jin (the 200 type cotton enterprise is lower than the 400 type cotton enterprise purchasing 0.1 yuan / Jin). The state sets the price of storage and purchase at 12600 yuan / jin (level three), and the price of seed cotton is 2.80 yuan / Jin.
Obviously, the policy department hopes to raise the price of seed cotton to this price. Although there is still a certain gap between the expected value of cotton growers and the cotton farmers, it will be acceptable to all parties in the increasingly severe international and domestic situation.
But the price is obviously not up to expectations. Why? The main reason for the analysis is the acquisition of price imbalance. The 400 type cotton processing enterprise holds the sword of the Shang Fang, the profit space is very big, will certainly make the pot full of basin overflow. The 200 type cotton processing enterprises can't afford a price. cotton Only at a distance, in the competition can only linger. To quit or to stay is no longer a problem.
However, the days of the 400 type cotton processing enterprises are far from being imagined. The storage capacity of 1 million 220 thousand tons is less than that of their processing capacity. According to the author's understanding, according to the current scale of storage and purchase, more than 50% of the cotton bags into the market will undoubtedly increase the risk of enterprises, so that the 400 type cotton processing enterprises will not dare or have the ability to let go of their hands and feet. As a result, the trend of the cotton market in the later stage will directly depend on whether the state will collect or store additional quantities.
2. This time. financial crisis To the real economy of China, the textile and garment industry with export as the main way of growth has been sorrowful. The hope of increasing the purchase price of cotton by relying on international consumption has become a mirage. Our own problems are solved by ourselves. The government decision to expand domestic demand on large scale also gives us cotton hope.
But after all, it's a long way to go. 4 trillion of the investment plan is estimated to be effective until 2010. What can we do in front of us? One is to raise the export tax rebate rate. One rumor is to achieve 17%. This rumor has been confirmed both in official and in print. Although this can not fundamentally reverse the situation, it is obvious that the small scale will play a role. One is the RMB exchange rate. In recent days, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has continued to decline, and the expectation of RMB entering the depreciation channel has been increasing.
Since the beginning of this week, textile enterprises have constantly increased the price of cotton to factory prices, and some of the 200 type cotton processing enterprises that have already been delisted are eager to move. If the price of seed cotton stabilise under the good condition of the state's purchase and storage, then we will not be far away from the cotton market.
The flourishing of the cotton market not only represents the development of the 400 type processing enterprises, but still occupies more than half of the market of the 200 type cotton processing enterprises.
After this big shuffle, the 200 type cotton processing enterprises may have to say goodbye to us formally. Despite their discontent, lament and tears, they hope that it will go all the way and leave the last point of 2008 remaining.
Editor: vivi
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