How Long Will Shoe Companies Stay Warm?

It was also a "sunny day". I issued a warning that "winter is not far away" at an internal meeting of the company.

After the internal speech was disclosed by the media, it caused a great shock in the industry.

Now when it comes to the winter of economy, people will quote the verse of Shelley, a famous German poet: "winter is coming.

Will it be far? "

But when will spring bloom and all phenomena return to spring? How far is it from spring to us?

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Only by grasping the macro situation can we make a reasonable judgement of the economic trend in order to provide a scientific basis for enterprise decision making.

In China's economy and Zhejiang's economy, 2008 is the most difficult year.

The United States is the largest developed country in the world, and its economic and trade volume ranks first in the world.

It is precisely because of this important position that China's economy is inevitably affected by the financial crisis in the United States.

At the same time, as China's major export countries and regions are also deeply affected by the US financial crisis, economic growth and exports will continue to decline, to a certain extent, will inevitably lead to a decline in China's export growth and a relatively shrinking export economy.

According to statistics from relevant provincial departments, the loss of small enterprises increased by 50.3% in the 1-8 months of 2008, increasing by 8.4 percentage points compared with the first half of the year, and the losses of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises increased by 2.4 times, 1.5 times higher than that in the first half.

Data from relevant departments showed that in the first quarter, the first half of 2008 and the first three quarters of 2008, the GDP growth rate of Zhejiang fell by 2.8, 3.3 and 4.1 percentage points respectively.

The economic work conference held in December 25, 2008 revealed that the 2008 annual economic growth was about 10%.

This is the 1 largest downgrade adjustment of Zhejiang's economy in the past 10 years, and it is also an adjustment that has not been made since the new round of Zhejiang's economic growth cycle.

Since 1999, Zhejiang's economic growth has entered a stage of steady and rapid development. Especially since 2001, the international market demand has gradually replaced the domestic market demand. Zhejiang's economic development has ushered in the best period since the reform and opening up. In the past 8 years, the GDP growth rate has maintained an average annual growth rate of 11.6%, and the growth rate in 2003 and 2007 has reached 14.7%.

But I think the most fundamental reason is the "blind optimism" brought about by the long term economic prosperity. Because of the long term economic prosperity, many enterprises lack the sense of hardship and risk management. They are accustomed to thinking and acting in the period of rapid economic growth. All kinds of decisions are dominated by this "prosperous thinking" and have never experienced any economic recession.

Where is the root of the disease?

Only by finding ourselves missing and strengthening our health can we avoid repeating the same mistakes before we can withstand the market storm.

One is the bottleneck of governance; the two is the bottleneck of science and technology; the three is the bottleneck of talents; the four is the bottleneck of capital; and the five is the bottleneck of ideology.

In terms of scientific and technological innovation, most traditional industries belong to labor-intensive industries, and the development of regional concentration has led to the deterioration of competition among industries. Meanwhile, the lack of technological innovation has led to serious obstruction of traditional industries on the road of internationalization, and EU anti-dumping is a living case.

In terms of fund utilization, in the current economic crisis period, capital has become one of the biggest bottlenecks restricting the development of enterprises. Therefore, enhancing the profitability of enterprises and ensuring the smooth flow of capital is the core work to ensure the sustained and healthy development of enterprises.

The closure and collapse of shoe companies are due to the natural law, but more because they are difficult to resist the risk of macroeconomic situation.

In the past year, the cost pressure caused by many factors has made the small and medium-sized enterprises unable to breathe. As a typical labor-intensive enterprise, shoemaking enterprises are no exception.

First, the volume of exports has slowed down and the pace has slowed down.

The US financial crisis caused the foreign consumer market to shrink, the purchasing power decreased, and the foreign orders decreased compared with the previous ones. In 2006, the anti-dumping measures imposed by the European Union on China's footwear industry were also imposed 16.5% anti-dumping duties. At present, the "sunset review" stage has great restrictions on our expansion of exports. The current fluctuation of exchange rate has made Chinese leather shoes very weak price advantage become more and more vulnerable, which has an adverse impact on the export of our shoemaking enterprises, and has a larger exchange risk.

At present, the cost pressures faced by enterprises include: raw material cost, labor cost and store rental cost brought about by the implementation of the new labor contract law.

According to the relevant departments, due to various comprehensive factors, it is estimated that at least 15% of the profits of shoemaking enterprises, especially those of foreign trade shoes enterprises, are estimated.

I think it should be like the Xu San do in the TV series "soldier assault" - not abandoning, not giving up, facing with the positive and enterprising mentality, focusing on the overall situation, innovating the mentality, establishing the consciousness of "danger and opportunity", and grasping the opportunities in the crisis.

In response to Premier Wen's "confidence is more important than gold", AOKANG put forward the "sixteen words" development policy of "confidence first, development second, optimization third, pformation Fourth".

In the present, 3 negative arguments should be avoided.

Buffett, a stock god, said, "when others are afraid, I will be cautious. When others are cautious, I will be bold."

We should learn to grasp two opportunities: one is opportunities in prosperity, and the other is opportunities in adversity. Enterprises are in a good time and need to take advantage of the trend; while enterprises are in danger and organic in times of adversity, but as long as they seize the opportunity, they will turn the corner.

In terms of consumption, one of the key points to increase the level of consumption in the whole society in 2009 is to expand the rural consumption market and raise the level of farmers' consumption. At the same time, under the circumstances of economic adjustment and falling prices, the state may take more measures to stimulate consumption and encourage consumption upgrading. This is a good opportunity for shoe enterprises.

This round of financial crisis has changed the supply and demand of resources such as energy and mineral resources in the international market, coupled with the strong exchange rate of the US dollar, and the price of resources in the international market has plummeted.

This is a good way to reduce the cost of raw materials for shoe companies.