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09 Years Of Fabric Cotton Market Analysis

2009/3/4 0:00:00 179

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In the lower reaches of the industrial chain.

Cotton price

The trend is undoubtedly the focus of fabric enterprises.

After the "ups and downs" of 2008, the domestic cotton market entered a relatively stable and narrow concussion after the Spring Festival in 2009. Now it seems that the fabric enterprises can "breathe a sigh of relief".

However, in the "extraordinary period" where the global economy has not yet recovered, there are still many uncertainties in the trend of cotton prices this year. Therefore, fabric companies still need to tighten up.

cotton

This "nerve" can also solve the cost pressure of raw materials by enhancing the added value of products, developing blended fiber fabrics and enhancing brand effect.

Analyst: Aftermarket

Cotton price

Debate

Cotton prices were high in 2007, which allowed cotton growers to be more popular in 2008.

Cotton price

Higher expectations resulted in the expansion of cotton planting area in 2008.

However, cotton prices continued to go down in the second half of last year, coupled with the rising cost of cotton planting, and the cotton farmers' income decreased significantly, and there was also a deficit. Therefore, the cotton planting area of the major cotton producing areas decreased generally this year.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, the cotton planting area is 71 million 283 thousand and 200 mu this year, a decrease of 15 million 594 thousand and 100 mu compared with the previous year, with a drop of 17.95%.

Will the decrease of seed cotton area lead to the second half year?

Cotton price

Up?

Huang Junfei, a futures analyst at Yangtze River, believes that with the steady global economic situation, the revitalization of China's textile industry is expected to boost cotton demand, so spot cotton prices may rise to around 12600 yuan / ton in eight or nine this year.

Mainland futures analyst Xu Ting and Yang Zhen analyzed that in the first half of 2009, the global macroeconomic situation was basically determined, and the export of cotton yarn and cotton cloth would obviously slow down.

The average price of 48.70 months in the US cotton market and the keynote of the national easing policy will help textile enterprises to start a steady recovery and other factors. Cotton prices are likely to be bottomed out in the first quarter of 2009.

However, analysts also hold different views.

Du Ying, a researcher at Wanda futures Xinjiang business department, believes that cotton prices will not improve in the second half of this year.

First, huge inventory will weaken the impact of production cuts.

At present, China's state reserve stock is about 4 million 200 thousand tons, and in the past year, only about 1000000 tons of state reserve stocks were available.

When cotton prices rise, in order to make the cost of textile enterprises not too high, the state will sell cotton reserves, so the price rise is limited.

Two, because Europe and the United States are affected by the economic crisis, it is impossible for them to resume their former standards immediately.

The Great Wall Weiye futures analyst Zhou Jianrui also believes that the effective start of consumption is the key to determining cotton prices.

If the relevant national rescue policies can not be well coordinated with the introduction, cotton prices will inevitably enter a new downward cycle after purchasing and storing, rebate and interest rate cuts, and the downward trend of Cotton falling below 10000 yuan is not far away.

In addition, the fall in US cotton prices will also play a certain role in restricting domestic cotton prices.

Zhou Jianrui wrote that this round

Economic crisis

Since,

US cotton prices

The continued decline has fallen from the highest 93 cents to the recent 39 cents, down nearly 58%.

Judging from the recent trend of US cotton, the market is weak after the overfall and is likely to end up with the continued decline of crude oil and other commodities. Cotton prices will linger at 40 cents.

According to the calculation of 40 cents (the exchange rate is calculated by 6.85), the CIF price is 7000 yuan / ton.

Even if the tariff is levied at 5%, the price will be between 7300 yuan ~8700 yuan, and domestic cotton price is still above 10000 yuan. The relative advantages of the United States and cotton relative to the domestic cotton cost are obvious. This will inevitably make the domestic cotton accepted by the market at a more reasonable price.

Although analysts do not see eye to eye on cotton prices in the future market, last year's roller coaster cotton price pattern is hard to reproduce this year, which should be considered a good thing for fabric enterprises.

面料企業(yè)：越過成本“雷區(qū)”

In mid February, the China Cotton Textile Industry Association carried out research on three cotton textile related industrial clusters in four provinces of Jiangsu, Hubei, Zhejiang and Guangdong, including many cotton textile production enterprises.

Wang Keli, senior engineer of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, includes some jeans producers in Guangdong.

She told reporters that most of the fabric enterprises in Guangdong were directly buying yarn production. The current operating rate of these enterprises was maintained at around 70%~80%, and the order situation in March was more optimistic, and the order situation after April was still unclear.

And this research reflects more on cotton price problem, which is still difficult to solve the problem of high value-added tax deduction in cotton textile industry. Most of the enterprises that call such calls are cotton textile enterprises with cotton shopping demand in Jiangsu and Shandong.

At present, the input tax rate of cotton textile enterprises (general taxpayers) in China is 13%, while the product sales tax rate is 17%, and the difference between 4% tax and fees weakens the competitiveness of the enterprises.

According to Qin Zhenjun, member of the China Textile Engineering Society's cotton textile Specialized Committee and senior engineer of the professorship, the proportion of cotton raw materials in the pure cotton fabric such as denim and dyed fabric is about 70%, but if there is a good finishing process, its proportion can be reduced to 60%.

Some fabric enterprises have grasped the "10%" of the cost and successfully crossed the "minefield" of cotton cost.

As one of the top twelve denim industries in the world, Zibo Lanan group, Shandong, has continuously improved its yarn quality by introducing advanced equipment such as EFS optimized cotton blending system, Uster tester and slub yarn device, and adopted advanced dyeing processes such as automatic dyeing control and on-line monitoring.

On this basis, the enterprises also used the technology of the finishing technology of denim, which greatly improved the quality of denim products and increased the added value of denim by 4 yuan per meter.

As the ten largest textile dyed fabric industry in China, Jiangsu Lian FA textile Limited by Share Ltd has reduced the use of cotton and the development of high added value blended fiber fabrics as the primary task to deal with the crisis.

According to the staff, the natural wrinkle resistant fabric, cotton silk interwoven fabric and XLA elastic fabric developed by the company are selling well in the export market.

In January of this year, Shandong Huafang Limited by Share Ltd and the international cotton association of the United States signed the 2009 COTTON USA trademark licensing contract.

Cotton textile products of China Textile Co., Ltd. will be licensed to use the US cotton brand in the future. The superposition effect of this brand plus brand will make the pure cotton products of Huafang company have higher competitive advantages than ever before.

"Restrained" in cotton prices, but not "controlled" in cotton prices, which is perhaps the ultimate significance of enterprises to tighten cotton "nerves".

Editor in chief: Xu Qiyun