The Difficulty Of The Chemical Fiber Industry Is Not Optimistic.

In the absence of the global financial crisis and the uncertain trend of international economic development, in March 12th, the 2009 China Hangzhou chemical fiber forum, sponsored by Zhejiang Huarui Information Technology Co., Ltd. and China chemical fiber information network, is of great significance.

Zheng Zhiyi, President of China Chemical Fiber Association, director of PTA Futures Research Institute, Zhang Zhiyong, representative of Sinopec sales company, expert of domestic chemical fiber industry, and more than 400 representatives of upstream and downstream industry chain, gathered in Xiaoshan. The development trend of chemical fiber industry was analyzed in depth, and strategies for coping with the crisis were discussed, making a prelude to the deep pformation of Chinese chemical fiber industry in the future.

　　目前形勢：難度增加不容樂觀

Experts and business representatives at the conference held that the current textile situation is still not optimistic, both at home and abroad, whether macro or micro.

Zhang Youding, deputy director of Sinopec sales company, believes that at present, the economies of Europe and America and Asia are showing different degrees of recession. The second wave of financial tsunami is coming, and the impact of the financial crisis will be deeper and wider.

At the same time, trade protectionism has a noticeably upward trend. Crude oil prices will remain low in 2009.

He believes that the demand for chemical fiber domestic demand will remain stable this year, but the growth rate of foreign demand will decrease by about 10%. The output of polyester fiber will be increased by about 15 percentage points in 2008 compared with the same period in 2008. It is expected to decrease by about 15 percentage points in 2009 compared with that in 2008. The increase in polyester production in 2008 was 1.5%, an increase of 14 percentage points over the same period last year. It is expected to be basically flat in 2009 and 2008. In terms of polyester raw material supply, domestic stocks at the end of 2008 decreased by 900 thousand tons compared with the beginning of 2008 and fell to the lowest level in recent years. From the perspective of Asian supply and demand balance, the overcapacity of PTA increased further; the spread of the financial crisis led to a sharp decline in market prices, resulting in a loss of market prices, resulting in a decrease in production load.

Zhang Zhiyong, director of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, analyzed the economic situation of the United States and Europe and China's foreign trade situation, and expounded the trend of China's economy from the perspective of financial market.

He said that the cross use of monetary policy and fiscal policy will hopefully keep China's growth rate above the world average.

Wang Yongfeng, senior analyst at Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, pointed out that the current PTA futures price remained at 5700 yuan / ton on the basis of analyzing the value of PTA futures, resulting in a serious loss of most polyester raw material manufacturers and manufacturers.

Chemical fiber enterprises should make full use of the price discovery function of PTA futures, evade market risk function and investment tools function, so as to maintain stable profits.

Even in the case of loss, enterprises can also maintain their normal operation without losing customers.

Lin Zhenyong, deputy general manager of Sheng Hong chemical fiber company, believes that the new characteristics of the PX market are: the instability of supply caused by low oil demand and efficiency will normalize; because of the variable cost and market price, the start-up rate of PX device with MT as raw material is difficult to predict; PX price and crude oil price may be decoupled for a long time.

He said that although the PX market has entered a period of rapid expansion of capacity, the PX market is more complex and changeable.

Therefore, enterprises should pay attention to the start-up of the refinery plant and the difference between MX and PX, because in 2009, this may be the two most important factor that dominates the supply of PX market.

Lin Zhenyong also analyzed the new characteristics of the PTA market this year: the PTA plant will find the most favorable balance between the cost of raw materials and the expected price. Low load operation may become the normal business condition; anti-dumping is sway; the futures market will further expand and influence will increase; domestic PTA supply will still be tight, and imported goods will still have strong competitiveness; PTA producers' collusion relationship may be further strengthened.

He also reminded enterprises that the increase in the degree of localization of PTA does not necessarily bring down the expected overall cost. Appropriate distribution of procurement channels is conducive to controlling supply risks.

As for the polyester market, Lin Zhenyong believes that the polyester plant will not be able to achieve high load operation in 2009. Therefore, the decision makers of polyester enterprises should change their mindset and adjust the starting rate with the profit maximization mindset instead of supporting high load starting works.

The sluggish demand will be the biggest obstacle to the year-round market, and the decline in profits will make downstream factories more cautious when purchasing.

　　應對策略：深度調整行業自律

As for how to cope with the current crisis and the difficult situation, Zheng Zhiyi, President of the China Chemical Fiber Association, pointed out that 2009 was a year for the depth adjustment of the chemical fiber industry.

The world economy is adjusting, China's economy is adjusting, the textile industry is adjusting, and the chemical fiber industry is also adjusting.

In the face of these 4 adjustments, the industry's slogan is "maintaining stability and adjusting structure", that is, ensuring market price stability and adjusting product mix.

Can price reduction be promoted?

Zheng Zhiyi believes that practice has proved to be useless.

Only by starting from the source and starting from the price can we reduce the loss.

Zheng Zhiyi said, first of all, there must be confidence coming out of the crisis.

Secondly, we should pay attention to technological innovation and progress, especially the development and application of high technology.

The focus of this year's industry adjustment is to eliminate backward and develop advanced products and truly upgrade the quality of the chemical fiber industry.

Third, we must cultivate high-quality enterprises.

In 2008, 30 domestic chemical fiber enterprises with an annual output of more than 200 thousand tons, nearly 50% of the total capacity, including 2/3 in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces.

The technology and equipment industry system of these enterprises is perfect and has begun to take shape and level, and will form new market demand.

This year, the industry will cultivate 60 new businesses, specialized, new, sophisticated and special.

Finally, we should make the industry mature.

The more difficult times, the more critical moments, the more attention should be paid to industry self-discipline, the consensus of the industry and the challenge and competition.

Large enterprises should assume social responsibility at this time.

In addition, the industry association is establishing an early warning mechanism for the safe operation of chemical fiber industry through the government level, and resolutely overcoming the state of low price bidding and disorderly competition.

He urged enterprises to actively respond to crises and challenges and resolve the current outstanding contradictions in the chemical fiber industry.

Experts and business representatives of the conference urged the upstream and downstream enterprises of the chemical fiber industry to work closely together and tide over difficulties.

Despite various difficulties, the participants also saw the hope that China's economy will maintain steady growth and the domestic demand market will maintain a certain growth; the state proposes the textile industry adjustment and revitalization plan; the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar may be relatively stable; other major countries in the world have expanded the scale of the rescue market and adopted policies and measures to promote economic growth.

At the meeting, China chemical fiber information network analyzed the industrial chain and market operation of polyester, nylon, acrylic, spandex and viscose industries and prospected in 2009.

Editor in chief: Xu Qiyun