Export Tax Rebate Rate Rises To Boost Textile Industry
With the spread of the international economic crisis, consumption in the whole world has dropped sharply, and international trade has also declined. According to the IMF, Global trade will drop by 9% in 2009, the lowest since World War II. In response to the current crisis, the Executive Council of the State Council decided to raise the export tax rebate rate of textile products, which has played a certain role in boosting the performance of the textile industry.
Export tax rebates rose to 16%, lower than the previous 17% forecast. However, the export tax rebate policy itself is a measure of trade protection. Whether or not to raise the export tax rebate and the extent of the increase depends on China's trade policy. On the other hand, the export rebate rate is also facing international pressure. On the other hand, the pressure of domestic employment is increasing, and the government's need to protect labor intensive industries is also needed for the purpose of protecting exports. Third, protecting jobs and upgrading industries is a goal that can not be achieved simultaneously. If we want to upgrade industries, we must eliminate backward production capacity and promote technological upgrading. In fact, most textile and clothing SMEs are powerless to carry out technological pformation.
The expected effect of the up regulation may make some enterprises report better than market expectations. Some export sensitive enterprises may report better performance than market expectations. The main reason is that they have benefited from the increase in export tax rebates. Since last August, the export tax rebates have been raised by 5%. It is estimated that under the consideration of price changes, the net profit of the textile industry can be increased by 8 billion 950 million, and that of clothing and footwear will be 20 billion 520 million.
Export figures in February are still worrying. There has been a sharp decline in exports to the United States, Japan and the European Union. The two months before the Spring Festival factor still fell slightly. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in the first two months of the industry has also declined significantly. The PMI index shows that the main index of textile industry in 2009 and January still lingered, or even continued to explore, which is much lower than the average level of the 20 industries in the country.
In January, its composite index PMI, production index and new order index were 28%, 18.8% and 15.2%, respectively, which were lower than the national average 17-30 percentage points, and less than 20% from the new export orders index. Some market analysts believe that the worst time for export will be over in the coming months, but there is no obvious sign of recovery. In the first half of the year, export sensitive high beta stocks are trading opportunities.
Overseas textile and apparel stocks have recently rebounded to support the rebound in domestic export stocks. Since February, the S & P 500 apparel retail index has rebounded by 32%, the Japanese textile and apparel index has rebounded by 18.23%, the global apparel index has rebounded 22.9%, and the European apparel index has rebounded 25.79%. The rebound in overseas markets has also provided confidence and foundation for the recent rebound in export sensitive enterprises. It is suggested that investors should pay close attention to export sensitive enterprises.
Editor in chief: Xu Qiyun
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