What Is The Trend Of China'S Foreign Trade?

　　我國對外貿易在上個月出現了近年來罕見的逆差，深圳的情況又是如何呢？記者昨日從深圳海關獲悉，深圳今年3月份的整體貿易數據尚在統計分析中，將于近日公布。不過記者從海關方面證實，深圳口岸上月對東盟這一新興市場的出口值自去年3月以來首次出現下降，同時也是近半年來首次出現逆差，且高達6.4億美元的貿易逆差創造了2008年6月以來對東盟的單月逆差最高記錄。

Some experts say that Shenzhen has always been a big export trading city, and a trade deficit with emerging markets such as ASEAN is certainly not a good thing, but it is not necessarily an opportunity.

Because Shenzhen's high-tech industry is more developed than Southeast Asian countries, it may take the opportunity to abandon the practice of exporting large quantities of low-end products in the past, and to further open the ASEAN market with the advantage of high technology.

Data:

Deficit for the first time in nearly half a year

According to the statistics of Shenzhen customs, Shenzhen port's imports and exports to ASEAN in the month of March were 3 billion 340 million US dollars, an increase of 12.9% over the same period last year, and the increase was 17.3% lower than that of last month. Of them, imports from ASEAN amounted to 1 billion 990 million US dollars, up 30.3% over the same period last year, and exported 1 billion 350 million US dollars to ASEAN, down 5.6% from the same period last year.

This is the first time since March 2009 that the export of Shenzhen port to ASEAN has declined for the first time, and the deficit for the first time since October 2009, and the trade deficit of US $640 million has also created the highest monthly deficit since June 2008.

It is gratifying to note that the export trade between Shenzhen and ASEAN remained strong throughout the first quarter.

In the first 3 menstrual periods, Shenzhen port achieved a total import and export value of $9 billion 130 million for ASEAN trade, an increase of 26.4% over the same period last year.

Among them, imports from ASEAN amounted to 4 billion 830 million US dollars, an increase of 24.5% over the same period last year, and exports to ASEAN 4 billion 300 million US dollars, an increase of 28.5% over the same period last year.

In export commodities, exports of major traditional labor-intensive goods such as electrical appliances still maintain strong growth.

Among them, the import of electrical and electronic products was 1 billion 740 million US dollars, an increase of 53.8%, while the export of furniture and parts reached US $430 million, an increase of 52%. The export of garments and accessories reached US $270 million, an increase of 3.7%.

　    隱憂：

Transfer of labor advantage

According to Shenzhen customs trade experts, Shenzhen's export performance to ASEAN suddenly reversed in March, at least indicating the two hidden dangers of Shenzhen's trade with ASEAN.

On the one hand, the advantage of labor is shifting.

Since China and ASEAN are all developing countries, their industrial structure is convergent. After the formation of the free trade area, market competition for labor intensive industries will be possible.

According to Shenzhen customs estimates, the cost of labor in ASEAN countries is about $80 a year, and the labor cost in the next 3 years may increase to US $250~300. The cost advantage of ASEAN countries is obviously greater, which may, in turn, have a certain impact on China's labor-intensive industries.

Tariff preference or delay in implementation

On the other hand, many ASEAN countries have disputes over tariff preferences.

Shenzhen customs trade experts say that some ASEAN countries are worried about the impact of Chinese products coming into the market on their industries. Some trade associations even propose a motion to slow down the implementation of zero tariffs, which may delay the process of the free trade area.

　　問題：

　　出口東盟產品利潤過低

The export performance of Shenzhen in March was not ideal, which aroused certain repercussions in the business world.

MEG footwear industry has entered the ASEAN market since last year, but now it has encountered some difficulties. "The consumption power of the citizens in Southeast Asian countries is limited and the price is too low. Even if they can open the market, the profits will be relatively low."

According to Mr. Xu, director of MEG footwear industry, the shoes exported to ASEAN are generally up and down 2 US dollars per pair, and their profit margins are about 3%.

Cai Hancheng, President of the toy Limited company, is still optimistic. He thinks that the Middle East population in Southeast Asian countries is over 75 million, and many of them are overseas Chinese. They have a high degree of recognition of Hongkong culture, while Shenzhen can take advantage of Hongkong and focus on high-end consumer goods.

"At present, most of China's import and export companies are still in a simple trade mode in the ASEAN market, and have not yet reached the level of developing retail business locally. Under such circumstances, the difficulty of developing the market is not very high.

Expert:

Grasp the import and export policy and occupy the market.

Guo Shiping, director of the Institute of international finance, Shenzhen University, believes that the fall in Shenzhen's export to ASEAN is certainly not a good thing. However, from the trade data, there are some bright spots. "For example, the mechanical and electrical products occupy a leading position in the imported products, indicating that Shenzhen enterprises are also making use of the low labor force in Southeast Asian countries to reduce their production costs."

Guo Shi Ping suggested that Shenzhen enterprises should adopt two different strategies for ASEAN products on different products.

In the labor-intensive industries, "water fish farming", appropriately shrink the export of labor-intensive products, and use its cheaper labor force to create certain market demand in the country, and will export more high-quality products in Shenzhen in the future.

In the field of high-tech products, Shenzhen can now take advantage of its relative advantages and occupy the ASEAN market as soon as possible.