The Second Round Of Sino US Strategic And Economic Dialogue Is About To Start.

　　本輪對話有四項討論議題，即促進強勁的經濟復蘇和更加持續(xù)、平衡的經濟增長；促進互利共贏的貿易和投資；促進金融市場穩(wěn)定和改革以及推動國際金融體系改革。 

From 24 to 25 this month, the second round of Sino US strategic and Economic Dialogue (hereinafter referred to as "dialogue") will be held in Beijing.

After the first round of dialogue in July last year, significant changes have taken place in both China and the United States as well as the global economic and financial situation, and the two countries are facing new opportunities and challenges.

Under the new situation, how to grasp the key points of this round of dialogue?

Behind the open agenda, what are the real demands of the two sides?

Where is the most likely breakthrough for a win-win situation?

What rational expectations should people have on the top level dialogue mechanism between the one or two countries?

Chen Fengying, director of the World Economic Research Institute of the China Institute of modern international relations, said in an exclusive interview with our reporter on the 20 day ago that the biggest change in the background of the current round of dialogue is that China and the United States are now showing a more balanced "mutual need" relationship compared with a year ago. The significance of the high-level dialogue is to clarify and deepen this relationship, and establish a framework for solving specific problems in the future and promoting specific cooperation.

"The strategic and economic dialogue between China and the United States should be the highest level dialogue between China and the United States under the global framework. Its forward-looking and strategic decision determines whether the success or failure of dialogue lies not in short-term results, but in long-term cooperation and coordination."

Chen Fengying said.

"People should keep rational expectations in dialogue, for example, they can't expect the trade friction to disappear overnight."

However, she also believes that from the point of view of the current interests of the two countries and the way forward, this dialogue may have a beneficial impact on the cooperation between the two sides in the new energy field in the future.

Alternation of Chinese and American relations

Despite the fact that alternation of heat and cold has always been a characteristic of the cyclical performance of Sino US relations, the relationship between the two countries has gone from hot to cold and then mild in the past one year.

In the months after the first round of talks last year, Sino US relations were developing smoothly, especially in the common response to the international financial crisis. They made great contributions to the success of the G20 summit in Pittsburgh and the global economic recovery.

However, the situation changed after President Obama visited China in November last year.

Shen Dawei, an expert on Sino US relations at University of Washington (DavidShambaugh), delivered a speech on the upcoming dialogue in the Sino US Chamber of Commerce 20 days ago. He said that in the past 6 months, the relationship between the two countries has experienced a "cold winter" and a "warm spring" trip.

The so-called "severe winter" period, mainly from last November to the beginning of March this year, led to or reflected the deterioration of Sino US relations, including the tit for tat between the two camps of developed countries and developing countries at the Copenhagen climate conference, arms sales to the United States, Obama, Darai, the withdrawal of Google Corporation from the mainland, intensive trade frictions, and the pressure imposed by the US side on China's RMB exchange rate.

The so-called "warm spring" stage began in the early March when officials of the two countries approached each other, that is, the two sides agreed to take concerted steps to solve the existing problems.

After that, senior US officials visited China frequently. Chinese President Hu Jintao went to the United States to attend the nuclear security summit and met with Obama. After that, the two men made a fruitful one to one communication through telephone.

The relationship between the two countries has returned to a relatively stable state.

"Now, when we are in the summer of Beijing, we need to focus on whether the relationship between China and the United States will also usher in the summer."

Shen Dawei told reporters.

"Mutual needs" becomes the key word.

Recalling the first round of talks a year ago, when the global economy was not yet out of recession, the green shoots were looming, and the US, which threw a big stimulus plan, especially needed external financing to tide over the difficulties.

Therefore, to some extent, the United States at that time needed China to buy more treasury bonds, which made the United States have no time to consider other demands.

Today, the US economic recovery has been relatively stable, at least from the trough, and the European debt crisis has increased the attractiveness of US dollar assets, indirectly enhancing the ability of the US government to obtain external financing.

Chen Fengying believes that the result of this background change is that the two countries may seek more equal exchange of their needs in the current round of dialogue, and no longer exist the status difference of "who needs more".

In addition, Chen Fengying believes that domestic political pressure in the United States is also an important factor affecting the attitude of the US side.

In November this year, the mid-term elections were to be held in the United States, and the results of Obama and the Democratic Party's polls had been significantly lower than when they came to power.

In order to win more votes, the Obama administration is likely to maintain a relatively tough attitude towards China, including meeting Darai, arms sales to Taiwan, and pressing RMB appreciation.

This political trend may also be reflected in the dialogue. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the United States will make more demands on China in the current round of dialogue.

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See through the issue

On the 20 th of this month, Zhu Guangyao, Assistant Minister of finance, briefed the media on the four topics of discussion, namely, promoting strong economic recovery and more sustained and balanced economic growth, promoting mutually beneficial and win-win trade and investment, promoting financial market stability and reform, and promoting the reform of the international financial system.

Chen Fengying believes that these four topics fully demonstrate that the dialogue between the two countries is a dialogue under the global framework, not just a single one.

In the eventful period after this crisis, if the largest developing country and the largest developed country in the world can take the lead in coordinating their positions and winning a win-win situation, it will undoubtedly greatly improve the efficiency of problem solving.

For example, in macroeconomic policy coordination, worries about the security of US dollar assets that once existed on the Chinese side could be turned into a concern of the two countries concerned about the Western debt problem at the same time, that is, how to protect the security of the former creditor's rights and investors' interests in the process of reverse flow of capital from developing countries to developed countries. For example, on the issue of exchange rate, in the context of the European debt crisis leading to the collapse of the euro, the two sides may need to jump out of the frame of the RMB or US dollar, but discuss the exchange rate stability of all major currencies.

Of course, under every topic, the consultation between the two countries is more interesting, and there is no doubt that the two countries have different appeals for each other.

Shen Dawei believes that in this dialogue, the United States may be more concerned about six aspects: first, China wants more consumption; two, China hopes to help maintain global financial stability; three is to expand exports and investment in the US; four, China hopes to support the position of the United States in the reform of international financial institutions; five, it hopes China will further open its financial sector to foreign investment, and six is to enhance the pparency of the US business environment in China.

The Chinese side may also want to make progress in six areas: first, to recognize China's market economy status; two, to reduce discrimination against China's investment in the US; three, to cancel or reduce US high-tech export restrictions; four, to reduce trade sanctions against China; five, not to preach to China on the issue of RMB exchange rate and the global economic rebalancing; six is to ask the United States to focus on its domestic savings rate and to develop a sound fiscal policy.

It is noteworthy that in interviews with two experts, reporters found that their views coincide.

Chen Fengying believes that the biggest intention of this dialogue is to expand exports to China, especially to open up China's clean energy market and strengthen cooperation with China in new energy.

"In the short term, new energy is the most important and realistic breakthrough in implementing Obama's plan to double America's global exports in five years."

Chen Fengying said.

In fact, this is evident from the US business secretary Luo Jiahui's early appearance in China and frequent appearances to explain the prospect of Sino US cooperation in new energy cooperation.

Shen Dawei, who tried to guess the position of the Chinese side, told reporters that reducing the US high-tech export restrictions and barriers to technology pfer may also be China's biggest concern in this dialogue.

If China and the United States can reach agreement on this issue and take what they need, the US side can expand exports. China can save R & D costs, and will help to correct trade imbalance and solve environmental problems.