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May 25Th RMB Exchange Rate Changes &Nbsp; Export Textile Enterprises Still Live And Death Line Early.

2010/5/25 14:00:00 66

Over the past year, the voice of RMB appreciation has been heard.

Foreign exchange from China

paction

Data released by the center showed that in January 4, 2010, the euro was 9.7635 yuan against the RMB, and as of May 17th, 1 yuan to 6.8275 yuan, and 1 euros to 8.4279 yuan. Since the beginning of this year, the euro has depreciated 13.68% against the renminbi.

Along with the rapid decline of the euro, there are sterling and Swiss francs.

On the day of May 17th, the central parity of the pound against the RMB once again fell below the mark of 10 yuan, and 1 pounds to RMB 9.8596 yuan.

Since the central parity of the US dollar against the RMB has been basically stable since April 2010, the euro has also continued to "raise" the real effective exchange rate index.

According to the data released by the bank for International Settlements, the effective exchange rate index of the RMB in April was 116.14, up 0.4% from March.

Facing the slight change of several figures after the decimal point, the most important thing is the large number of export enterprises bosses in China.

Because for Electromechanical,

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clothing

Export oriented enterprises such as auto parts, toys and so on, and export

market

Closely related RMB exchange rate is probably "the last straw to overcome the camel".

Export to China

product

For example, electromechanical exports account for about 6 of China's total exports.

The research results of the import and Export Chamber of Commerce show that RMB appreciation will have a greater impact on the three types of enterprises.

The first thing to bear is the large package.

equipment

Enterprise.

Statistics show that if RMB appreciation is 1% in 2010, China will have a large package.

equipment

The export and engineering contracting enterprises will suffer losses of nearly 12 billion yuan RMB; the appreciation of RMB will be 2%, accounting for nearly 60% of the total export share of the country, and the mechanical and electrical industry with only 2%-3% profits will suffer a total loss.

For second types of enterprises, such as electrical appliances, electricians, general machinery and other superior industries, due to the large number of SMEs and excessive competition, the average net profit of the industry is between 3%-5%.

If the renminbi appreciates, most enterprises will be unable to bear it.

According to the static calculation results of the mechanical and electrical chamber of Commerce, if the RMB appreciated by 3%, the profits of the whole industry will be reduced by 30 billion US dollars.

And for shipbuilding, steel, electronic information and other vulnerable industries, the affordability of RMB appreciation is even more limited.

Reporters learned that, at present, the shipbuilding industry's profit margin is less than 5%, if the RMB appreciation, this may become a catalyst for some small and medium-sized shipbuilding enterprises to go bankrupt.

And more sensitive to exchange rates.

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Industry, if the export situation has not yet improved, the appreciation of the renminbi may be worse.

Because of our country

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clothing

Main objectives of exports

market

Currency devaluation momentum, China

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The export of enterprises is not a small impact.

According to China's customs statistics, China's two largest economies in the EU and Japan in January 2010

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clothing

Exports accounted for 23.58%he10.02% of China's global exports respectively, representing a decrease of 1.13 and 2.87 percentage points respectively over the same period last year.

People in the textile industry told reporters that the upward pressure on the consumption of overseas terminal still needs to wait and see. The pressure of RMB appreciation is increasing. The change of exchange rate not only means a direct reduction in the profits of export enterprises, but also affects the acceptance of orders.

At present, textile

clothing

The average net profit level of the industry is roughly 3%-4%. The profit margin of a slightly better company is 5%-6%. If the appreciation of RMB reaches 5 percentage points, it means that the loss of net profit of Enterprises above Designated Size will be more than 30 billion yuan, exceeding the limit that enterprises can bear.

At the same time, the depreciation of competitors' national currencies is also weakening the price advantage of China's textile exports.

Vietnam, for example, recently announced that the Vietnamese shield had depreciated again by 3.4%, which was the second devaluation after the Vietnam shield's depreciation of 5.4% in November 2009. In February 11, 2010,

In February 2010, the average exchange rate of RMB against the Vietnam shield increased by 6.63% over the same period last year.

Vietnam's Ministry of planning and investment data has also been confirmed, Vietnam textile in January 2010.

clothing

Exports grew by 3.9% over the same period last year.

However, reporter investigation has learned that RMB appreciation will not bring pressure to export enterprises.

Dr. Mao Risheng, an Economic Development Research Institute of the world economic and Political Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China Daily News that for a company with low dependence on exports and stronger dependence on imports of raw materials, a moderate appreciation of the renminbi can reduce costs.

"From the current actual situation, the core components of the machinery industry, especially the construction machinery, basically come from imports, and this part of the core components occupy a great part of the cost.

If the appreciation of the renminbi, to a large extent, can save the cost of purchasing raw materials, thereby increasing profits.

Liu Wei, an analyst with Jinyuan securities machinery industry, also said in an interview with the China national economic news reporter.

According to CICC estimates, if RMB appreciation is 5%, oil processing and natural gas production industry, metalworking industry, pportation and pportation

equipment

The cost of the metal mining industry decreased by 2%, 1.3% and 1% respectively.

For automobile companies, the reduction of the cost of imported parts will directly reduce vehicle production costs or increase the pace of global procurement.

An aviation analyst who did not want to be named told China's "China made news" that industries like the airline industry, which have large external debts, will also benefit from the appreciation of the renminbi.

According to the Research Report of CICC, if the RMB appreciated by 1 percentage points, Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines increased their earnings per share by 0.02 yuan, 0.04 yuan and 0.03 yuan in 2010 respectively.