The Price Fluctuation Of The Retail Market Will Be More Intense In The Second Half Of 2010.

　　與去年金融風暴時相比，今年上半年的零售市場已出現明顯的回暖，不再是盲目地一味打折，消費者購物欲望和消費信心指數也有明顯上升。

From this year's Spring Festival, the "May Day" holiday and other nodes of the data, the growth of retail consumption is very obvious.

Unlike previous years, the sale of seasonal goods has been quite abnormal this year due to the impact of climate anomalies, which has made retailers unprepared.

At the same time, many factors of circulation make the price of fresh products fluctuate frequently.

Online shopping and other new consumption patterns also impact traditional retail businesses.

The industry expects that in the second half of the year, the price fluctuation in the retail market will be more intense, and the competition between the state-owned capital retailers and foreign retailers will also intensify.

Gradual recovery of the market

"It is obvious that in the first half of this year, the retail market has been warmer, mainly because last year was greatly affected by the financial turmoil, and consumer confidence has increased this year, and the unit price and per capita consumption capacity have also increased a lot."

After the merger of Lianhua and Hualian, Hua Guoping, general manager of the former Bailian supermarket business department, general manager of Lianhua supermarket, told reporters.

Hua Guoping's feeling is also the feeling of many retailers nowadays. Reporters interviewed many retailers, such as Parkson, Pacific, Ma Sha, WAL-MART, Huarun, and so on.

Especially after the Shanghai World Expo held in May this year, the Expo concession commodities accelerated the performance of some retailers.

According to the statistics of the May 1 holiday of the Shanghai Municipal Commerce Commission, the more than 4000 business outlets of the 480 large and medium-sized commercial enterprises in the city realized 5 yuan of business income for 4 billion 131 million days, an increase of 22.1% over the previous year. Compared with the golden week of the Spring Festival this year, the growth rate increased by 6.8 percentage points; compared with last year's May Day (14.2%), the growth rate increased by 7.9 percentage points.

This year, the sales scale of May Day has reached a record high since the implementation of the festival statistical system in 1999. Sales growth has reached a record high since 2005. The average daily sales volume reached 826 million yuan, which was 4.94 times higher than that of the "51" average daily sales volume (139 million yuan) in 2000.

World Expo has also injected vitality into the retail industry.

Bailian, WAL-MART, 7-11, bu bee lotus, Metro and so on set up franchised stores directly outside the park, set up Expo product special zones, jointly handle external agents, and act as enterprise suppliers in the park to occupy the world's retail market.

According to statistics, the Expo franchise products in May 1st will achieve a total retail sales of 7 million 760 thousand yuan a day, and the sales of licensed products will reach 7 million 720 thousand yuan in the whole park in May 2nd.

Besides Bailian supermarket, Lianhua supermarket, fast passenger convenience store and Bailian share outlets, Bailian Group also provides Expo ticket sales to Bailian E city and Lianhua electric business telephone platform.

Lianhua shares sold more than 1 billion 500 million yuan.

Many uncertainties

While the market is getting warmer, many uncertainties still exist, which will also affect the fluctuation of the retail market in the second half of the year.

"First of all, the climate factor. This spring is short. The clothing industry is most directly affected."

Mcglaughlin CEO Gu Gu Chun revealed that Mcglaughlin had many kinds of channels, such as network, store and mail order, and the product line was adjusted very quickly, so it was fairly stable. However, many of the clothing retailers of the same industry were hoarding hard to sell.

Pei Liang, Secretary General of the China Chain Store Association, said that after the financial turmoil, many businesses did not intend to sell significantly this year. Unfortunately, the abnormal climate change did affect seasonal products.

If there is still abnormal climate change in the future, some retailers may be frustrated in the second half of the year.

Therefore, enterprises need to develop a series of research on climate economics to prevent the sales impact caused by climate change.

"Other factors such as climate and circulation also cause fluctuations in fresh prices this year than in previous years, sometimes fluctuating up to 50%, which is not seen in previous years. This has great impact on supermarkets, and marketing and earnings are affected."

According to Hua Guoping analysis, price fluctuation is also related to inflation and so on. Therefore, it is expected that the price fluctuation in the second half of this year will exceed the first half of the year, and then we will see the intensity of macroeconomic regulation and control.

In addition, the impact of online shopping and foreign investment is the two largest shock in the second half of the retail market.

During the May 1st period, the online shopping festival was sold at 19 million 10 thousand yuan, up by 69.2% over the same period.

"Young people, who are the main consumers of the future, prefer online shopping, which is cheap and convenient. It is estimated that China's online shopping will account for 25% of the retail market in the future.

This will have an impact on traditional retail businesses. "

OC&C strategic consulting global management partner Michael K. Jary analysis.

At the same time, many local retail giants coincidentally raised concerns about the gradual "encroachment" of China's retail market by foreign investors. WAL-MART opened more than 50 stores in China last year, Lotte acquired time supermarket, Carrefour has recently repeatedly acquired the purchase of Bao Long warehouse, and the increase of agricultural super docking by foreign capital has also increased its bargaining power.

This worries local retailers that China's retail market will change in the future.