Who Is Listing The Sedan Chair For The Agricultural Bank &Nbsp; 6. 9 Stock Market Reversal Truth Survey

In June 9th, Limited by Share Ltd of the Agricultural Bank of China applied to the SFC for public issuance (IPO) and was approved.

This morning, the stock market was still up and down in the morning, but it was not warm. At around 13:40 p.m., the market suddenly started to exert momentum. The bank shares rose sharply, and the leading CITIC Bank closed up within 15 minutes.

The remaining bank stocks collectively followed suit, and the market index also turned upward. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index closed up 82 points, or 3%.

The general manager of a large state-owned commercial bank, which was interviewed by the China Times reporter, said that this may be the maintenance and stabilization of insurance funds and funds. Such a large amount of capital can act in a short time.

Li Daxiao, director of the British Securities Research Institute, also holds similar views. He believes that the first thing to do is to pull the Bank of CITIC Bank because of the small role of the bank, and it is almost impossible for the idle capital to mobilize billions of dollars at the same time.

As the ending of the reform of state-owned commercial banks, the success of Agricultural Bank's listing is the key, and all parties also carry out substantial "stability" for the Agricultural Bank's listing. The central bank has invested 325 billion yuan in the market for three consecutive weeks, and the Commission has approved the new development fund to be 40 billion yuan;

And this newspaper only learned that the central financial work conference will be held in the fourth quarter of this year. Before that, ABC must complete the listing work, which marks the completion of the reform of state-owned commercial banks.

CITIC Bank's logic of taking the lead

Some market participants interviewed by reporters think that in the afternoon of the Agricultural Bank of China, the stock market soared, apparently for the listing of the Agricultural Bank of China, which led to the frequent new low bank shares.

Is it accidental or inevitable? Is it a hot money or a stable capital?

As early as in May 7th, this newspaper has put forward the report that "the Bank of China listed on the market to push the gold market to stabilize the stock market". The issue of Agricultural Bank under the weak circumstances will push the national team to stabilize the stock market. After that, a lot of media have followed up. The Reuters even reported in June 9th that "Huijin entered the market", but no Huijin announcement was issued.

"Stability of the capital market entry is affirmative.

In addition, bank stocks are seriously underestimated and funds may be absorbed by the bargain. "

Li Daxiao thinks.

Why do we need to choose CITIC Bank? For one reason, CITIC Bank is smaller and easier to pull up than other banks. On the other hand, CITIC Bank has fewer real estate loans, accompanied by real estate and bank shares, which are purely manslaughter.

In the annual reports of listed banks, the China Times reporter found that the balance and proportion of real estate development loans decreased by CITIC Bank year by year. In 2009, loans for real estate development were only 37 billion 320 million yuan, 4 billion 681 million yuan less than the previous year, and real estate development loans accounted for only 3.5% of the total loans.

Even with personal housing mortgage loans, all housing related loans are only 151 billion 476 million yuan, accounting for 14.21% of all loans, and two indicators are among the lowest among listed banks.

Therefore, the impact of falling house prices on CITIC Bank is the smallest.

Some analysts said that CITIC Bank and real estate stocks, bank shares fell is unreasonable.

CICC, CITIC Securities, Bank of Communications International, Anxin securities, and other agencies have seen this point. In the investment report, they have suggested buying or increasing holdings of CITIC Bank stock.

In the first quarter of this year, CITIC Bank's operating income was 12 billion 182 million yuan, an increase of 37.6% over the same period, with a net profit of 4 billion 312 million yuan, an increase of 28.72% over the previous year, and a basic earnings per share of 0.11 yuan.

Cornerstone Investment: insurance and the most active Middle East

On the afternoon of June 8th, our correspondent met with Seven Group Holdings Ltd (CEO) Peter Holdings (Peter Gammell) in the head office of the Agricultural Bank of China. He had just finished talks with the executive director and deputy governor pan Gong Sheng of the bank responsible for stock reform and listing.

And with the end of the talks, Pan Gongsheng stepped to another conference room and convened another meeting. These days, Mr. Pan worked at full capacity every day to meet with Chinese and foreign investors. Because of lack of sleep, his eyes were covered with blood.

At present, ABC's IPO is the largest or second largest in the world.

But Pan Gongsheng must have been involved in this super IPO. He worked as a secret agent of ICBC to participate in the A+H listing of ICBC, creating the largest IPO. so far.

Reporters learned that on the day before the visit to Gan Mei Er, ABC also received domestic insurance and fund institutional investors.

According to the selected investors, insurance companies and central enterprises are most interested in Agricultural Bank of China, and the newly issued funds will generally be allocated to ABC shares.

Specifically, many insurers such as China Life Insurance, PICC, Pacific Insurance and new China insurance are willing to become the cornerstone investors of ABC.

And PetroChina, state power, Huarun group and many other enterprises have explicitly proposed to participate in the Agricultural Bank's rationing.

It is reported that one of the main reasons why insurance funds enthusiastically buy ABC is the largest number of bank branches and customers in China. It is the largest retail bank in China, and insurance agencies want to expand the business of urban and rural areas with the help of ABC.

In the communication between Pan wins and Eurasian investors, Middle East investors are most willing to buy Agricultural Bank shares, so that agricultural bank is unable to provide enough stocks.

It is reported that the Investment Bureau of Qatar and Kuwait Investment Bureau will participate in the Agricultural Bank's placing, and the Abu Dhabi Investment Bureau of the United Arab Emirates lost its strategic investors' draft in 2006. This time, it hopes to get a slice of the IPO in the Agricultural Bank of China. Since 2009, the top executives of the organization have made six trips to Beijing Agricultural Bank headquarters to discuss investment and stock issues, and expressed their willingness to hold for a long time.

In addition, Singapore Government Investment Company and Temasek and Standard Chartered Bank will also participate in the Agricultural Bank's placing.

For Japanese funds, the joint venture fund of big sum securities has set up a pool of funds to participate in the strategic placement of the Agricultural Bank, which is about $1 billion.

In addition to these institutions, a large number of Hongkong Billionaires will also participate in the ABC placement.

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Media singing empty market to do more

It is worth noting that during the preparation period of the Agricultural Bank of China, some financial media showed more skepticism.

The more representative ones are the financial times and the Wall Street journal. They report irony on the Agricultural Bank's listing: China's worst bank has to carry out the world's largest IPO.

However, before the listing of CCB, Bank of China and industrial and Commercial Bank of China, these media also clamored for "technical bankruptcy of Chinese banking industry".

Facts have proved that, with ICBC, China Construction Bank and Bank of China listed as an example, the bad assets of these banks have not increased over the past four or five years, but on the contrary, they have been decreasing year by year. They have not requested the Asset Management Co to divest bad assets, the capital adequacy ratio has significantly improved, profits have steadily increased, and corporate governance has been significantly improved.

Even more valuable is that China's banking industry has saved China's economy when the financial crisis triggered by the Wall Street swept the globe.

At the same time, the big banks in the West are not bankrupt or are invested by the government.

To let ABC feel that it is regrettable that some domestic media have joined in the abuses of Agricultural Bank of China, and raised the statement that the Agricultural Bank could not sell more than 2.5 yuan, and the lowest price was 2 yuan, and so on. More words were called "the Ministry of Finance and Huijin Company proposed to postpone the listing". No wonder Pan Gongsheng denounced the media for "talking nonsense".

ABC, after undergoing a similar share reform and listing with the other three major banks, will also get the same achievements of these banks. A general manager of CCB told our reporter that "today is the Bank of China's tomorrow. China's banking industry is homogenized, and the exchange of executives is frequent. Eventually, it will make common progress. The agricultural support potential of ABC is still great. The rural area is the advantage of the Agricultural Bank, rather than the burden, and our construction bank is also moving towards the countryside."

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ABC's listed stocks are fantasies.

Although not yet listed, ABC has become a hot spot in the A share market.

From last weekend, the A date of the ABC A shares was clear, and its approval was approved on Wednesday.

The release of every news has triggered the volatility of the A share market.

After the opening of the market on Wednesday afternoon, banking stocks suddenly pulled up. However, according to the billboard data, some institutions have taken advantage of the opportunity of the bank stocks to rise and fled the banks.

This rapid rally should be interpreted as a typical event driven trading opportunity.

The valuation is only one of the conditions for judging whether the banking sector is bottoming out. More importantly, it depends on the profit cycle of the banking sector, which is the key to the analysis of the problem.

At present, the profit cycle of banks has entered the downward range, which will be accompanied by the systematic shift of bank valuation.

Recent changes in weight stocks can be more understood as the action of the guard.

After all, it is a matter of management for the bank to stabilize its listing in a weak pattern.

This week, small and medium sized boards and GEM stocks become a rare bright spot in the weak market.

The gem index has increased by more than 10% since its release in June 1st, and the trend of the two main board index has been eclipsed.

Data show that the average net asset yield of gem in the first quarter of 2010 was 5.28%, the average net asset yield of small and medium sized boards was 2.34%, while the overall A share's average return on assets was 2.12%.

The overall profitability of small and medium sized boards and gem is at the forefront of A shares.

In the first half of this year, under the support of industrial policies and downstream demand, the performance of emerging industry stocks is expected to continue to grow rapidly. The semi annual report is expected to become a new multi energy energy spring for small cap stocks, especially those with annual stock dividend in 2009. In the half year of 2010, good performance is expected to become a strong kinetic energy for such stocks.

The right to fill shares has become the excitement of the market.

Despite the fact that there has been no marked improvement in the tight market funds, the fund has plenty of ammunition from the fund's position.

According to the statistics of the relevant institutions, the partial stock fund position is near 75%.

Considering the issuance of 29 index funds last year, excluding the high position of index funds, the partial stock fund position is close to the low level in 2008.

The flow of fund funds has great guiding significance.

In the market's uncertainty about the economy and the pessimism of the growth of the company, the real high growth stocks will become a scarce market and be sought after by the capital.

As the largest and fastest growing emerging market in the world, the biggest attraction of China's stock market is growth investment.

The historical experience of the A share market shows that investment in the national industrial policy has always been the secret of winning the capital gains.

From the average system, the index has officially shifted to the standard big gap.

The basic operational pattern of the market in the long term will be oversold rebound - complex adjustment - overshoot and rebound.

The way to bottom is patience.

The opportunity of long-term adjustment cycle is to buy the listed companies in the rapidly developing industry at a lower price.

In fact, any major adjustment is the process of nurturing a new generation of big bull stocks, which is the most attractive part of bear market.