China'S Future Industrial Upgrading In June 13Th Will Depend More On Domestic Demand And Early Warning.

Industrial upgrading in the future will rely more on domestic demand.

China's industrial upgrading is a long-term trend and can not be completed overnight.

On the one hand, industrial upgrading is driven by scientific and technological progress and social development. On the other hand, it is driven by demand.

Before the financial crisis, China's high-tech industries accounted for a relatively large proportion of foreign-funded enterprises, indicating that China's industrial upgrading in the past 30 years was partly driven by external demand.

In export-oriented export-oriented provinces and cities, the value added of new and high-tech industries accounts for a higher proportion of GDP, and some even reach 30%-40%. For example, Shenzhen's export volume is equivalent to that of a country in India, and its high and new industrial added value also accounts for 35% of GDP.

The proportion of high-tech industries is lower than that of non export-oriented provinces and municipalities.

As the world's factory, China's largest export product is mechanical and electrical products. The overall export products are mainly low-end, high-end products are not many, and some high-end products processed in China are also considered as high-tech products.

After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the decline in external demand led to a slowdown in China's industrial upgrading.

Taking the 2009 as the boundary, China's economy has undergone a pformation. The main reason for the upgrading of China's industry is external demand. After 2009, domestic demand will become the leading force of industrial upgrading.

In addition, China's consumption demand is also undergoing structural changes. The proportion of the population at the age of 25-35 will increase in the future, and their demand for quality of life will have a larger demand for consumption upgrading, thereby boosting industrial upgrading.

In addition to the demand pull, the industrial policies of the state will also promote industrial upgrading, such as the support and preferential policies for the high and new technology, new energy and new material industries, as well as the restrictions on some industries with high energy consumption, high pollution and overcapacity.

These measures have a certain effect, but the role of the government is limited, and the main driving force lies in demand.

If the government's administrative intervention in industrial policy is too much, it will actually not help industrial upgrading.

Industrial upgrading should be carried out in a market-oriented way.

To eliminate backward production capacity and achieve industrial upgrading, the key lies in expanding domestic demand, increasing residents' income, improving the quality of life of residents, and achieving the goal of industrial upgrading from the perspective of meeting demand.

Since demand is the main force to boost industrial upgrading, the problem now lies in whether domestic demand is large enough to enhance industrial upgrading. This may not be apparent in the short term, but needs a relatively long period.

Now, some government places have taken more active measures, such as "cage changing birds". Although these measures can play some roles, the administrative intervention is too strong.

If you want to upgrade the cage after the cage is LEED out, the high-tech industry will not be in your cage, but the cage will become an empty cage.

How can we make the industry really able to settle in the local area? It is to pform the functions of the government from a strong government with a strong color to a service-oriented government. It is committed to narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor and raising the income level of the low income class, so that the whole domestic demand can be pulled up.

Supporting private economy to boost industrial upgrading

Although it is generally believed that the financial crisis is conducive to the adjustment of the industrial pattern, but after the financial crisis, the industrial structure of our country has not changed.

After the crisis, China adopted a large-scale investment measure of "four trillion" in order to stimulate economic growth and achieve "eight guarantees". Most of these investments were based on the "iron public foundation" project, which required a lot of steel and cement.

Although high speed rail and other public investment also have the role of stimulating industrial upgrading, but more performance is to continue to enhance the proportion of heavy industry.

Of course, it is very reasonable to increase the proportion of heavy industry, because China is still in the stage of rapid urbanization, but it is too early to achieve the so-called post industrial era.

In the process of subprime mortgage crisis, many backward production capacity is to be eliminated, but the stimulus policy has saved them, but has increased the pace of development of traditional industries.

Therefore, China's industrial upgrading is not a process of rapid realization, but rather a twists and turns.

After the financial crisis, export-oriented enterprises, especially manufacturing and processing enterprises, were driven by the reduction of foreign orders and most of their export products with daily necessities. The driving force of technological upgrading was insufficient. They actually reduced the pace of industrial upgrading.

Because those export-oriented enterprises have to meet many foreign needs, including high technology products, such as mechanical and electrical products.

But after the crisis, the demand for alternative consumer goods has decreased. Our exports are all necessities, such as clothing, because these basic demand abroad still exist, so we can still maintain a certain volume of exports, while the orders for other products are greatly reduced.

Export-oriented enterprises have difficulty in upgrading their industries, but are faced with the fate of bankruptcy, stoppage and shutdown.

The development of private economy should be more practical.

The scale and proportion of the pfer of state-owned assets can be increased. The state-owned enterprises in general competitive industries can consider exiting. Some industries related to the national economy and the people's livelihood do not need 100% holdings of state capital.

A large number of private capital has nowhere to go, it will flow into the real estate sector, spawning the real estate bubble; and local governments borrow the real estate market hot, and through the auction of land, land finance is intensified, and the risk of the financial system is aggravated.

Now we should implement a new real estate policy and curb the excessive rise of housing prices. On the other hand, we can let private capital withdraw from real estate and invest in industrial investment.

The scale of private capital is very large. The key problem is to find good investment projects for them.

On the one hand, state-owned capital can withdraw from some highly monopolized industries, such as financial services, petroleum and petrochemical, telecommunications services. This not only gives private capital relatively good investment channels, but also helps break monopoly and introduce competition mechanism to promote the development of these industries.

On the other hand, only the implementation of the national retreat and the progress of the people, the support and encouragement of private enterprises will be put into place.

We should focus on developing service industry in the future.

From the industrial level, we should vigorously develop the service industry and increase the proportion of the third industry in the future.

From the perspective of the structure of the second industry, the upgrading of the second industry needs to be upgraded because of the high proportion of the traditional industries and the high energy consuming and polluting industries.

To make the whole industrial structure more rationalized, we need to create a better environment at the macro level, that is to improve social security, improve the welfare of residents, liberalize the household registration system, and improve the urbanization rate.

With the increase of urbanization rate, the demand for services will increase, and the development of service industry will also accelerate.

On the other hand, the service industry absorbs more people than the manufacturing industry. The same investment, the number of employment brought by the service industry is greater than that of the manufacturing industry, and the development of service industry can solve the employment problem more.

For regional economic policies, we tend to emphasize balanced development. I personally prefer unbalanced development, that is, focus on the development of certain types of regions and form clusters of development.

Because the characteristics of urban clusters or big cities are easy to form economies of scale and professional division of labor and absorb more jobs. Only in this way can the proportion of service industries in big cities be improved rapidly.

From the experience of developed countries, 80% of the population of the United States has occupied 25% of its residential area from 1900 to 17%. In East Asia, Tokyo accounts for 41% of Japan's national urban population, GDP accounts for 18% of Japan's total population, and is the first place in the world's total GDP. Seoul accounts for 25% of the total population of South Korea and 24% of GDP.

Therefore, compared with these developed countries, China's economic agglomeration and population concentration are relatively low, and the regional economic development is relatively scattered. For example, Shanghai, the largest city in the country, accounts for only 4.4% of GDP in the whole country.

Allowing more residents to concentrate on developed areas is conducive to improving the proportion of urban services and increasing the income of labourers. Compared with the development of infrastructure in underdeveloped areas, this mode of urbanization is more economical.

If we pursue urbanization in a broad sense in order to pursue balanced development of regional economy, on the one hand, efficiency will be low, on the other hand, it will lead to misallocation of resources and waste of resources.

Of course, in the process of promoting the development of urban clusters and big cities, the existing household registration system needs to be changed, and the gap between rural residents and urban residents in public services should be narrowed.