Who Is The Key? Continuous Disclosure Of Macro Data

Anticipation is beyond reason. The May macroeconomic data released by the authority of the National Bureau of statistics once again maintained a high degree of consistency with the "early disclosure version" released by foreign media.

"The data will be accurate." In the first time when foreign media disclosed the macro data, the industry speculated. Its credibility is so high that it is not the first "disclosure" of macro data, nor is it the first time that it is accurately "guessed".

The unprecedented coincidence of data released with many times and the official final release data, the threat to national economic and environmental security and the erosion of market fairness have led the National Bureau of statistics to "severely condemn" and "strictly investigate" more than once. However, again and again "history repeats itself", it is tempting to ask, "who betrayed our economic data?"

　 Data leakage channels wide

The 11 day of the month is the day when China's macroeconomic data are released centrally. The 10 day of the day is usually the time when the foreign trade data were released last month. However, there will always be "sensitive" media in advance to know these important figures.

In mid afternoon, Reuters June 8th reported that "China's exports increased by about 50% over the same period last year, reaching about US $130 billion in May." In June 9th, a series of China's macroeconomic data, including the May consumer price index rose by 3.1% and the industrial producer price index rose by 7.1%, were also disclosed by Reuters. Many market participants attributed the reversal of the A share market to that. The stock index rose 2.78% on the same day, nearly 70 points.

On June 10th and 11, a series of economic data released by the General Administration of customs and the National Bureau of statistics were in striking agreement with the Reuters version.

It is worth noting that the content of the Reuters manuscript shows that the news was disclosed by a Chinese government official in a key department at a meeting held on that day.

This is not the first time that China's core economic data have been leaked out in advance.

It is well documented that the GDP data released in the first half of July 16, 2009, as well as the growth rate of imports and exports and the total value of imports and exports in 2008 December, were previously disclosed by overseas media. There is no evidence that the accuracy of some domestic media in predicting data is also shocking.

For the media from where to first get the data, a central level official told the "daily economic news" reporter, two or three days before the official announcement of the economic data, the relevant ministries and committees will be closed exclusively to gather and analyze the data, and study and judge the macroeconomic situation in China. Even if they do not take the form of discussion together, for example, the General Administration of Customs will inform the relevant departments of foreign trade in advance that the relevant leaders will "look over".

Reporters learned that departments that need to "pass over" the data in advance include ministries and commissions of the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and commerce, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of finance. They also include scholars from the National Information Center, the Ministry of Finance and the development research center of the State Council.

In addition, meetings with government backgrounds or government officials are usually occasions where economic data may be leaked. Those people admitted that when they were asked by the media in public, they would sometimes ignore the date of data release. {page_break}

　 Expert: should "kill a warning hundred".

The early disclosure of national economic operation data is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, and it also affects the national economic security. It is easy to see from the sensitive reaction of the stock market that macroeconomic data have little impact on the capital market and even the whole economic activity. Not only is it part of the media, according to reporters, even brokerage firms threatened that they could get data every few days in advance, and wrote an analysis report to the customers accordingly.

On June 11th, at the regular press conference of the Bureau of statistics, Sheng Sheng Yun, a spokesperson, condemned the incident that the economic data were leaked earlier in May, and said that the statistics bureau is investigating the matter in accordance with relevant procedures. But in fact, this is not the first stern statement made by the National Bureau of statistics for divulging the macro data in advance. According to "daily economic news" reporter rough statistics, since July 2008, the National Bureau of statistics has 3 times issued a condemnation of data leakage.

As for the frequent leaks of economic data, Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that some institutions could benefit from the data obtained in advance, but "buying or selling" is an illegal profit making behavior.

Lu political commissar said that early disclosure of important economic data is not doubtable of fairness in marketization. He said that the official release of data is like opening the examination paper. In the United States and other data release links, all core data are disclosed to the media at the same time, and then reported by the media within a limited time. If the data are disclosed in advance, the asymmetry of information will inevitably affect the fair trade.

"What is more serious is that government departments have repeatedly indicated that they should pursue, but if they fail to get things done again and again, the credibility of the relevant departments will be reduced, and all kinds of" gossip "will be more in the market.

Reporters learned that the promulgation of economic data and the investigation of leaks is a matter of law. The twentieth provision of the rules for the implementation of statistical law stipulates that the data obtained by the state statistical institutions shall be released by the state statistical organs, and the data of the statistical survey conducted by the relevant departments of the State shall be promulgated by the relevant departments of the state. In addition, in April 29th this year, the fourteenth session of the Standing Committee of the eleven National People's Congress voted to adopt the revised "law of guarding state secrets". Sun Anmin, deputy director of the NPC Law Committee, told reporters that the "new secrecy law" has clearly identified the legal liability of leakage from 4 aspects, so that the investigation and disclosure of illegal acts can be followed and followed.