Is The Land Auction Cold Everywhere? Is The Bank Really Safe?

The increasing real estate regulation has gradually shown the effect.

In addition to the cold auction of land auctions and the sharp drop in the volume of commercial housing pactions, the paction price of second-hand housing has also been significantly loosened, and the sale of Yishoufang is no longer news.

As a result, the price of property that has been rising rapidly will now become more and more popular.

Some media reports said that some commercial banks made a stress test on the fall in housing prices. The result is optimistic: if property prices fall by 30%, there will be no problems with the quality of assets, and the scale of bad debts can be completely controlled.

On the surface, this is undoubtedly a good news. At least, it shows that the risk control ability of commercial banks has reached a relatively high level. At least in this unprecedented strict real estate regulation, it will not be broken bones. This is not only for the operation of the banking industry, but also for the stability of the whole economy.

However, in my opinion, whether these commercial banks' stress test results are really so optimistic is worth considering.

It is understood that the pressure test is mainly based on the proportion of mortgage loans and the price range of housing prices, combined with a certain coefficient adjustment.

Taking into account the proportion of domestic commercial housing mortgage is generally higher than 30%, and the housing price peak has passed, so it is true that as long as the price of housing falls within 30%, there will not be a large number of discharges in theory, and there will not be a lot of bad debts in bank mortgage.

But this is only for real estate loans.

In fact, don't say that house prices fall by 30%, even if they fall only 20%, it will naturally lead to a decline in real estate investment.

In this way, it is bound to impact the real estate related industries.

At the same time, after the sale of real estate is declining, it will bring corresponding influence to decoration, household appliances, furniture and other related industries.

The real estate industry chain is very long, and its output value occupies a large proportion in the national economy, so it is hard to imagine that after its recession, its upstream and downstream industries will still maintain a high degree of prosperity.

If the real estate related industry is in a downturn, the loans to banks will be difficult to avoid.

Historically, such a case is not lacking at all. In the previous real estate regulation, the impact of commercial banks is not yet vivid. At the moment, the control ability of commercial banks is a little higher than that of the past. However, the price drop of 30% will not be a problem, I am afraid it is not prudent, and it is also difficult to convince people.

In fact, the 2009 annual report issued by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has already elaborated on this, and the report expressed concern about the increase in property loans and the impact of the uncertainty of the real estate market on bank loans.

No commercial banks feel comfortable after stress tests.

It should be said that it is necessary to continue to regulate housing prices which are rising too fast. People can not deny their necessity because regulation may impact other industries, including banks. This is actually a problem of two evils intersect lightly.

However, under such circumstances, commercial banks threaten housing prices to fall by 30% without affecting the quality of assets. It is not only a little reckless, but also very puzzling motives: is it just a statement of a real situation? Or is it to support the depressed stock prices of banks, or to show support for real estate regulation? Or is it suggesting a certain limit of real estate prices? Besides, even if house prices fall by 30%, it will not bring much risk to commercial banks, but the shrinkage of social property is inevitable, and some people will inevitably become "negative Weng".

At the moment, banks who are struggling to pay their mortgage loans a few months ago, looking at the borrowers facing financial bankruptcy, have a high profile that they will not lose anything.

In a word, no matter from what angle, facing the current economic situation that is not easy, it is also aimed at the most sensitive housing price problem. It is not wise to claim that a fall of 30% will not bring risks to commercial banks.

In fact, with the high dependence of the Chinese economy on real estate and the high proportion of real estate loans in the scale of bank credit, commercial banks can never rest easy in the fall of housing prices.

Commercial banks should pay close attention to this problem and seriously assess what will happen to real estate and related industries if the price of housing is to drop by 30%. What changes will the whole macro-economic structure take place? What does it mean for itself? If we do not strengthen the risk research and management in this area, or even immerse in the illusory imagination of falling house prices and not affecting the quality of their assets, a little rational investor will be afraid to reduce the valuation of these bank stocks.