Is China'S Economy "Hot" Or "Cool"?

Recently, there was also the sound of economic austerity in the society. The main reasons for tightening views are: Housing sales are shrinking month by month; car production capacity is increasing, sales are falling month by month; steel production capacity is increasing, inventories are increasing, prices are falling, money is tightening, exports are increasing. benefit Decline and so on.

The author thinks that whether China's economy is really deflation can not be judged by only temporary data. The reason for the above situation is whether it is due to tightening policy or structural consolidation.

This year, in response to last year's stimulus package and loan scale, plus the trillion yuan loan volume this month, many people worry that overstimulation will cause asset bubbles and inflate inflation, so that the voice of asset inflation will come and go, calling for investment containment and tightening. monetary policy To suppress real estate. The government has also issued a series of stringent regulatory policies.

It is not surprising that the austerity measures are being reproduced in the wake of a series of stringent regulatory measures. For decades, China's economy has always been swaying in this "hot, cold and cold" and "loose and tight". I have repeatedly claimed that I am an optimist to the Chinese economy. In the past 20 years, I have always opposed the view and voice of China's overheated economy. At least in the next 10 to 15 years, the author still holds this view.

China is a big country, its economy is like a giant wheel, a huge row, not a car. Public opinion can not be shouted for a while, for a while, slow down. When there is trouble, we may lose our hands and turn over. China's economic problems must be observed from a long-term perspective before we can make a more accurate judgement so that we do not often have the phenomenon of hand and foot panic.

At present, there are two tendencies: developed countries are afraid of deflation, and emerging countries are afraid of inflation. In fact, the economies of developed countries and emerging countries are essentially different. The developed countries have already achieved industrialization and urbanization, and consumption is the driving force to boost the economy. While emerging economies like China, the main driving force for economic growth for a long time is investment rather than consumption, and only after a certain amount of investment has been pulled, will investment eventually be spanformed into consumption.

　　 financial crisis The haze has not yet completely dispersed, and whether the sovereign debt crisis has triggered a two dip in the world economy is still under discussion. China's economic train seems to have just come out of the trough and is gradually moving into the normal growth track. The government is still worried about inflation. The overheated economy seems to be far away from us.

In the past more than 10 years, the biggest problem of China's social economy is imbalance, which I have explained many times. The unbalanced expression is that less than 1% of people hold more than 40% of wealth, and less than 1% of cities use more than 30% of financial resources. Therefore, frequent local "overheating" will continue to show. Such appearances often confuse people's eyes and make many "economists" see no trees. Therefore, China's macroeconomic regulation and control must be focused on a long-term perspective, otherwise it will always lead to repetition. It is impossible to understand profoundly how big the market of China's economy is, and how many of them are still backward. I do not know that most of the people in China are very poor. They will only explain the Chinese economy with the situation of Japan and America. They will only focus their attention on bank loans and housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai to judge China's economy.