Risk: Efficiency Continued To Rise &Nbsp; Production Costs Rose Significantly.

Industry efficiency continued to rise and production costs increased significantly.

From the perspective of the growth of industry efficiency and the completion amount of fixed assets investment, the benefits of textile and garment industry are continuing to recover.

But prices of raw materials are running high, and cotton prices are still rising.

At present, 16 cities have raised the minimum wage standard, and the cost of domestic low-end labor has increased significantly and is a major trend, and the profit margins of enterprises will be squeezed.

The enterprises with scale and brand effect can pmit the cost pressure to consumers through continuous optimization of product structure and product price, and the impact of rising costs on performance is relatively small.

The domestic market will have broad prospects and export growth will become more moderate.

In the first 5 months of this year, the total retail sales of domestic consumer goods increased by 18.2% year-on-year, of which the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles in the above quota retail business increased by 24.87% year-on-year, and clothing consumption steadily recovered.

As CPI continues to rise and moderate inflation shows, we believe that domestic apparel retail will continue to maintain high growth.

In the long run, the domestic consumer market will have broad prospects for development in the future. The main driving force is the continuous improvement of the national income level, and the residents' consumption ability and consumption will continue to improve. Secondly, the urbanization process will bring more urban residents. Finally, the acceleration of economic development in the central and western regions will enhance the income level of the central and western regions, so as to enhance the consumption of local clothing.

In the first 5 months of this year, China's textile and apparel exports totaled US $70 billion 215 million, up 19.31% from the same period last year, of which textiles and clothing increased by 29.65% and 13.12% respectively.

The sharp improvement in export situation this year is mainly due to overseas demand for replenishment and low export data base last year.

At present, retail inventory sales in the US are still lower than those in the US, with more short-term orders and retailers still more cautious.

We believe that the export of textile and clothing will continue to grow in the second half of this year, but it will be lighter than the first half of the year. The annual growth is expected to be 10%-15%.

Investment strategy:

We continue to be optimistic about domestic brand retail enterprises. The second half is the peak season for home textiles, brand clothing (including outdoor products industry) and women's shoes, and maintain the whole industry's "buy" rating.

We believe that the brand recognition is high, the channel expansion is fast and the channel control power is strong.

According to the company's stock valuation and income elasticity, the company is inclined to choose medium low PEG value, high profitability and high income elasticity companies. It focuses on 30.52,0.06,0.20%, 23.00,0.50,2.22%, 52.05,0.38,0.74%, 42.75,0.52,1.23%, Pathfinder (22.230,0.23,1.05%), American bond (20.07, -0.83, -3.97%), Meng Jie home textiles (51.16,2.36,4.84%) and Saturday (14.70,0.30,2.08%).

For export-oriented textile enterprises, in the face of the strong appreciation pressure and the rising cost of the renminbi, we should pay attention to the leading industries such as Huafu color spinning and Rutai A (8.29,0.06,0.73%).

Risk warning:

RMB appreciation brings exchange rate risk, and domestic economic recovery slows down.