Shi Lifang: Can Long Shadow Pierce The Empty Space Skynet?

The big line in June 29th completely penetrated 2500 platforms, and since June 23rd, the market has been down by 7 trading days. Although the bottom of the market has picked up on Friday afternoon, the taste of "slow knife meat" has really kept investors still in a bad position.

So is the market going to be a bear or a Jew?

In July 1st, the China Federation of logistics and purchasing announced that in June, China's PMI was 53.9 for 52.1,5 months. After the sharp fall in May, the PMI index again dropped significantly, making the already unstable economic recovery a shadow.

The continuous decline of the PMI index reflects that the speed of economic growth is slowing down, and the pressure of the two macroeconomic inventory goes up.

As early as the end of May, there was a market analysis that the price of steel, automobiles and some chemical products coexisted with the increase in the price of finished products and the inventory of finished goods. The growth rate of GDP in the first quarter will be 11.9% this year. With the gradual decline of economic growth, these industries have the pressure to limit production capacity and inventory. After 2008, the economy is likely to enter the "out of stock" time again.

At present, this judgment has become a reality. From different media reports, investors can feel how to deal with "

The signal of economic slowdown has been relatively clear.

From the present

On the stock market level, the two increase in inventory pressure will be pmitted to the earnings growth of listed companies, leading to a decline in the valuation of listed companies, and thus leading to index bottom detection, which has been reflected in the recent market.

So even if the semi annual report to be published is in line with market expectations, due to worries about the future earnings of enterprises, it is expected that the market triggered by performance will not appear.

The Agricultural Bank of China will be listed in mid July, but there is no sign of slowing down or even ceasing in the issue of IPO and market refinancing.

The downward trend of M1 growth has been established, and the pressure on its return to a reasonable level can not be ignored. Historically, the correlation between M1 growth and A share valuation shows that under the tight monetary environment, the valuation level of the A share market will be significantly suppressed.

Therefore, a key factor in whether the latter market can turn around is whether there will be signs of loosening in monetary policy.

From a technical point of view, once the 2500 point platform running nearly 30 trading days is effectively broken down, the pressure can be imagined.

At present, some of the overvalued small cap stocks represented by the gem are facing greater callback pressure, and the large cap stocks with the margin of valuation can not get the support of the funds. The lack of market hot spots and the current lax mood of the stock market seem to be disadvantageous to all kinds of information, so the market after technological break-up will inevitably be dominated by disadvantaged.

In addition, the peripheral market is also constantly putting pressure on A shares.

Most of the recent economic data from leading economies in the US are not optimistic, which may lead investors to worry about the pace of economic recovery in the three quarter.

On the whole, the market will continue to trigger a rebound at a certain point, but no matter how big the rally is, even if there is a trend of "one Yang", investors may need to bite the teeth in the current overall environment.