Next Week's Stock Market Four Big Conjecture (7/3)

Conjecture 1: Test 2300 points of support?

Probability: 65%

Comment: at present A share market There is a typical characteristic of institutional capital adjustment, especially some small cap stocks, which appear in the forefront of the decline list, which means that the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities are currently in a dilemma of little incremental capital and a continuous sell-off. The squeeze trend of small cap stocks may bring new adjustment pressure to the A share market. At the same time, the real estate stocks on the weekend are facing the pressure of the decline in real estate sales data and other factors. Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities still have further adjustment trend, 2300 points or next week to face the test.

Conjecture two: second tier blue chips or a new tool to support the market?

Probability: 60%

Comments: for second tier blue chips, the current dynamic P / E ratio is mostly 20 times. Growth is also not weaker than small and medium sized boards, gem and other related varieties. On the one hand, their industry prospects are relatively optimistic, on the other hand, they have relatively prominent main business highlights, so the second line blue chips short term is expected to get the favor of the support fund, which can track Shaanxi drum power, China West power, China National Tourism and other stocks.

Conjecture three: Defensive thinking Guide Expressway shares active?

Probability: 65%

Comments: at present, highway shares achievement The growth rate has been increasing trend. Data show that in the first quarter of 2010, the total operating income of Expressway listed companies was 7 billion 330 million yuan, up 19.7% over the same period last year, while operating profit in the first quarter was 3 billion 670 million yuan, up 24.7% over the same period last year, which also showed an acceleration trend. Based on this, under the background of the continued decline of the market forced some of the funds to take defensive measures, the expressway shares appeared the trend of many kinetic energy undercurrents. We can actively track two types of Expressway shares, one is the extension of the expected expansion of the stocks, Shandong high-speed, five continents traffic and other stocks can be tracked; two, the diversified trend of the obvious stocks, Guangdong Expressway, Gan Yue high-speed is the case.

Conjecture four: real estate stocks rebound limited space?

Probability: 65%

Comments: Weekend property stocks have been relatively active trend, especially the Vanke A and other leading varieties rebounded sharply, thereby activating the bull to do more, and then make the market seems to have a bottom success. However, at present, the capital market does not support the continued rebound of real estate stocks with large market capitalization, and the rebound of real estate stocks is also not in line with the trend of industrial development. At present, the sales data of the real estate industry are sluggish. The superposition of these factors means that the rebound of the real estate stocks is limited and the operation should be cautious.