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Pay Attention To The New Policy Of Foreign Trade

2010/7/9 11:40:00 37

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Will exports continue to continue to exceed the expected growth in May or shrink significantly under the pressure of policy in June?

data

The differences have never been apparent this month.

For the expected growth rate of export growth this month, the securities business report has a high level of about 53%, while the low level is around 30%, with a floating rate of over 20%.

Foreign trade took the lead in June.

In June 19th, the central bank decided to further promote the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.

reform

After that, the yuan and the market price of RMB were higher than the US dollar.

Three days later, the Ministry of Finance announced that since July 15th, the export tax rebates of 406 tax code products, including some steel and non-ferrous metal building materials, have been abolished.

The impact of these policies on export enterprises is self-evident, but for June, the policy effect does not seem obvious.

One person

Steel trade

Enterprises said that the abolition of export tax rebate policy to enterprises have a certain time to prepare, which will enable enterprises to accelerate shipment and completion of orders in the near future, but in the short term will stimulate the completion of exports.

From the current indicators, generally speaking, PMI has a lag period of 2 months or so. The export of June largely depends on the new export orders index of PMI in 3 and April, while the number at that time remained high.

In April, PMI's new export orders index continued to pick up, with an index of 57.9%.

In addition, from the data of China's export container pportation market, the pport routes in North America, Europe and Mediterranean in the early and middle June entered the peak season of pport ahead of time, and the demand for pport increased considerably compared with that in May and remained at a high level.

Analysts generally believe that after June, exports will begin to really enter the track of "before and after".

One is the policy effect. The two is the superposition of labor costs, trade frictions, and the gradual emergence of the European debt crisis.

The PMI's export orders index in May showed signs of slowing down, while the June index continued.

slow down

Momentum.

Accordingly, Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of logistics and purchasing, predicted that export growth could decline from 6 and July.

People in the Ministry of Commerce believe that in the coming months, the negative effects of the European debt crisis on China's foreign trade may gradually emerge.

Huo Jianguo, director of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, also said that the export will fall in the second half of the year, and the speed of the four seasons is more obvious.

Another factor affecting foreign trade in the second half of this year is that the government will speed up the structural adjustment of foreign trade and the pformation of development mode.

In recent years, the Ministry of Commerce has intensified its research on various provinces, especially foreign trade provinces.

Moreover, policies on accelerating service outsourcing and supporting modern service industry are also frequently issued.

It is reported that in order to speed up the pformation of the foreign trade mode, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce the guiding opinions on accelerating the pformation of the foreign trade development mode this month, and it will be issued in the form of the general office of the State Council.