Sun Letter Securities: Overshoot Rebound Expectations Should Not Be Too High

After a round of overall decline, the pressure of capital and policy has been easing, pushing the market rebounded this week. Although the rally on Friday was stronger than most people expected, we believe that the nature of the rise is still a rebound. In the wake of popular sentiment, all sectors are expected to continue to rebound in the form of wheel movements. Investors should hold stocks temporarily, but they should not expect too much of the rebound.

Market rebound comes from Internal and external factors The resonance occurred. From the market perspective, the index fell below 2400 points in the process, heavyweight shares generally down the ladder, with the small cap and gem as the representative of the strong stocks is a sharp drop. From the external factors, the financial pressure of ABC has been reduced, the social security fund has been increased, and the short-term market funds have undergone subtle changes. On the policy side, the central bank emphasizes the moderate easing policy in the second half of the year, and the Shanghai third suite loan will be re opened. Credit currency Growth expectations have played a significant role in boosting market confidence.

However, we believe that the current rise should be more of a rebound. In the situation of internal investment driving economic growth and the deterioration of external trade environment, the trend of gradual decline in economic growth in the second half of this year has been determined. Whether the performance of listed companies will continue to decline will be the risk of future market. In addition, under the circumstances that the price of real estate is not obviously loosened and the price pressure is still large, it is not yet possible to change the monetary and credit policies. A stock market valuation structural bubble has not yet been fully released, the market does not have the basis for large-scale market.

At present, the market has dropped sharply for 3 consecutive months. Individual stock The downturn is heavy, and if the profit effect is gradually resumed, the market rebound will continue. The rebound will be completed in the form of rotation of all sectors. The index may be limited. Investors should grasp the rhythm and make profits at the right time.