Foreign Trade Reached Its Critical Point &Nbsp; Exports Or Slowed Down In The Second Half Of The Year.

In the second half of June, China's economic growth rate may expect a steady pullback.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, the total import and export volume of China's foreign trade reached 254 billion 770 million US dollars in June, of which the export volume reached US $137 billion 400 million, all of which broke the historical record of July 2008 and reached a record high.

Zheng Yuesheng, director of the Comprehensive Statistics Division of the Customs General Administration, said in an interview with CCTV that this marked the return of China's foreign trade to the level before the financial crisis.

CCTV stressed in the report that it was a year earlier than expected.

Strong export and surplus data in June continued the trend in May, but again caused many "peaked" concerns.

A number of agencies and experts said in an interview with reporters that the trend of foreign trade in the second half of the year is not optimistic.

They reminded enterprises to pay special attention to import and export data after August.

Customs data showed that in June, China exported 137 billion 400 million US dollars, an increase of 43.9%. After seasonally adjusted, the growth rate was 4.3%, which exceeded the expectations of most market participants.

At the same time, it imported 117 billion 370 million US dollars in June, an increase of 34.1%.

The surplus hit a new high in the current month, exceeding the $20 billion mark.

From 1 to June, China's trade surplus was 55 billion 300 million US dollars, down 42.5%.

Compared with the official trade surplus of the previous year, it has dropped to less than US $100 billion, and this data has basically met its expectations.

Huang Guohua, director of the statistical analysis Office of the General Administration of customs, also told the media that exports to the EU increased by 43.2% in June, 0.7 percentage points lower than the overall export growth rate. "The impact of the European debt crisis and the devaluation of the euro on China's exports has been apparent."

He said.

Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, told reporters that the European debt crisis and the devaluation of the euro occurred in the month of 5~6.

He thinks that foreign trade may be peaked in July, because the optimistic impact of the re stockmarket in the international market will gradually weaken in the second half of the year, and import and export should still be in the direction of "before and after".

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, pointed out that he is not sure whether foreign trade will see the peak this month or whether he will see the summit next month.

But it can be clear that exports before July were driven by previous orders, but the new ones after August were not satisfactory.

If the cost of raw materials and labor is increased, the pressure of foreign trade enterprises will be further increased.

"The cost of raw materials for textile enterprises has increased by 20% this year."

For example, he said.

Therefore, he believes that enterprises should pay close attention to the import and export situation after August and make full preparations.

PMI fell again in June, the new export orders index was 51.7%, down 2.1 percentage points from last month.

The index was flat in April and unchanged in March. Since May, the index has been slowing down for 2 months.

Two factors or enterprises' "grab export"

Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, believes that the two short-term factors that affect exports in June should not be overlooked.

The first is the export tax rebate policy, which enables enterprises to have a short-term "rush to export" impulse.

Taking steel as an example, the short-term volatility of exports is obvious.

Two, the expectation of RMB appreciation will enable enterprises to speed up the current export.

The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly announced the notice on canceling the export tax rebates for some commodities in June 22nd. Since July 15, 2010, the export tax rebates of 406 tax number commodities, including some steel and non-ferrous metal processing materials, have been cancelled.

In addition to the impact of these two short-term factors, Lu commissar is worried that there may be a "domestic demand atrophy" high surplus in the second half of this year.

He found that 4~6 showed stronger foreign trade, especially the favorable balance, which was largely due to the fact that exports were much higher than imports.

This month, when domestic production is slowing down, it seems inevitable that the growth rate of imports will decline.

He believes that if there is no new investment to stimulate the economy in the third quarter, it is very likely that there will be a decline in exports but a faster fall in imports.

"Overall, the annual trade surplus will be considerable.

It's just a "high domestic surplus".

But Zhang Yansheng believes that the renminbi will remain stable for a long time and fluctuate slightly.

The slowdown in imports was mainly due to the strong dollar, which inhibited the prices of primary products and machinery in the international market, rather than the slowdown in domestic demand.

Pulse the "watershed" of foreign trade

The three quarter?

Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said: the European debt crisis and the devaluation of the euro are all in the month of 5~6, and the effect of this factor on export orders will only appear after 3~6 months.

After August?

The first indicator PMI: in general, there is a lag period of 2 months or so. In that month, the new export orders index fell 2.1 percentage points, and has dropped since May.

After August?

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Societe Generale: exports before July were driven by previous orders, but the new ones after August were not satisfactory.

If we add more raw materials and labor costs, we will remind enterprises to pay attention to the import and export situation after August and make full preparations.