Reinhard: The Key Supporting Position Is Still 74 Cents.
New York cotton
- after a long weekend, cotton
market
It began to slack and soon fell to 74 US branching positions (10 year December contract) after opening.
However, so far, the closing price has not broken through this key support position.
Turnover is generally rare.
The trade community seems to be waiting for today's WASDE report, especially the scale of us output forecast.
Outlook ahead - the next trading day will tell us whether a new bottom has begun to take shape or whether the market is breathing a little before it starts to fall.
If the closing price does fall below 74 cents, it may stimulate more speculative selling.
Nevertheless, our market is still in the long-term upward trend.
The resistance level is mainly 77.70 cents, and the short line resistance is 79.00-79.30 cents.
The key support is still 74 cents, followed by 68.70 cents.
According to the underlying situation, market participants can show their attitude.
The actual situation of supply and demand in the near future
cotton
The gap between cotton and New York cotton is increasing.
The fundamentals (recent demand in textile mills) are contrary to the recent weakness in New York cotton.
China Zhengzhou commodity exchange and CNCE are still in a consolidation trend.
The market as a whole tends to be calm, the attention shifts to the macroeconomic situation, and the prospect of yarn and textile prices.
The textile factory is currently concentrating on importing cotton, whatever the variety, and the delivery date is before the end of December.
It is reported that India is doing new cotton business, though the export quota and tax situation are not clear.
There is no big news about China's new cotton.
Supplement:
1/ upland cotton and super long staple cotton; the market year begins in August 1st.
The sum of four houses and five inlets may be insufficient.
2/ is based on data from the census and Statistics Bureau of the United States.
3/ last year's volume minus total consumption and census statistics.
The difference in final inventory after Bureau statistics.
4/ cents / pound.
For June, the planting area was the "planting intention" in March 31st.
The estimated harvest area is based on the average annual abandonment area of 2000-2009 years and the weighted average of each area, based on the adjustment of the significant favorable soil conditions in Southwest China.
The estimated yield per harvest area is based on the average annual yield of 2005-2009 years and the weighted average area.
For July, the planting area was the "area report" in June 30th.
The estimated yield per mu and yield per acre were adjusted from June to date according to the favorable cotton growth in the southwest.
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