US Treasuries Or Hot Potatoes? One

In February 2006, China's total foreign exchange reserves totaled 853 billion 700 million US dollars, the first time to surpass Japan, ranking first in the world. After that, it maintained a rapid growth momentum. As of the end of 2010, the figure was 2 trillion and 450 billion US $6.

In September 2008, China held US Treasuries to US $585 billion, surpassing Japan for the first time and becoming the largest creditor country in the United States.

As of May 2010, the total amount of treasury bonds held by our country was US $867 billion 700 million.

The "double champion" has become the focus of attention all over the world, but this championship position is a bit like a pipe in the throat.

Indeed, as the largest treasury bond market in the world,

However, after the outbreak of the financial crisis, the United States adopted stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, the fiscal deficit rose sharply, and the proportion of the national debt to GDP increased, which triggered the market's concern about the security of assets in the US.

Our officials have repeatedly expressed their hope that the United States will take effective measures to ensure the security of US dollar assets.

"Owing to the arrangement of international currency,

When the world economy is faced with the two bottom risk era, American Treasury bonds seem to be a "hot potato".

Since 2009, the European sovereign debt crisis represented by the Greek crisis has been escalated and escalated. The euro has been on the decline, investors' risk aversion has risen significantly, and asset portfolios have begun to shift from risky assets to US Treasury bonds.

According to the international capital flows (TIC) data released by the US Treasury Department, foreign investors increased their holdings of US debt in April this year. All countries in the month increased their holdings of long-term bonds and short-term bonds. The top three creditors were none the less.

"As the international reserve currency, US Treasuries are irreplaceable in high liquidity and low risk assets.

The practice of pferring funds to the euro in 2009 to diversify risk has been proved to be short-sighted.

The US Treasury market is a safe haven.

Tao Dong, chief economist of Credit Suisse China, recently wrote.

He believes that from the perspective of debt burden capability, the US government's debt burden will continue to rise in the next few years. Net interest expense will be equivalent to 8.9% of revenue in 2009, reaching 11.4% in 2014, while in 2020, it is expected to reach 15.8%, which is slightly higher than the generally recognized 15% warning line. From the perspective of debt improvement capability, the US economy's medium term recovery capability is relatively strong, the tax revenue growth is ideal, and the competitiveness of the economy has not disappeared because of the crisis.

Therefore, Tao Dong believes that although the investors are wary of the financial situation of the United States and the rating agencies are also predicting risks, the sovereign credit rating of the US AAA is still hard to shake. "If Uncle Sam is not overly perverse, he will always be able to repay the old debts with new debts."

In fact, market judgment seems clearer at the moment.

On the one hand, the United States has strong technological innovation capability. In the long run, economic growth will not be a problem. It will still occupy the leading position in the world economy. On the other hand, although the discussion on the reform of the international monetary system is increasingly heated, the status quo of the US dollar as the international reserve currency is still difficult to change.

On the whole, as long as the US government does not further take measures to damage the credibility of the national debt, the US Treasury bonds will still have the investment attraction in the international market.