Analysis Of Economic Development Situation And Trend In The Second Half Of 2010

In the first half of the year, China's national economic development is in good shape and its price is basically stable. In the light of all aspects, there are many factors conducive to price stability in the second half of the year, and the total price level of the whole year will increase by 3%.

First half year

- the overall price level is basically stable.

Residents in the first half of the year

- prices of farm products have steadily increased.

Among them, grain prices rose steadily, and the prices of Japonica Rice and maize increased more.

Affected by adverse climatic conditions such as drought and low temperature in some areas this year, the state continued to raise the minimum grain purchase price and many other factors. Domestic grain prices continued to rise, and the prices of Japonica Rice and maize increased more.

Compared with last December, the average purchasing price of three kinds of grain, corn and wheat increased by 6.7% in May.

Among them, the purchase price of Japonica Rice and corn rose by 18.4% and 11.1% respectively.

With the adoption of a number of measures to strengthen regulation and control, grain prices are slowing down.

Compared with May, the purchasing price of Japonica rice decreased by 1% in June, and the corn purchasing price rose by 0.5 percentage points.

The price of finished grain is lower than that of raw grain.

Prices of vegetables and other agricultural products first rose and then fell.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, frequent natural disasters have led to a sharp rise in prices of agricultural products and other agricultural products.

Recently, with the improvement of weather and the increase of supply, the price of vegetable fruits has dropped sharply, which has become an important factor to drive the decline of the overall price level in 5 and June.

In the 0.6 percentage point drop in June, the impact of vegetable fruit was about 0.5 percentage points.

In addition, due to the decline in production and market speculation and other factors, prices of mung beans and garlic also surged sharply, and the state has stepped down after strengthening supervision and cracking down on speculation.

Hog prices have rebounded.

The price of live pig has been declining since the end of last year, and the relevant departments have started the regulation plan to prevent excessive fall in hog prices, which has stopped the trend of excessive pig prices falling. Since May, hog prices have stabilized and picked up.

In July 7th, the price of live pigs in large and medium-sized cities was 10.99 yuan per kilogram, and picked up slightly for 6 consecutive weeks. Recently, it has been maintained at around 10 yuan per kilogram, which is basically the same as that of the same period last year.

The price of edible vegetable oil has stabilized slightly.

Affected by the oversupply of oil and oil in the international market and the low price operation, domestic edible vegetable oil prices have dropped slightly.

In June, the retail prices of bulk soybean oil and rapeseed oil at the first level in 36 large and medium-sized cities were 4.57 yuan and 5.3 yuan per catty, respectively, 3.4% and 1.9% lower than the beginning of the year.

- the prices of producer goods fell at a high level.

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- real estate prices are stabilizing and showing signs of decline.

Since April this year, with the introduction of a series of policies to strengthen the real estate market regulation and control, the momentum of the rapid rise in housing prices has been initially curbed, and housing prices are stabilizing and showing signs of decline.

From 1 to June, the sales price of new housing increased by 1.7%, 1.3%, 1.2%, 1.4%, 0.4% and 0 respectively, showing a significant downward trend; second-hand housing sales prices fell for two consecutive months, with 0.9%, 0.4%, 1.3%, 1.7%, -0.4% and -0.3% respectively.

In June, prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen and other 29 cities began to fall.

- commodity prices surged down in the international market.

At the beginning of the year, the international market price continued to rise due to the recovery of the world economy and the recovery of the real economy.

But as the sovereign debt crisis intensified in Europe and investors' confidence was unstable, commodity prices fell again in the international market.

In July 9th, the London Metal Exchange, the price of electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic copper futures, international steel price index (CRU) and Newcastle BJ standard steam coal fell by 18.7%, 15.3%, 11.2% and 9.7%, respectively.

The monthly average price of WTI crude oil futures fluctuated at a range of 74 to 85 dollars per barrel, with a much smaller fluctuation than in previous years.

Under the overall pattern of oversupply, the price of wheat and corn in the international market steadily declined in the first half of the year, and the price of rice decreased significantly, and the main grain prices in the domestic market were higher than those in the international market.

At present, the price of wheat, corn and soybean on the Chicago futures exchange is 0.3 yuan, 0.47 yuan and 0.56 yuan lower than the average price of the main grain and oil wholesale market in China. After the freight and tariff in Shanghai, the CIF price is still lower than the domestic level.

Two, price trend analysis in the second half of the year

With a series of targeted control measures taken by the state to strengthen the regulation and control of the real estate market and increase the intensity of energy conservation and emission reduction, the overheated momentum of some industries has been initially curbed.

Judging from the current situation, China's macro-economy is expected to maintain stable operation in the second half of this year, and the total supply and demand of society will gradually become more balanced. It is necessary to achieve a year-round increase of about 3% of the total consumer price level.

Specifically,

First, the supply of important commodities is adequate.

The state reserves more grain and the reserves of soybeans and edible oils increase further. The supply of grain and oil markets is guaranteed.

Pig production was gradually adjusted on the basis of too much earlier stage. At the end of May, there were 434 million pig heads and 47 million sows, which were significantly more than those at the end of last year (the highest 470 million pigs).

Despite the possibility of a seasonal rise in hog prices in the second half of the year, the sharp rise is unlikely.

Two, market competition and price order stability.

At present, the pattern of total supply and demand has not changed much. With the government adopting a series of measures to strengthen price regulation, inflation expectations have obviously weakened, and market competition and price order are still in stable operation.

Although the cost of increasing the cost of the enterprises is greater, they are restricted by the competition pattern, and do not have the conditions for the price to rise universally or substantially in the short term.

Three, the pressure of imported inflation has obviously weakened.

In response to the financial crisis, China's investment and consumption growth is relatively rapid, and the contribution rate of foreign trade to economic growth has dropped significantly.

In the near future, China will further push forward the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the elasticity of RMB exchange rate, and cancel the export tax rebates of 406 tax number commodities in full, which will push China's import and export pattern more balanced and import inflation pressure will be reduced.

In addition, the price of agricultural products in the international market is much lower than that in China, and it also helps to curb the sharp rise in domestic prices.

Four is the ability of price regulation and control.

China has achieved remarkable results in coping with the international financial crisis. The national economy has maintained a good momentum of development, and its fiscal capacity, reserve strength and import and export adjustment capabilities have been further enhanced.

In recent years, China has accumulated two experiences of "double defense" in 2007 and coping with the international financial crisis in 2008.

Recently, I have taken comprehensive measures such as public opinion guidance, supervision and inspection, reserve and huff and puff to stabilize the price movements of some commodities.

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Taking all factors into consideration, the consumer price index will run at around 3% in the second half of the year if there is no sudden and abnormal events, and it will come down after October.

Food prices will show seasonal and seasonal fluctuations.

That is, 7 and August food prices continued to decline, the Mid Autumn Festival, the national day before and after the seasonal rise, and then fell slightly, at the end of the year rose again.

The price of living class may increase in a certain extent, mainly because of the contradiction between local rationalizing natural gas and other prices, and the adjustment of minimum wage and social security standards will increase the price of family services.

The prices of industrial consumer goods will continue to decline, mainly due to the loose supply and demand pattern of the whole society, and it is very difficult for upstream prices to rise downstream.

Because of the high price of food, the change of consumer price index is mainly influenced by food.

At present, in accordance with the central plan, we should maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic regulation and control policies, enhance pertinence and flexibility according to the changes in the economic situation, and improve the measures to regulate the economic operation by means of money, finance, industry and import and export, so as to basically balance the total supply and demand of the whole society, balance the money supply with the volume of commodities and services, and strive to stabilize the general level of prices.

At the same time, we should grasp the opportunity and intensity of price regulation and price reform, comprehensively use various means, rationally guide market expectations, and create a favorable price environment for stable and rapid economic growth.