Cotton City Short Strength Began To Accumulate &Nbsp; Cotton Prices Fell Pressure Increased.

Global

In Europe, Spain's credit rating is facing a downward trend.

According to the latest data released by the Spanish Central Bank (BankofSpain) on 19, Spain's non-performing loans increased to 100 billion 370 million euros in May, and broke through the 100 billion euro mark for the first time. The non-performing loan ratio was at the highest level in 15 years. Meanwhile, the number of bankrupt enterprises increased and the unemployment rate continued to rise, indicating that the bad credit situation is still restricting the economic development of Spain.

For this reason, Moodie is likely to downgrade Spain's credit rating after the summer. Once the official downgrade, it may create a new downward pressure on the whole European economy.

Although the European Central Bank almost ceased its purchase plan for public debt, the results of the European bank stress test are not optimistic.

Because if there is any bank default, the market reaction will become crazy, and even if there is no bank default, the market will not react well because the market will not believe this result, and the potential worry is even more intensified.

Therefore,

In the US, the performance of the economic data has been released continuously. The latest meeting of the Fed's latest discount rate also shows that the number of banks wishing to raise the emergency lending rate has been reduced due to cautious economic recovery in the US.

I believe that under the background of the financial supervision act in the United States, confidence in the capital market is losing.

Earlier, the University of Michigan consumer confidence report showed that the US consumer confidence index fell from 76 to 66.5 in July, far below the market average of 75, and the lowest since March 2009. The US government released data in June, showing that the US economic growth rate was 2.7% in the first quarter, due to the increase in consumer spending and the expansion of trade deficit, which was lower than expected. However, because the government no longer subsidised buyers, the monthly confidence index for pre-sale housing in the United States dropped to 14, the lowest level in 15 months. The new housing starts in the United States in June also fell 549 thousand to 5% after the quarterly adjustment, the lowest level since October 2009.

In addition, the Canadian Central Bank announced on 20 that it will raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and continue to lower its economic forecast. It is expected that the economy will expand 3.5% this year, lower than the expected level of 3.7% in April, and the growth rate of 2011 will be reduced from 3.1% to 2.9%.

The domestic cotton market will maintain adequate supply at the stage.

According to the results of a sample survey of cotton enterprises by China cotton information network, as of the end of June 2010, the total domestic cotton business inventories amounted to 1 million 900 thousand tons (including cotton and cotton entering the circulation link, excluding national cotton reserves). According to the national cotton market monitoring system sampling data, the national cotton industry inventory was about 1 million 93 thousand and 700 tons at the end of June.

We can see that the total stock in the market has reached a total of 2 million 950 thousand tons.

And now only 2 months from the new cotton market, according to the most optimistic estimate, two months of consumption forecast is only about 1 million 800 thousand tons, the supply of the market is enough.

At the same time, the state has also launched a big stick of macroeconomic regulation and control.

In June 25th, the China Cotton Association website warned that the national reserve plan for dumping and storing 600 thousand tons has been passed, plus the third new import quota of 800 thousand tons. We can see that the domestic cotton market will maintain an adequate supply before the new cotton market comes into the market.

Domestic cotton market is expected to increase production in the new year

The national cotton market monitoring system launched a cotton growing survey nationwide in late June 2010.

The sample involved 15 cotton planting provinces (autonomous regions), 81 cotton planting counties (cities and regiments), and 4440 designated cotton planting information 610 thousand acres of cotton fields.

According to the survey results, since June, the main cotton producing areas in China are in good weather, with slight occurrence of pests and diseases. The negative effects of low temperature on the cotton growth during the seeding period are offset, but the picking period may still be delayed for about 10 days.

If the weather is normal in the late period, it is estimated that the new cotton output will be increased by 89.63 kg / mu, 3.05% higher than that of last year, and the total output of cotton is expected to be 6 million 976 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 3.26% over the previous year.

To sum up, due to the aggravation of the unstable factors in the external market, raw material cotton is facing the risk of shrinking the downstream products export, which will seriously affect the confidence of the market.

With the domestic cotton market to maintain adequate supply, the market for the new year's expected increase in production, cotton prices are expected to continue to face downward pressure.